{
  "schemaVersion": "vultax-feature-mirror-v1",
  "slug": "event-trackers",
  "title": "Fed Decision Tracker: Market Prices and Sources",
  "description": "Follow the Fed meetings already covered by Vultax’s prediction pack, with linked Federal Reserve releases from the existing event feed.",
  "mirrorSummary": "Follow the Fed meetings already covered by Vultax’s prediction pack, with linked Federal Reserve releases from the existing event feed.",
  "canonicalUrl": "https://vultax.com/features/event-trackers",
  "availability": {
    "status": "live",
    "message": "Event monitors are available. Some sources may need a refresh; check the status shown in each room."
  },
  "workspace": {
    "label": "Open the Vultax workspace",
    "url": "https://app.vultax.com/predictions/topic"
  },
  "downloads": {
    "json": "https://vultax.com/features/event-trackers/data.json",
    "markdown": "https://vultax.com/features/event-trackers/page.md",
    "schema": "https://vultax.com/features/schema.json"
  },
  "tables": [
    {
      "id": "fed-contract-comparison",
      "title": "Fed contract prices: Polymarket and Kalshi",
      "description": "The matching contract rows already assembled by Vultax’s prediction pack.",
      "coverage": "Only the Fed meeting/contract combinations shown. Prices are percentages of a $1 payout; they are not forecasts of guaranteed outcomes.",
      "columns": [
        {
          "key": "meeting",
          "label": "Meeting",
          "format": "text",
          "unit": null
        },
        {
          "key": "date",
          "label": "Decision date",
          "format": "text",
          "unit": null
        },
        {
          "key": "contract",
          "label": "Contract",
          "format": "text",
          "unit": null
        },
        {
          "key": "pm",
          "label": "Polymarket",
          "format": "percent",
          "unit": "%"
        },
        {
          "key": "kalshi",
          "label": "Kalshi",
          "format": "percent",
          "unit": "%"
        },
        {
          "key": "gap",
          "label": "PM − Kalshi",
          "format": "number",
          "unit": "percentage points"
        }
      ],
      "rows": [
        {
          "id": "contract-0",
          "values": {
            "meeting": "September",
            "date": "2026-09-16",
            "contract": "25 bp increase",
            "pm": 100,
            "kalshi": 50,
            "gap": 50
          }
        },
        {
          "id": "contract-1",
          "values": {
            "meeting": "September",
            "date": "2026-09-16",
            "contract": "No change",
            "pm": 0,
            "kalshi": 50,
            "gap": -50
          }
        },
        {
          "id": "contract-2",
          "values": {
            "meeting": "September",
            "date": "2026-09-16",
            "contract": "25 bp decrease",
            "pm": 0,
            "kalshi": 50,
            "gap": -50
          }
        },
        {
          "id": "contract-3",
          "values": {
            "meeting": "October",
            "date": "2026-10-28",
            "contract": "25 bp increase",
            "pm": 54.5,
            "kalshi": 55.5,
            "gap": -1
          }
        },
        {
          "id": "contract-4",
          "values": {
            "meeting": "October",
            "date": "2026-10-28",
            "contract": "No change",
            "pm": 43.5,
            "kalshi": 44.5,
            "gap": -1
          }
        },
        {
          "id": "contract-5",
          "values": {
            "meeting": "October",
            "date": "2026-10-28",
            "contract": "25 bp decrease",
            "pm": 0.65,
            "kalshi": 0.5,
            "gap": 0.2
          }
        },
        {
          "id": "contract-6",
          "values": {
            "meeting": "December",
            "date": "2026-12-09",
            "contract": "25 bp increase",
            "pm": 67.5,
            "kalshi": 66.5,
            "gap": 1
          }
        },
        {
          "id": "contract-7",
          "values": {
            "meeting": "December",
            "date": "2026-12-09",
            "contract": "No change",
            "pm": 30.5,
            "kalshi": 30.5,
            "gap": 0
          }
        },
        {
          "id": "contract-8",
          "values": {
            "meeting": "December",
            "date": "2026-12-09",
            "contract": "25 bp decrease",
            "pm": 2.2,
            "kalshi": 1.5,
            "gap": 0.7
          }
        }
      ],
      "notes": [
        "Polymarket Gamma prices and Kalshi bid/ask midpoint or last-price fallback come from the source pack. They are collected sequentially.",
        "Contract wording, settlement terms, fees and available depth must be checked at each venue. A displayed gap is not an executable arbitrage return.",
        "The pack’s asOf records the parent Fed-pack refresh, not an exchange tick timestamp. Failed parent components can retain older observations."
      ],
      "kind": "market-snapshot",
      "status": "fresh",
      "statusReason": "Within this table’s source-time freshness window; prices can change between observations.",
      "observedAt": "2026-09-18T19:20:02.000Z",
      "modifiedAt": null,
      "rowCount": 9,
      "sources": [
        {
          "label": "Vultax prediction pack · Polymarket Gamma and Kalshi",
          "url": "https://vultax.com/live/prediction.json"
        }
      ],
      "downloads": {
        "json": "https://vultax.com/features/prediction-desk/data.json?dataset=fed-contract-comparison",
        "csv": "https://vultax.com/features/prediction-desk/data.csv?dataset=fed-contract-comparison"
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "fed-source-feed",
      "title": "Federal Reserve source releases",
      "description": "Headline links from the existing source feed. Original articles remain with their publishers.",
      "coverage": "The configured feed’s latest returned items. Pack refresh time and each item’s publication time are distinct; the pack can retain earlier items on upstream failure.",
      "columns": [
        {
          "key": "title",
          "label": "Source headline",
          "format": "text",
          "unit": null
        },
        {
          "key": "source",
          "label": "Publisher",
          "format": "text",
          "unit": null
        },
        {
          "key": "published",
          "label": "Published",
          "format": "datetime",
          "unit": "UTC"
        }
      ],
      "rows": [
        {
          "id": "source-0",
          "values": {
            "title": "Federal Reserve Board announces termination of enforcement action with SNB Bancshares and Bank of Eufaula",
            "source": "Federal Reserve",
            "published": "2026-09-18T15:00:00.000Z"
          },
          "links": {
            "title": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/enforcement20260918b.htm"
          }
        },
        {
          "id": "source-1",
          "values": {
            "title": "Federal Reserve Board issues enforcement actions with former employee of Northstar Bank, former employee of American Express Travel Related Services Company, In",
            "source": "Federal Reserve",
            "published": "2026-09-18T15:00:00.000Z"
          },
          "links": {
            "title": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/enforcement20260918a.htm"
          }
        },
        {
          "id": "source-2",
          "values": {
            "title": "Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement",
            "source": "Federal Reserve",
            "published": "2026-09-16T18:00:00.000Z"
          },
          "links": {
            "title": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260916a.htm"
          }
        },
        {
          "id": "source-3",
          "values": {
            "title": "Federal Reserve Board and Federal Open Market Committee release economic projections from the September 15-16 FOMC meeting",
            "source": "Federal Reserve",
            "published": "2026-09-16T18:00:00.000Z"
          },
          "links": {
            "title": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260916b.htm"
          }
        },
        {
          "id": "source-4",
          "values": {
            "title": "Agencies seek comment on proposed third-party risk management guidance and issue statement on community bank engagement with core service providers",
            "source": "Federal Reserve",
            "published": "2026-09-11T14:00:00.000Z"
          },
          "links": {
            "title": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/bcreg20260911a.htm"
          }
        },
        {
          "id": "source-5",
          "values": {
            "title": "Agencies reduce regulatory burden for community banks, increase eligibility for 18-month exam cycle",
            "source": "Federal Reserve",
            "published": "2026-09-10T20:00:00.000Z"
          },
          "links": {
            "title": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/bcreg20260910a.htm"
          }
        }
      ],
      "notes": [
        "Headlines are source statements, not independently verified Vultax findings. Follow the original source for context.",
        "Unparseable source dates remain unavailable; no dates are invented from the time of the page request."
      ],
      "kind": "source-index",
      "status": "fresh",
      "statusReason": "Feed snapshot retrieved by the source; individual items keep their publication dates.",
      "observedAt": "2026-09-18T19:20:02.000Z",
      "modifiedAt": null,
      "rowCount": 6,
      "sources": [
        {
          "label": "Vultax Fed pack · Federal Reserve RSS",
          "url": "https://vultax.com/live/fed.json"
        }
      ],
      "downloads": {
        "json": "https://vultax.com/features/event-trackers/data.json?dataset=fed-source-feed",
        "csv": "https://vultax.com/features/event-trackers/data.csv?dataset=fed-source-feed"
      }
    }
  ],
  "research": [
    {
      "title": "Fed Decision Odds, Scored: Polymarket vs Kalshi at Every 2026 FOMC Meeting",
      "url": "https://vultax.com/research/fed-september-decision-coin-flip-polymarket-kalshi",
      "publishedAt": "2026-09-06",
      "description": "How Polymarket and Kalshi priced each 2026 FOMC decision, scored against the outcome. Both venues had the 16 September hike at 87.5% an hour out; the multi-outcome Brier was 0.029 on Polymarket and 0.031 on Kalshi. Next decision 27–28 October."
    }
  ],
  "related": [
    {
      "slug": "prediction-desk",
      "title": "Polymarket vs Kalshi: Prediction Market Prices",
      "url": "https://vultax.com/features/prediction-desk"
    },
    {
      "slug": "event-intelligence",
      "title": "Crypto Market News and Exchange Status",
      "url": "https://vultax.com/features/event-intelligence"
    },
    {
      "slug": "market-analytics",
      "title": "Crypto Market Analytics by Exchange",
      "url": "https://vultax.com/features/market-analytics"
    }
  ],
  "limitations": [
    "Public tables mirror existing Vultax source packs. They do not include account data, private watchlists or the complete app dataset.",
    "Source time, coverage and limitations apply to each table. Missing values are unavailable, not zero."
  ]
}