# Settlement times of 110,576 Polymarket markets, 15 August to 10 September 2026

Historical scope checked against the publication dated 25 October 2026. This record describes that earlier version; subsequent page changes are not covered.

Selected calculations checked in Lean. The empirical study is not formally proved.

Calculation and displayed-value checks:

- The three September listing states account for all 121,432 listings. (`how_long_polymarket_takes_to_settle_markets_1`; arithmetic).
- Disputed share agrees with the displayed counts and precision (volume row 1). (`how_long_polymarket_takes_to_settle_markets_2`; arithmetic).
- Disputed share agrees with the displayed counts and precision (volume row 2). (`how_long_polymarket_takes_to_settle_markets_3`; arithmetic).
- Disputed share agrees with the displayed counts and precision (volume row 3). (`how_long_polymarket_takes_to_settle_markets_4`; arithmetic).
- Disputed share agrees with the displayed counts and precision (volume row 4). (`how_long_polymarket_takes_to_settle_markets_5`; arithmetic).
- Displayed 15 August to 10 September values lie between 0 and 100 in september-median-chart. (`how_long_polymarket_takes_to_settle_markets_6`; displayed-value-domain).
- Displayed 11 to 18 September values lie between 0 and 100 in september-median-chart. (`how_long_polymarket_takes_to_settle_markets_7`; displayed-value-domain).


Outside the proof:

- Authenticity, completeness and accuracy of source observations.
- Data collection, sampling, classification, bootstrap intervals and causal inference.
- Current prices, policy, legal status, allegations, product claims and future outcomes.
- Production code correctness, execution, available liquidity and profitability.

[Selected Lean calculations](../LibraryChecks.lean). [Mathematical definitions](../ResearchModels.lean). [About this public subset](../README.md).

Body SHA-256: `cf9f74a8471c8e76823643c2aac607408669535550e219496c638144bb29f665`. Source observations are premises, not conclusions of the proofs.

25 Oct 2026: the body hash now leaves out the photograph block (image), as it already left out sources and updatedAt. The scope is unchanged. Previous body SHA-256: 4d295f1af215430cf09b2f693a8e556bcd4f255d74361350b766381f07998106.