# Regulatory actions on Polymarket and Kalshi in Europe

Historical scope checked against the publication dated 25 October 2026. This record describes that earlier version; subsequent page changes are not covered.

Selected calculations checked in Lean. The empirical study is not formally proved.

Calculation and displayed-value checks:

- The observed anomalous-or-failed test fraction rounds to the displayed country percentage (row 1). (`prediction_markets_europe_regulation_tracker_1`; arithmetic).
- The observed anomalous-or-failed test fraction rounds to the displayed country percentage (row 2). (`prediction_markets_europe_regulation_tracker_2`; arithmetic).
- The observed anomalous-or-failed test fraction rounds to the displayed country percentage (row 3). (`prediction_markets_europe_regulation_tracker_3`; arithmetic).
- The observed anomalous-or-failed test fraction rounds to the displayed country percentage (row 4). (`prediction_markets_europe_regulation_tracker_4`; arithmetic).
- Displayed polymarket.com values lie between 0 and 100 in measured-chart. (`prediction_markets_europe_regulation_tracker_5`; displayed-value-domain).

OONI test arithmetic does not prove current access, universal blocking, legal status, an authority’s intent or the completeness of volunteer testing. Entries with no tests remain unmeasured.

Outside the proof:

- Authenticity, completeness and accuracy of source observations.
- Data collection, sampling, classification, bootstrap intervals and causal inference.
- Current prices, policy, legal status, allegations, product claims and future outcomes.
- Production code correctness, execution, available liquidity and profitability.

[Selected Lean calculations](../LibraryChecks.lean). [Mathematical definitions](../ResearchModels.lean). [About this public subset](../README.md).

Body SHA-256: `71bb840fa66774735efdad7af79f23cd0b7bc8e66fb9e807184c6278f3887cdd`. Source observations are premises, not conclusions of the proofs.

25 Oct 2026: the body hash now leaves out the photograph block (image), as it already left out sources and updatedAt. The scope is unchanged. Previous body SHA-256: ad7b0bc6070b660666df8736a3865512b7f4e90b8c9363c19928012528865fc9.

26 Oct 2026: the publication's UK rows were read again at source, adding the Gambling Commission's statement of 4 February, IG View Limited's pending application on the Commission's register and the FCA's feedback statement FS26/3 of 16 October, which takes the record to 53 actions. The checked OONI arithmetic and its inputs are unchanged. It remains document-based; no proof of its factual or legal claims is claimed. Previous body SHA-256: fb42c7c9479ac9bcf67047be3834555d170f8773aa2e67d6e8a2e51436997779.

28 Oct 2026: the publication adds the Malta Gaming Authority's written follow-up of 27 October, which names Type 3 and Type 2 as the licences for prediction markets, and Hacksaw's Type 3 authorisation as read on the authority's register, which takes the record to 54 actions. The checked OONI arithmetic and its inputs are unchanged. It remains document-based; no proof of its factual or legal claims is claimed. Previous body SHA-256: f7eed26fc52749e11861bd7103677c937833c77bf542d1f66e5f428656375e39.

28 Oct 2026, correction: the publication's Malta paragraph and its 17 October row now say that the authority's first answer, of 16 October, already named Type 2 and Type 3 licences; the record stays at 54 actions. The checked OONI arithmetic and its inputs are unchanged. It remains document-based; no proof of its factual or legal claims is claimed. Previous body SHA-256: 61f269ed2baeda38037cd4d55d9e610aecc92c632af5ee83b6d2d25791dfa504.

28 Oct 2026: the publication adds Slovakia and written answers and documents from Belgium, Lithuania, ESMA, the FCA and Sweden, taking the record to 63 entries, 24 national jurisdictions and seventeen blocking jurisdictions. Sweden reported no prohibition. The checked OONI arithmetic and its inputs are unchanged; OONI has no Slovak tests in the window. It remains document-based; no proof of its factual or legal claims is claimed. Previous body SHA-256: 6ce4e31fab4c9332ba9cb4b1d3ee9721f103eb03d374c93f993f187d84df3234.