# A long-shot screen on historical Polymarket fills: base rates and a correction

Historical scope checked against the publication dated 25 October 2026. This record describes that earlier version; subsequent page changes are not covered.

Selected calculations checked in Lean. The empirical study is not formally proved.

Calculation and displayed-value checks:

- The public-activity audit shares follow from the two groups of 250 wallets (row 1). (`polymarket_longshot_insider_screen_base_rate_1`; arithmetic).
- The public-activity audit shares follow from the two groups of 250 wallets (row 2). (`polymarket_longshot_insider_screen_base_rate_2`; arithmetic).
- The wallet-age bands account for 14,733 wallets. (`polymarket_longshot_insider_screen_base_rate_3`; arithmetic).
- The outcome-sorted win-rate bands account for 4,966 wallets. (`polymarket_longshot_insider_screen_base_rate_4`; arithmetic).
- Displayed Bets that won values lie between 0 and 100 in win-rate-chart. (`polymarket_longshot_insider_screen_base_rate_5`; displayed-value-domain).
- Displayed Average price paid values lie between 0 and 100 in win-rate-chart. (`polymarket_longshot_insider_screen_base_rate_6`; displayed-value-domain).
- Displayed Share of wallets values lie between 0 and 100 in strata-chart. (`polymarket_longshot_insider_screen_base_rate_7`; displayed-value-domain).

The record does not prove that a flagged wallet is an insider, that a sample is unbiased, or that the null model or uncertainty intervals are appropriate.

Outside the proof:

- Authenticity, completeness and accuracy of source observations.
- Data collection, sampling, classification, bootstrap intervals and causal inference.
- Current prices, policy, legal status, allegations, product claims and future outcomes.
- Production code correctness, execution, available liquidity and profitability.

[Selected Lean calculations](../LibraryChecks.lean). [Mathematical definitions](../ResearchModels.lean). [About this public subset](../README.md).

Body SHA-256: `7078c5a871e1b16e74fb88b5932ab283a3d913e3024a084c1020f56af29e00a7`. Source observations are premises, not conclusions of the proofs.

25 Oct 2026: the body hash now leaves out the photograph block (image), as it already left out sources and updatedAt. The scope is unchanged. Previous body SHA-256: 896393d1f9cf02248d74220ef8ed4a0de4e4841031253b4cf53080d7e6092926.

25 Oct 2026: the publication seed gained a figure row (the signals block only), taken from figures and statements already on the page. The scope is unchanged. Previous body SHA-256: 1adcfe16fdef789412318e1064e4bb6760c2615eb0199fca6a567b8412246767.