# Nobel Peace Prize odds: 2026 result, saved forecast and 2025 study

Historical scope checked against the publication dated 25 October 2026. This record describes that earlier version; subsequent page changes are not covered.

Selected calculations checked in Lean. The empirical study is not formally proved.

Calculation and displayed-value checks:

- The quoted minute-table endpoints differ by 69.05 percentage points. (`nobel_peace_prize_odds_before_announcement_1`; arithmetic).
- Displayed Machado Yes price values lie between 0 and 100 in the-2025-move-chart. (`nobel_peace_prize_odds_before_announcement_2`; displayed-value-domain).
- The chart’s annotated change agrees with its sampled endpoints at the stated precision. (`nobel_peace_prize_odds_before_announcement_3`; arithmetic).

Minute-table changes and the chart’s ten-minute sampled arrow are separate calculations, with separate endpoints. A price move is not proof of insider trading.

Outside the proof:

- Authenticity, completeness and accuracy of source observations.
- Data collection, sampling, classification, bootstrap intervals and causal inference.
- Current prices, policy, legal status, allegations, product claims and future outcomes.
- Production code correctness, execution, available liquidity and profitability.

[Selected Lean calculations](../LibraryChecks.lean). [Mathematical definitions](../ResearchModels.lean). [About this public subset](../README.md).

Body SHA-256: `011ac3d822720262e397d29dd211994703b26d273610e4de5ca02c9e08813a5d`. Source observations are premises, not conclusions of the proofs.

25 Oct 2026: the body hash now leaves out the photograph block (image), as it already left out sources and updatedAt. The scope is unchanged. Previous body SHA-256: 03e6642f09eba5083c2a6aa4c3f89ad97973ae03087c52ed1d0750a6881414a4.

27 Oct 2026: the article text was updated after the event. The checked tables and calculations are unchanged, so the scope is unchanged. Previous body SHA-256: bfc8118618525c2f46915db54d8ddae3b7c78d1853b23f8d504cd7fabaacb53d.