# Fed Decision Tracker: Market Prices and Sources

Follow the Fed meetings already covered by Vultax’s prediction pack, with linked Federal Reserve releases from the existing event feed.

Canonical: https://vultax.com/features/event-trackers
JSON: https://vultax.com/features/event-trackers/data.json

Availability: Event monitors are available. Some sources may need a refresh; check the status shown in each room.

## Fed contract prices: Polymarket and Kalshi

The matching contract rows already assembled by Vultax’s prediction pack.

Status: fresh. Within this table’s source-time freshness window; prices can change between observations.
Source observed at: 2026-09-21T12:50:04.000Z
Coverage: Only the Fed meeting/contract combinations shown. Prices are percentages of a $1 payout; they are not forecasts of guaranteed outcomes.

| Meeting | Decision date | Contract | Polymarket (%) | Kalshi (%) | PM − Kalshi (percentage points) |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| September | 2026-09-16 | 25 bp increase | 100 | 50 | 50 |
| September | 2026-09-16 | No change | 0 | 50 | -50 |
| September | 2026-09-16 | 25 bp decrease | 0 | 50 | -50 |
| October | 2026-10-28 | 25 bp increase | 49.5 | 48 | 1.5 |
| October | 2026-10-28 | No change | 48.5 | 49.5 | -1 |
| October | 2026-10-28 | 25 bp decrease | 0.55 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| December | 2026-12-09 | 25 bp increase | 67.5 | 66.5 | 1 |
| December | 2026-12-09 | No change | 29.5 | 30.5 | -1 |
| December | 2026-12-09 | 25 bp decrease | 1.85 | 1.5 | 0.4 |

- Polymarket Gamma prices and Kalshi bid/ask midpoint or last-price fallback come from the source pack. They are collected sequentially.
- Contract wording, settlement terms, fees and available depth must be checked at each venue. A displayed gap is not an executable arbitrage return.
- The pack’s asOf records the parent Fed-pack refresh, not an exchange tick timestamp. Failed parent components can retain older observations.
- Source: [Vultax prediction pack · Polymarket Gamma and Kalshi](https://vultax.com/live/prediction.json)
- [JSON](https://vultax.com/features/prediction-desk/data.json?dataset=fed-contract-comparison) · [CSV](https://vultax.com/features/prediction-desk/data.csv?dataset=fed-contract-comparison)

## Federal Reserve source releases

Headline links from the existing source feed. Original articles remain with their publishers.

Status: fresh. Feed snapshot retrieved by the source; individual items keep their publication dates.
Source observed at: 2026-09-21T12:50:04.000Z
Coverage: The configured feed’s latest returned items. Pack refresh time and each item’s publication time are distinct; the pack can retain earlier items on upstream failure.

| Source headline | Publisher | Published (UTC) |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Federal Reserve Board announces termination of enforcement action with SNB Bancshares and Bank of Eufaula | Federal Reserve | 2026-09-18T15:00:00.000Z |
| Federal Reserve Board issues enforcement actions with former employee of Northstar Bank, former employee of American Express Travel Related Services Company, In | Federal Reserve | 2026-09-18T15:00:00.000Z |
| Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement | Federal Reserve | 2026-09-16T18:00:00.000Z |
| Federal Reserve Board and Federal Open Market Committee release economic projections from the September 15-16 FOMC meeting | Federal Reserve | 2026-09-16T18:00:00.000Z |
| Agencies seek comment on proposed third-party risk management guidance and issue statement on community bank engagement with core service providers | Federal Reserve | 2026-09-11T14:00:00.000Z |
| Agencies reduce regulatory burden for community banks, increase eligibility for 18-month exam cycle | Federal Reserve | 2026-09-10T20:00:00.000Z |

- Headlines are source statements, not independently verified Vultax findings. Follow the original source for context.
- Unparseable source dates remain unavailable; no dates are invented from the time of the page request.
- Source: [Vultax Fed pack · Federal Reserve RSS](https://vultax.com/live/fed.json)
- [JSON](https://vultax.com/features/event-trackers/data.json?dataset=fed-source-feed) · [CSV](https://vultax.com/features/event-trackers/data.csv?dataset=fed-source-feed)

- [Federal Reserve Board announces termination of enforcement action with SNB Bancshares and Bank of Eufaula](https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/enforcement20260918b.htm)
- [Federal Reserve Board issues enforcement actions with former employee of Northstar Bank, former employee of American Express Travel Related Services Company, In](https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/enforcement20260918a.htm)
- [Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement](https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260916a.htm)
- [Federal Reserve Board and Federal Open Market Committee release economic projections from the September 15-16 FOMC meeting](https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260916b.htm)
- [Agencies seek comment on proposed third-party risk management guidance and issue statement on community bank engagement with core service providers](https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/bcreg20260911a.htm)
- [Agencies reduce regulatory burden for community banks, increase eligibility for 18-month exam cycle](https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/bcreg20260910a.htm)

## Related research

- [Fed Decision Odds, Scored: Polymarket vs Kalshi at Every 2026 FOMC Meeting](https://vultax.com/research/fed-september-decision-coin-flip-polymarket-kalshi) — published 2026-09-06

Continue: [Open the Vultax workspace](https://app.vultax.com/predictions/topic)

- Public tables mirror existing Vultax source packs. They do not include account data, private watchlists or the complete app dataset.
- Source time, coverage and limitations apply to each table. Missing values are unavailable, not zero.