{
  "schemaVersion": "vultax-feature-mirror-v1",
  "slug": "prediction-desk",
  "title": "Polymarket vs Kalshi: Prediction Market Prices",
  "description": "Read matched Fed-contract prices from the prediction comparison Vultax already refreshes, with event dates and source coverage.",
  "mirrorSummary": "Read matched Fed-contract prices from the prediction comparison Vultax already refreshes, with event dates and source coverage.",
  "canonicalUrl": "https://vultax.com/features/prediction-desk",
  "availability": {
    "status": "live",
    "message": "Browse prediction markets now. Sign in to use account features."
  },
  "workspace": {
    "label": "Open the Vultax workspace",
    "url": "https://app.vultax.com/predictions"
  },
  "downloads": {
    "json": "https://vultax.com/features/prediction-desk/data.json",
    "markdown": "https://vultax.com/features/prediction-desk/page.md",
    "schema": "https://vultax.com/features/schema.json"
  },
  "tables": [
    {
      "id": "fed-contract-comparison",
      "title": "Fed contract prices: Polymarket and Kalshi",
      "description": "The matching contract rows already assembled by Vultax’s prediction pack.",
      "coverage": "Only the Fed meeting/contract combinations shown. Prices are percentages of a $1 payout; they are not forecasts of guaranteed outcomes.",
      "columns": [
        {
          "key": "meeting",
          "label": "Meeting",
          "format": "text",
          "unit": null
        },
        {
          "key": "date",
          "label": "Decision date",
          "format": "text",
          "unit": null
        },
        {
          "key": "contract",
          "label": "Contract",
          "format": "text",
          "unit": null
        },
        {
          "key": "pm",
          "label": "Polymarket",
          "format": "percent",
          "unit": "%"
        },
        {
          "key": "kalshi",
          "label": "Kalshi",
          "format": "percent",
          "unit": "%"
        },
        {
          "key": "gap",
          "label": "PM − Kalshi",
          "format": "number",
          "unit": "percentage points"
        }
      ],
      "rows": [
        {
          "id": "contract-0",
          "values": {
            "meeting": "September",
            "date": "2026-09-16",
            "contract": "25 bp increase",
            "pm": 100,
            "kalshi": 50,
            "gap": 50
          }
        },
        {
          "id": "contract-1",
          "values": {
            "meeting": "September",
            "date": "2026-09-16",
            "contract": "No change",
            "pm": 0,
            "kalshi": 50,
            "gap": -50
          }
        },
        {
          "id": "contract-2",
          "values": {
            "meeting": "September",
            "date": "2026-09-16",
            "contract": "25 bp decrease",
            "pm": 0,
            "kalshi": 50,
            "gap": -50
          }
        },
        {
          "id": "contract-3",
          "values": {
            "meeting": "October",
            "date": "2026-10-28",
            "contract": "25 bp increase",
            "pm": 54.5,
            "kalshi": 55.5,
            "gap": -1
          }
        },
        {
          "id": "contract-4",
          "values": {
            "meeting": "October",
            "date": "2026-10-28",
            "contract": "No change",
            "pm": 43.5,
            "kalshi": 44.5,
            "gap": -1
          }
        },
        {
          "id": "contract-5",
          "values": {
            "meeting": "October",
            "date": "2026-10-28",
            "contract": "25 bp decrease",
            "pm": 0.65,
            "kalshi": 0.5,
            "gap": 0.2
          }
        },
        {
          "id": "contract-6",
          "values": {
            "meeting": "December",
            "date": "2026-12-09",
            "contract": "25 bp increase",
            "pm": 67.5,
            "kalshi": 66.5,
            "gap": 1
          }
        },
        {
          "id": "contract-7",
          "values": {
            "meeting": "December",
            "date": "2026-12-09",
            "contract": "No change",
            "pm": 30.5,
            "kalshi": 30.5,
            "gap": 0
          }
        },
        {
          "id": "contract-8",
          "values": {
            "meeting": "December",
            "date": "2026-12-09",
            "contract": "25 bp decrease",
            "pm": 2.2,
            "kalshi": 1.5,
            "gap": 0.7
          }
        }
      ],
      "notes": [
        "Polymarket Gamma prices and Kalshi bid/ask midpoint or last-price fallback come from the source pack. They are collected sequentially.",
        "Contract wording, settlement terms, fees and available depth must be checked at each venue. A displayed gap is not an executable arbitrage return.",
        "The pack’s asOf records the parent Fed-pack refresh, not an exchange tick timestamp. Failed parent components can retain older observations."
      ],
      "kind": "market-snapshot",
      "status": "fresh",
      "statusReason": "Within this table’s source-time freshness window; prices can change between observations.",
      "observedAt": "2026-09-18T19:20:02.000Z",
      "modifiedAt": null,
      "rowCount": 9,
      "sources": [
        {
          "label": "Vultax prediction pack · Polymarket Gamma and Kalshi",
          "url": "https://vultax.com/live/prediction.json"
        }
      ],
      "downloads": {
        "json": "https://vultax.com/features/prediction-desk/data.json?dataset=fed-contract-comparison",
        "csv": "https://vultax.com/features/prediction-desk/data.csv?dataset=fed-contract-comparison"
      }
    }
  ],
  "research": [
    {
      "title": "We Tested Polymarket Prices Against 6,776 Resolved Markets. Here's Where They Bend.",
      "url": "https://vultax.com/research/prediction-market-fair-value-calibration",
      "publishedAt": "2026-09-08",
      "description": "Original Vultax research: in an experimental test, a calibrated fair-value model beat raw Polymarket prices by ~9.6% on held-out Brier score. Where the favorite-longshot effect lives, what the model can honestly flag, and why it still isn't a trading edge."
    },
    {
      "title": "Fed Decision Odds, Scored: Polymarket vs Kalshi at Every 2026 FOMC Meeting",
      "url": "https://vultax.com/research/fed-september-decision-coin-flip-polymarket-kalshi",
      "publishedAt": "2026-09-06",
      "description": "How Polymarket and Kalshi priced each 2026 FOMC decision, scored against the outcome. Both venues had the 16 September hike at 87.5% an hour out; the multi-outcome Brier was 0.029 on Polymarket and 0.031 on Kalshi. Next decision 27–28 October."
    }
  ],
  "related": [
    {
      "slug": "market-analytics",
      "title": "Crypto Market Analytics by Exchange",
      "url": "https://vultax.com/features/market-analytics"
    },
    {
      "slug": "wallet-intelligence",
      "title": "Polymarket Trader Rankings and Wallet Research",
      "url": "https://vultax.com/features/wallet-intelligence"
    },
    {
      "slug": "event-trackers",
      "title": "Fed Decision Tracker: Market Prices and Sources",
      "url": "https://vultax.com/features/event-trackers"
    }
  ],
  "limitations": [
    "Public tables mirror existing Vultax source packs. They do not include account data, private watchlists or the complete app dataset.",
    "Source time, coverage and limitations apply to each table. Missing values are unavailable, not zero."
  ]
}