# Best Polymarket Traders: 36 Wallets Took 44% of Gains; Winners Repeat 41–51% of the Time

Publication scope revised on 28 October 2026; body SHA-256: `96da77fce11d1cb55b2084064d5230e56645b7ffeec221c776eed0313ddd3d6d`.

The original selected arithmetic or conditional formulas are retained for the remaining Polymarket analysis. No new source observations or new formal-verification run are claimed.

- The displayed profitable-wallet shares differ by 53.7 percentage points. (`best_polymarket_traders_leaderboards_1`; arithmetic).
- The three cumulative shares of gains are ordered and remain below 100%. (`best_polymarket_traders_leaderboards_2`; arithmetic).
- Displayed Profitable wallets values lie between 0 and 100 in section-activity-is-the-first-filter-chart. (`best_polymarket_traders_leaderboards_3`; displayed-value-domain).
- Displayed Share of gains values lie between 0 and 100 in section-most-wallets-closed-nothing-and-a-few-closed-a-lot-chart. (`best_polymarket_traders_leaderboards_4`; displayed-value-domain).
- Displayed Wallets with a gain values lie between 0 and 100 in section-breadth-and-results-chart. (`best_polymarket_traders_leaderboards_5`; displayed-value-domain).

Outside the proof:

- Authenticity, completeness and accuracy of source observations.
- Data collection, sampling, classification, bootstrap intervals and causal inference.
- Current prices, policy, legal status, allegations, product claims and future outcomes.
- Production code correctness, execution, available liquidity and profitability.

[Selected Lean calculations](../LibraryChecks.lean). [Mathematical definitions](../ResearchModels.lean). [About this public subset](../README.md).