{
  "schemaVersion": "vultax-feature-mirror-v1",
  "slug": "backtesting",
  "title": "Replayed Strategy Results on Prediction Markets",
  "description": "A fixed rule replayed against published price history, with printed-price fills and a stated fee on every trade.",
  "mirrorSummary": "A fixed rule replayed against published price history, with printed-price fills and a stated fee on every trade.",
  "canonicalUrl": "https://vultax.com/features/backtesting",
  "availability": {
    "status": "shipping-soon",
    "message": "Vultax publishes a replayed paper record you can read today. Running your own backtest is in private preview and is not enabled by any plan."
  },
  "workspace": {
    "label": "Open Vi Bots in the app",
    "url": "https://app.vultax.com/strategy-lab"
  },
  "downloads": {
    "json": "https://vultax.com/features/backtesting/data.json",
    "markdown": "https://vultax.com/features/backtesting/page.md",
    "schema": "https://vultax.com/features/schema.json"
  },
  "tables": [
    {
      "id": "house-bot-record",
      "title": "The replayed result, in full",
      "description": "What the published rule produced on paper over the run so far, including the assumed costs.",
      "coverage": "Bankroll 10000 USD, 250 USD per position, running since 2026-09-01T00:00:00Z. One rule, one universe, one run.",
      "columns": [
        {
          "key": "equity",
          "label": "Paper equity",
          "format": "usd",
          "unit": "USD"
        },
        {
          "key": "pnl",
          "label": "Profit and loss",
          "format": "usd",
          "unit": "USD"
        },
        {
          "key": "closed",
          "label": "Closed trades",
          "format": "number",
          "unit": null
        },
        {
          "key": "hitRate",
          "label": "Hit rate",
          "format": "percent",
          "unit": "%"
        },
        {
          "key": "drawdown",
          "label": "Largest drawdown",
          "format": "percent",
          "unit": "%"
        },
        {
          "key": "fees",
          "label": "Assumed fees paid",
          "format": "usd",
          "unit": "USD"
        }
      ],
      "rows": [
        {
          "id": "run",
          "values": {
            "equity": 9850.78,
            "pnl": -149.22,
            "closed": 12,
            "hitRate": 33.3,
            "drawdown": 1.91,
            "fees": 59.1
          }
        }
      ],
      "notes": [
        "Every trade is charged an assumed 1.00% fee. On a contract priced in cents that assumption decides the sign of the result more often than the rule does.",
        "A hit rate over a small number of closed trades is not a measure of skill. Read the decision log before the summary.",
        "Paper equity is simulated. No money was at risk and no order reached a venue."
      ],
      "kind": "market-snapshot",
      "status": "fresh",
      "statusReason": "Within this table’s source-time freshness window; prices can change between observations.",
      "observedAt": "2026-09-14T09:00:00.000Z",
      "modifiedAt": null,
      "rowCount": 1,
      "sources": [
        {
          "label": "Vultax paper bot pack · run metrics",
          "url": "https://vultax.com/live/paperbot.json"
        }
      ],
      "downloads": {
        "json": "https://vultax.com/features/backtesting/data.json?dataset=house-bot-record",
        "csv": "https://vultax.com/features/backtesting/data.csv?dataset=house-bot-record"
      }
    }
  ],
  "research": [
    {
      "title": "We Tested Polymarket Prices Against 6,776 Resolved Markets. Here's Where They Bend.",
      "url": "https://vultax.com/research/prediction-market-fair-value-calibration",
      "publishedAt": "2026-09-08",
      "description": "Original Vultax research: in an experimental test, a calibrated fair-value model beat raw Polymarket prices by ~9.6% on held-out Brier score. Where the favorite-longshot effect lives, what the model can honestly flag, and why it still isn't a trading edge."
    }
  ],
  "related": [
    {
      "slug": "vi-bots",
      "title": "Vi Bots: the Published Paper Record",
      "url": "https://vultax.com/features/vi-bots"
    },
    {
      "slug": "prediction-desk",
      "title": "Polymarket vs Kalshi: Prediction Market Prices",
      "url": "https://vultax.com/features/prediction-desk"
    },
    {
      "slug": "wallet-intelligence",
      "title": "Polymarket Trader Rankings and Wallet Research",
      "url": "https://vultax.com/features/wallet-intelligence"
    }
  ],
  "limitations": [
    "Public tables mirror existing Vultax source packs. They do not include account data, private watchlists or the complete app dataset.",
    "Source time, coverage and limitations apply to each table. Missing values are unavailable, not zero."
  ]
}