# Polymarket vs Kalshi: Prediction Market Prices

Read matched Fed-contract prices from the prediction comparison Vultax already refreshes, with event dates and source coverage.

Canonical: https://vultax.com/features/prediction-desk
JSON: https://vultax.com/features/prediction-desk/data.json

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## Fed contract prices: Polymarket and Kalshi

The matching contract rows already assembled by Vultax’s prediction pack.

Status: fresh. Within this table’s source-time freshness window; prices can change between observations.
Source observed at: 2026-09-21T12:50:04.000Z
Coverage: Only the Fed meeting/contract combinations shown. Prices are percentages of a $1 payout; they are not forecasts of guaranteed outcomes.

| Meeting | Decision date | Contract | Polymarket (%) | Kalshi (%) | PM − Kalshi (percentage points) |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| September | 2026-09-16 | 25 bp increase | 100 | 50 | 50 |
| September | 2026-09-16 | No change | 0 | 50 | -50 |
| September | 2026-09-16 | 25 bp decrease | 0 | 50 | -50 |
| October | 2026-10-28 | 25 bp increase | 49.5 | 48 | 1.5 |
| October | 2026-10-28 | No change | 48.5 | 49.5 | -1 |
| October | 2026-10-28 | 25 bp decrease | 0.55 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| December | 2026-12-09 | 25 bp increase | 67.5 | 66.5 | 1 |
| December | 2026-12-09 | No change | 29.5 | 30.5 | -1 |
| December | 2026-12-09 | 25 bp decrease | 1.85 | 1.5 | 0.4 |

- Polymarket Gamma prices and Kalshi bid/ask midpoint or last-price fallback come from the source pack. They are collected sequentially.
- Contract wording, settlement terms, fees and available depth must be checked at each venue. A displayed gap is not an executable arbitrage return.
- The pack’s asOf records the parent Fed-pack refresh, not an exchange tick timestamp. Failed parent components can retain older observations.
- Source: [Vultax prediction pack · Polymarket Gamma and Kalshi](https://vultax.com/live/prediction.json)
- [JSON](https://vultax.com/features/prediction-desk/data.json?dataset=fed-contract-comparison) · [CSV](https://vultax.com/features/prediction-desk/data.csv?dataset=fed-contract-comparison)

## Related research

- [We Tested Polymarket Prices Against 6,776 Resolved Markets. Here's Where They Bend.](https://vultax.com/research/prediction-market-fair-value-calibration) — published 2026-09-08
- [Fed Decision Odds, Scored: Polymarket vs Kalshi at Every 2026 FOMC Meeting](https://vultax.com/research/fed-september-decision-coin-flip-polymarket-kalshi) — published 2026-09-06

Continue: [Open the Vultax workspace](https://app.vultax.com/predictions)

- Public tables mirror existing Vultax source packs. They do not include account data, private watchlists or the complete app dataset.
- Source time, coverage and limitations apply to each table. Missing values are unavailable, not zero.