# What the Market Expected: 153 Historical Economic-Event Auctions

Scope checked against the publication dated 25 October 2026.

Selected calculations checked in Lean. The empirical study is not formally proved.

Calculation and displayed-value checks:

- The four indicator counts account for the stated 153 releases. (`economic_derivatives_auction_archive_1`; arithmetic).
- Finite-range, open-tail and boundary outcomes partition the stated 153 releases. (`economic_derivatives_auction_archive_2`; arithmetic).
- The reported cumulative lower mass and the realised-range mass give the stated upper mass. (`economic_derivatives_auction_archive_3`; arithmetic).
- The smaller stated finite bin has the higher probability density per job. (`economic_derivatives_auction_archive_4`; arithmetic).

The density comparison assumes the stated finite widths of 20,000 and 10,000 jobs. It does not redistribute mass within a range, resolve boundary settlement, renormalise published probabilities, validate original-file parsing or establish calibration or forecast skill.

Outside the proof:

- Authenticity, completeness and accuracy of source observations.
- Data collection, sampling, classification, bootstrap intervals and causal inference.
- Current prices, policy, legal status, allegations, product claims and future outcomes.
- Production code correctness, execution, available liquidity and profitability.

[Machine-readable scope and exact input locations](economic-derivatives-auction-archive.json). [Lean calculations](../LibraryChecks.lean). [Mathematical definitions](../ResearchModels.lean). [Verification record](../verification.json). [Complete package](../proofs.zip).

Body SHA-256: `ae751e9adb20f8724e1d00b2d2cd9d756f92962da4fe61c90535a3cff6c4ec60`. Source observations are premises, not conclusions of the proofs.

25 Oct 2026: the publication seed gained a credited photograph (the image block only). The scope is unchanged. Previous body SHA-256: ae751e9adb20f8724e1d00b2d2cd9d756f92962da4fe61c90535a3cff6c4ec60.

25 Oct 2026: the body hash now leaves out the photograph block (image), as it already left out sources and updatedAt. The scope is unchanged. Previous body SHA-256: 2a375255bfd2d5cf8865c57e2ef9578e68e63c090dc19c49d27213b2cb88f2c8.