{ "programme_id": "vultax.prediction-market.transparency", "version": "0.1.0", "status": "proposed_private_prelaunch", "prepared_at": "2026-10-30", "title": "Vultax Prediction Market Transparency Review", "purpose": "Help prediction-market businesses improve their disclosures, market rules and data presentation through inspectable evidence and a fair improvement process.", "legal_effect": "A private scoped review. It does not confer a licence, accreditation, regulator approval, investment suitability or an assurance that a platform is safe.", "modules": [ { "id": "disclosures", "title": "Platform disclosures", "maximum_validity_days": 90 }, { "id": "rules", "title": "Contract rules and resolution", "maximum_validity_days": 90 }, { "id": "data", "title": "Market data and analytics", "maximum_validity_days": 30 } ], "decision_rule": "All applicable controls in selected modules must pass. A material unresolved issue, missing evidence or a conflict blocks a mark. No averaged score and no paid ranking.", "controls": [ { "id": "D01", "module": "disclosures", "title": "Identify the operator and product", "test": "Compare claimed legal operator, registration identifier and product role against an authoritative register or equivalent primary record. Record jurisdiction and exact product.", "acceptance": "Identity and role are corroborated; brand and legal entity are not conflated.", "independent_evidence_required": true, "allow_na": false, "evidence_max_age_days": 7, "mapping": "CFTC information and conflicts themes" }, { "id": "D02", "module": "disclosures", "title": "State regulatory claims precisely", "test": "Record exact licensing and registration claims. Check relevant official records for the named entity, permission, product and jurisdiction.", "acceptance": "Every material status claim is supported with scope and source date; no global legality implication.", "independent_evidence_required": true, "allow_na": false, "evidence_max_age_days": 7, "mapping": "Jurisdiction-specific official records" }, { "id": "D03", "module": "disclosures", "title": "Explain access restrictions", "test": "Compare public eligibility, territorial and age restrictions across onboarding and terms. Describe whether access enforcement was observed.", "acceptance": "The sample contains consistent disclosures; untested enforcement remains explicitly unassessed.", "independent_evidence_required": false, "allow_na": false, "evidence_max_age_days": 7, "mapping": "Vultax regulator and access methodology" }, { "id": "D04", "module": "disclosures", "title": "Explain charges and incentives", "test": "Reconcile fees, payout deductions, liquidity incentives and material paid relationships across the chosen interface, API and terms.", "acceptance": "Selected examples reproduce the disclosed fee arithmetic and identify exclusions.", "independent_evidence_required": true, "allow_na": false, "evidence_max_age_days": 7, "mapping": "CFTC information and conflicts themes" }, { "id": "D05", "module": "disclosures", "title": "Explain funds and settlement roles", "test": "Record who holds funds, how settlement is described, withdrawal conditions and any upstream venue relationship. Inspect supporting documents without requesting keys.", "acceptance": "Material public claims are supported or qualified, and unsupported insurance or guarantee claims are absent.", "independent_evidence_required": false, "allow_na": false, "evidence_max_age_days": 7, "mapping": "CFTC financial integrity and information themes" }, { "id": "D06", "module": "disclosures", "title": "Provide a usable complaint and correction route", "test": "Inspect published complaints, dispute escalation and factual correction processes, timing and responsible role. No unsolicited test messages.", "acceptance": "Routes and responsibilities are stated and usable from the inspected interface; response performance is claimed only if tested.", "independent_evidence_required": true, "allow_na": false, "evidence_max_age_days": 7, "mapping": "ISO process and appeals themes" }, { "id": "D07", "module": "disclosures", "title": "Disclose the evidence behind assurance claims", "test": "Check cited third-party audits, independence statements, publication dates and scope limitations against original reports.", "acceptance": "Assurance claims match the exact report, version and scope; no badge substitutes for a licence.", "independent_evidence_required": true, "allow_na": true, "evidence_max_age_days": 7, "mapping": "ISO verification and impartiality themes" }, { "id": "D08", "module": "disclosures", "title": "Make changes and conflicts visible", "test": "Inspect change logs, effective dates, conflict disclosures, material terms changes and notice commitments.", "acceptance": "Material terms have identifiable versions and known conflicts are explained without implying that disclosure eliminates the conflict.", "independent_evidence_required": false, "allow_na": false, "evidence_max_age_days": 7, "mapping": "CFTC conflicts and recordkeeping themes" }, { "id": "R01", "module": "rules", "title": "Define each sampled outcome", "test": "Freeze sampled contract text, identifiers and answer options before evaluation. Test concrete boundary examples.", "acceptance": "An independent reader can determine which stated outcome applies to each tested example.", "independent_evidence_required": true, "allow_na": false, "evidence_max_age_days": 7, "mapping": "CFTC contract design themes" }, { "id": "R02", "module": "rules", "title": "Name an authoritative resolution source", "test": "Record the source, backup hierarchy and what happens if it changes, disappears or corrects its data.", "acceptance": "The source and fallback order are explicit and the sampled source is identifiable.", "independent_evidence_required": true, "allow_na": false, "evidence_max_age_days": 7, "mapping": "CFTC contract design themes" }, { "id": "R03", "module": "rules", "title": "Specify time and data cutoffs", "test": "Record timezone, event deadline, source publication cutoff and late or revised data treatment.", "acceptance": "All sampled boundary cases have an explicit rule or a disclosed unresolved limitation.", "independent_evidence_required": true, "allow_na": false, "evidence_max_age_days": 7, "mapping": "Vultax timing research and contract design" }, { "id": "R04", "module": "rules", "title": "Explain cancellation and exceptional outcomes", "test": "Test postponement, abandonment, contradictory sources and other relevant exceptional cases.", "acceptance": "Relevant exceptional outcomes and payout treatment are stated; absence is recorded as a gap.", "independent_evidence_required": true, "allow_na": false, "evidence_max_age_days": 7, "mapping": "CFTC contract design themes" }, { "id": "R05", "module": "rules", "title": "Explain resolution and dispute authority", "test": "Identify who proposes, decides and can challenge a resolution, deadlines, costs and conflicts.", "acceptance": "A participant can identify the decision route and challenge conditions from the frozen rules.", "independent_evidence_required": false, "allow_na": false, "evidence_max_age_days": 7, "mapping": "CFTC dispute resolution and conflicts themes" }, { "id": "R06", "module": "rules", "title": "Preserve rule versions", "test": "Compare visible rules, linked terms, API metadata and retained versions for the chosen sample.", "acceptance": "Material conflicts are absent or resolved, and amendments are traceable with effective dates.", "independent_evidence_required": true, "allow_na": false, "evidence_max_age_days": 7, "mapping": "CFTC recordkeeping themes" }, { "id": "R07", "module": "rules", "title": "Reconcile a settlement sample", "test": "Select all eligible settlements in a preregistered bounded population or a reproducible sample; compare outcome, source and rule version.", "acceptance": "Sampled outcomes follow the recorded rule; unsettled or unobservable cases are retained as limitations.", "independent_evidence_required": true, "allow_na": true, "evidence_max_age_days": 7, "mapping": "Vultax settlement studies" }, { "id": "R08", "module": "rules", "title": "Review ambiguity independently", "test": "Use two readers for the same fixed edge cases; record disagreements and resolution before any mark decision.", "acceptance": "Material reader disagreement is resolved by a documented rule or remains a blocking gap.", "independent_evidence_required": true, "allow_na": false, "evidence_max_age_days": 7, "mapping": "COS independent verification practices" }, { "id": "M01", "module": "data", "title": "Identify the measured data", "test": "Record venue, contract, outcome, unit, timestamp semantics and source/collection clocks for each sampled endpoint.", "acceptance": "Every displayed number can be tied to the correct contract and measurement definition.", "independent_evidence_required": true, "allow_na": false, "evidence_max_age_days": 1, "mapping": "Vultax data provenance methodology" }, { "id": "M02", "module": "data", "title": "Measure freshness", "test": "Measure age distributions over an agreed window with clock checks and separate capture, API and screen latency.", "acceptance": "Predeclared thresholds and percentiles are reported; a median is not presented as a maximum.", "independent_evidence_required": true, "allow_na": false, "evidence_max_age_days": 1, "mapping": "Vultax latency study" }, { "id": "M03", "module": "data", "title": "Report gaps and outages", "test": "Measure missingness, sequence gaps where available and failures at the storage/output layer. Preserve exclusions.", "acceptance": "Gaps are counted; unknown values stay unknown; carried-forward values are labelled.", "independent_evidence_required": true, "allow_na": false, "evidence_max_age_days": 1, "mapping": "Vultax coverage study" }, { "id": "M04", "module": "data", "title": "Explain prices and tradeable size", "test": "Reconcile bid, ask, last trade, midpoint, depth and hypothetical execution cost for a fixed sample and size.", "acceptance": "Displayed labels and examples match what was measured; an illustrative quote is not claimed as an executed fill.", "independent_evidence_required": true, "allow_na": false, "evidence_max_age_days": 1, "mapping": "Vultax order-book and copying-cost methodology" }, { "id": "M05", "module": "data", "title": "Reproduce fees and computed metrics", "test": "Recompute selected fee, P&L, return or score examples using stated inputs, exclusions and version.", "acceptance": "All in-scope material arithmetic reproduces within the preregistered tolerance; unsupported history stays unverified.", "independent_evidence_required": true, "allow_na": false, "evidence_max_age_days": 1, "mapping": "COS computational reproducibility" }, { "id": "M06", "module": "data", "title": "Define populations and selection", "test": "State which wallets, contracts, markets and times are included, the sample selection and known coverage bias.", "acceptance": "The reported result is limited to the measured population; a wallet is not treated as an identified person.", "independent_evidence_required": true, "allow_na": false, "evidence_max_age_days": 1, "mapping": "COS study registration and reporting practices" }, { "id": "M07", "module": "data", "title": "Preserve reproducible evidence lawfully", "test": "Check calculation version, source artefact hashes, reviewer access and permitted retention and publication.", "acceptance": "Another authorised reviewer can reproduce the in-scope result; a hash alone is not represented as access to the data.", "independent_evidence_required": true, "allow_na": false, "evidence_max_age_days": 1, "mapping": "COS code and data transparency" }, { "id": "M08", "module": "data", "title": "Present uncertainty without overclaiming", "test": "Check whether risk flags, backtests, simulated fills and heuristic scores have accurate labels and limitations.", "acceptance": "No sampled statement turns a statistical flag into proven misconduct, a simulated result into a return, or a score into legal compliance.", "independent_evidence_required": true, "allow_na": false, "evidence_max_age_days": 1, "mapping": "Vultax limitations and charter" } ], "reference_qualification": "Mappings are design references, not assertions of compliance with a law or full ISO standard." }