{ "schemaVersion": "vultax-press-notes-v1", "publisher": { "name": "Vultax Research", "url": "https://vultax.com/editorial-policy" }, "partners": "https://vultax.com/partners", "chartCaption": "Chart: Vultax Research", "imageCredit": "Vultax Research", "count": 17, "notes": [ { "slug": "kalshi-polymarket-arbitrage-gaps-after-fees", "title": "Kalshi–Polymarket Arbitrage: 32,638 Price Checks, and Where a Gap Survived Fees", "description": "Vultax matched NFL, college football, Premier League, midterm and Fed contracts on Kalshi and Polymarket and walked both order books every five minutes for 28 hours. Midterm gaps cleared both venues' fees in 10% of readings and a Fed longshot in every one; pre-game sports gaps almost never did.", "publishedAt": "2026-09-16", "updatedAt": "2026-09-16", "headline": { "label": "Midterm readings that cleared both venues' fees at depth", "value": "10.1%", "note": "13,440 readings of 40 matched contracts; the best single reading paid $347.69 on capital held until the result" }, "facts": [ { "label": "The steadiest edge: a tick-size gap on the Fed", "value": "0.18%", "note": "A 50+ bps September hike bid at 1 cent on Kalshi and offered below a cent on Polymarket: a median $714.70 on $325,669, in all 337 readings" }, { "label": "Pre-game NFL quotes that crossed between venues", "value": "0 of 7,518", "note": "28 matched game outcomes read every five minutes, 12–13 September 2026" }, { "label": "In-play readings that crossed, then discarded", "value": "16.9%", "note": "Of 6,296 readings during games; the two venues' books were read up to two minutes apart, so these are timing artefacts" } ], "note": "Vultax matched NFL, college football, Premier League, midterm and Fed contracts on Kalshi and Polymarket and walked both order books every five minutes for 28 hours. Midterm gaps cleared both venues' fees in 10% of readings and a Fed longshot in every one; pre-game sports gaps almost never did. A price gap between Kalshi and Polymarket is easy to find and hard to be paid for. The slower markets were where gaps paid. Midterm contracts cleared fees at depth in 10.1% of readings, and two pairs did so in every reading, the best paying $347.69 on money that stays locked until the election is called. The steadiest edge of all was a quirk of tick sizes on a Fed longshot, worth 0.18% of the capital it needed.", "measurement": "Observed 2026-09-12T18:51Z to 2026-09-13T22:51Z, population: 26,342 readings of matched contract pairs with both order books, excluding in-play sports.", "images": { "illustration": { "url": "https://vultax.com/research/kalshi-polymarket-arbitrage-gaps-after-fees-card.webp", "path": "/research/kalshi-polymarket-arbitrage-gaps-after-fees-card.webp", "alt": "Two short stacks of thin gold lines facing each other across a narrow gap, with one tiny glowing point inside the gap on black", "credit": "Vultax Research" }, "shareCard": { "url": "https://vultax.com/og/article/research/kalshi-polymarket-arbitrage-gaps-after-fees", "credit": "Vultax Research" } }, "links": { "study": "https://vultax.com/research/kalshi-polymarket-arbitrage-gaps-after-fees", "press": "https://vultax.com/research/kalshi-polymarket-arbitrage-gaps-after-fees/press", "text": "https://vultax.com/research/kalshi-polymarket-arbitrage-gaps-after-fees/press.txt", "markdown": "https://vultax.com/research/kalshi-polymarket-arbitrage-gaps-after-fees.md", "datasetJson": "https://vultax.com/research/kalshi-polymarket-arbitrage-gaps-after-fees/data.json", "datasetCsv": "https://vultax.com/research/kalshi-polymarket-arbitrage-gaps-after-fees/data.csv?dataset=results-table", "terminal": { "url": "https://app.vultax.com/predictions", "label": "Open the Vultax prediction terminal", "description": "Polymarket markets ranked by Vi IQ, volume or liquidity, with the order book, recent trades and top holders behind each price." }, "embed": null }, "citation": "Vultax Research, Kalshi–Polymarket Arbitrage: 32,638 Price Checks, and Where a Gap Survived Fees, 2026-09-16, https://vultax.com/research/kalshi-polymarket-arbitrage-gaps-after-fees", "subject": "Vultax Research: Kalshi–Polymarket Arbitrage: 32,638 Price Checks, and Where a Gap Survived Fees", "text": "Midterm readings that cleared both venues' fees at depth: 10.1%\n\nVultax matched NFL, college football, Premier League, midterm and Fed contracts on Kalshi and Polymarket and walked both order books every five minutes for 28 hours. The slower markets were where gaps paid.\n\n- The steadiest edge: a tick-size gap on the Fed: 0.18%\n- Pre-game NFL quotes that crossed between venues: 0 of 7,518\n- In-play readings that crossed, then discarded: 16.9%\n\nObserved 2026-09-12T18:51Z to 2026-09-13T22:51Z, population: 26,342 readings of matched contract pairs with both order books, excluding in-play sports.\n\nStudy: https://vultax.com/research/kalshi-polymarket-arbitrage-gaps-after-fees\nMarkdown: https://vultax.com/research/kalshi-polymarket-arbitrage-gaps-after-fees.md\nData: https://vultax.com/research/kalshi-polymarket-arbitrage-gaps-after-fees/data.json\nShare card: https://vultax.com/og/article/research/kalshi-polymarket-arbitrage-gaps-after-fees\nLive screen: https://app.vultax.com/predictions\n\nVultax Research, Kalshi–Polymarket Arbitrage: 32,638 Price Checks, and Where a Gap Survived Fees, 2026-09-16, https://vultax.com/research/kalshi-polymarket-arbitrage-gaps-after-fees\n" }, { "slug": "polymarket-vs-kalshi-midterms-odds-2026", "title": "Polymarket vs Kalshi Midterm Odds: 65 Matched Contracts and What a $50,000 Bet Moves", "description": "Vultax matched 65 midterm contracts across Polymarket and Kalshi. The venues usually sit 1 to 3 points apart, Polymarket prices Democrats higher in 15 of the 18 most-traded outcomes, and $50,000 on a Democratic Senate cost 1.0¢ above the price on Kalshi and 2.4¢ on Polymarket.", "publishedAt": "2026-09-16", "updatedAt": "2026-09-16", "headline": { "label": "Midterm contracts matched across the venues", "value": "65", "note": "House control, Senate control and 31 Senate races, prices read 18:52–18:53 UTC on 12 September 2026" }, "facts": [ { "label": "Typical daily gap, 30 days to 12 September", "value": "1.4 pts", "note": "Median across 65 pairs of the average absolute difference between the venues' daily prices" }, { "label": "Days Polymarket priced a Democratic House higher", "value": "319 of 379", "note": "Daily prices since 9 August 2025; the average difference was 1.85 points" }, { "label": "$50,000 on a Democratic Senate, above the price", "value": "1.0¢ / 2.4¢", "note": "Kalshi against Polymarket, median over 58 readings, 12–13 September 2026; both filled in every reading" } ], "note": "Vultax matched 65 midterm contracts across Polymarket and Kalshi. The venues usually sit 1 to 3 points apart, Polymarket prices Democrats higher in 15 of the 18 most-traded outcomes, and $50,000 on a Democratic Senate cost 1.0¢ above the price on Kalshi and 2.4¢ on Polymarket. Polymarket and Kalshi mostly agree on the 2026 midterms. Across 65 contracts that exist on both venues, from control of each chamber to 31 individual Senate races, the median pair's daily prices sat 1.4 points apart over the last 30 days. On the questions that matter most on 12 September, they told the same story: Democrats around 85 to 87 cents to win the House, the Senate a coin flip, Texas and Ohio close, Maine and Michigan leaning Democratic.", "measurement": "Observed 2026-08-13 to 2026-09-12, population: 15 of 65 matched midterm contract pairs.", "images": { "illustration": { "url": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-vs-kalshi-midterms-odds-2026-card.webp", "path": "/research/polymarket-vs-kalshi-midterms-odds-2026-card.webp", "alt": "Two thin lines of small gold dots running side by side at almost the same height across a black field", "credit": "Vultax Research" }, "shareCard": { "url": "https://vultax.com/og/article/research/polymarket-vs-kalshi-midterms-odds-2026", "credit": "Vultax Research" } }, "links": { "study": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-vs-kalshi-midterms-odds-2026", "press": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-vs-kalshi-midterms-odds-2026/press", "text": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-vs-kalshi-midterms-odds-2026/press.txt", "markdown": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-vs-kalshi-midterms-odds-2026.md", "datasetJson": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-vs-kalshi-midterms-odds-2026/data.json", "datasetCsv": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-vs-kalshi-midterms-odds-2026/data.csv?dataset=side-by-side-table", "terminal": { "url": "https://app.vultax.com/predictions/topic/midterms-2026", "label": "Open the 2026 midterms room", "description": "Senate, House and governor races priced live on Polymarket, with control odds, seat math and the day's biggest movers." }, "embed": null }, "citation": "Vultax Research, Polymarket vs Kalshi Midterm Odds: 65 Matched Contracts and What a $50,000 Bet Moves, 2026-09-16, https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-vs-kalshi-midterms-odds-2026", "subject": "Vultax Research: Polymarket vs Kalshi Midterm Odds: 65 Matched Contracts and What a $50,000 Bet Moves", "text": "Midterm contracts matched across the venues: 65\n\nVultax matched 65 midterm contracts across Polymarket and Kalshi. The venues usually sit 1 to 3 points apart, Polymarket prices Democrats higher in 15 of the 18 most-traded outcomes, and $50,000 on a Democratic Senate cost 1.0¢ above the price on Kalshi and 2.4¢ on Polymarket.\n\n- Typical daily gap, 30 days to 12 September: 1.4 pts\n- Days Polymarket priced a Democratic House higher: 319 of 379\n- $50,000 on a Democratic Senate, above the price: 1.0¢ / 2.4¢\n\nObserved 2026-08-13 to 2026-09-12, population: 15 of 65 matched midterm contract pairs.\n\nStudy: https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-vs-kalshi-midterms-odds-2026\nMarkdown: https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-vs-kalshi-midterms-odds-2026.md\nData: https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-vs-kalshi-midterms-odds-2026/data.json\nShare card: https://vultax.com/og/article/research/polymarket-vs-kalshi-midterms-odds-2026\nLive screen: https://app.vultax.com/predictions/topic/midterms-2026\n\nVultax Research, Polymarket vs Kalshi Midterm Odds: 65 Matched Contracts and What a $50,000 Bet Moves, 2026-09-16, https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-vs-kalshi-midterms-odds-2026\n" }, { "slug": "polymarket-bitcoin-up-or-down-5-minute-markets", "title": "Polymarket's Up-or-Down Crypto Markets: 60% of Its Trades, Priced About Right, 1.6% Fee", "description": "Vultax counted 15.0 million Polymarket trades over 251 hours: 59.6% were up-or-down crypto bets, 379 wallets made most of them, and takers paid about 1.6% of notional on five-minute trades. In 2,497 markets checked against outcomes, Up won 50.2% and favourites won as often as priced.", "publishedAt": "2026-09-15", "updatedAt": "2026-09-16", "headline": { "label": "Observed Polymarket trades in up-or-down markets", "value": "59.6%", "note": "8.9 million of 15.0 million trades in 251 observed hours, 21 August to 12 September 2026; 15.7% of the money, at $12.82 a trade" }, "facts": [ { "label": "Up-or-down trades made by 379 wallets", "value": "58.6%", "note": "The busiest 1% of the 37,970 wallets that traded them; the ten busiest made 22.8%" }, { "label": "Half-way favourites that won", "value": "74.6%", "note": "At an average price of 75.0¢, 2,276 Bitcoin and Ether markets ending 30 August to 12 September 2026; a minute before close, 79.0% at 79.0¢" }, { "label": "Taker fee on a five-minute trade", "value": "≈1.6%", "note": "Of notional, at Polymarket's published 0.07 crypto rate and 12 September prices; per share, 1.16¢ at the half-way price. Makers pay nothing" } ], "note": "Vultax counted 15.0 million Polymarket trades over 251 hours: 59.6% were up-or-down crypto bets, 379 wallets made most of them, and takers paid about 1.6% of notional on five-minute trades. In 2,497 markets checked against outcomes, Up won 50.2% and favourites won as often as priced. Counted by trades, most of what happens on Polymarket is not elections, sports or the Fed but a bet on whether Bitcoin, or another crypto asset, will be higher or lower a few minutes from now. Across 251 hours of Polymarket trading that Vultax recorded between 21 August and 12 September 2026, up-or-down markets took 59.6% of 15.0 million trades. At an average of $12.82 a trade, against $101.80 everywhere else, they carried 15.7% of observed notional.", "measurement": "Observed 2026-08-21T12:00Z to 2026-09-12T18:00Z, population: 14,973,743 Polymarket trades in 251 observed hours.", "images": { "illustration": { "url": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-bitcoin-up-or-down-5-minute-markets-card.webp", "path": "/research/polymarket-bitcoin-up-or-down-5-minute-markets-card.webp", "alt": "A row of short gold tick marks alternating above and below a thin horizontal line, like a fast metronome, on black", "credit": "Vultax Research" }, "shareCard": { "url": "https://vultax.com/og/article/research/polymarket-bitcoin-up-or-down-5-minute-markets", "credit": "Vultax Research" } }, "links": { "study": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-bitcoin-up-or-down-5-minute-markets", "press": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-bitcoin-up-or-down-5-minute-markets/press", "text": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-bitcoin-up-or-down-5-minute-markets/press.txt", "markdown": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-bitcoin-up-or-down-5-minute-markets.md", "datasetJson": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-bitcoin-up-or-down-5-minute-markets/data.json", "datasetCsv": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-bitcoin-up-or-down-5-minute-markets/data.csv?dataset=share-by-interval-table", "terminal": { "url": "https://app.vultax.com/analytics/markets", "label": "Open the Polymarket market directory", "description": "Sort every open Polymarket market by 24-hour volume or liquidity, with Vultax analytics for each market." }, "embed": null }, "citation": "Vultax Research, Polymarket's Up-or-Down Crypto Markets: 60% of Its Trades, Priced About Right, 1.6% Fee, 2026-09-16, https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-bitcoin-up-or-down-5-minute-markets", "subject": "Vultax Research: Polymarket's Up-or-Down Crypto Markets: 60% of Its Trades, Priced About Right, 1.6% Fee", "text": "Observed Polymarket trades in up-or-down markets: 59.6%\n\nVultax counted 15.0 million Polymarket trades over 251 hours: 59.6% were up-or-down crypto bets, 379 wallets made most of them, and takers paid about 1.6% of notional on five-minute trades. In 2,497 markets checked against outcomes, Up won 50.2% and favourites won as often as priced.\n\n- Up-or-down trades made by 379 wallets: 58.6%\n- Half-way favourites that won: 74.6%\n- Taker fee on a five-minute trade: ≈1.6%\n\nObserved 2026-08-21T12:00Z to 2026-09-12T18:00Z, population: 14,973,743 Polymarket trades in 251 observed hours.\n\nStudy: https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-bitcoin-up-or-down-5-minute-markets\nMarkdown: https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-bitcoin-up-or-down-5-minute-markets.md\nData: https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-bitcoin-up-or-down-5-minute-markets/data.json\nShare card: https://vultax.com/og/article/research/polymarket-bitcoin-up-or-down-5-minute-markets\nLive screen: https://app.vultax.com/analytics/markets\n\nVultax Research, Polymarket's Up-or-Down Crypto Markets: 60% of Its Trades, Priced About Right, 1.6% Fee, 2026-09-16, https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-bitcoin-up-or-down-5-minute-markets\n" }, { "slug": "why-bitcoin-price-differs-between-exchanges", "title": "Why Bitcoin's Price Differs Between Exchanges: 18 Venues Checked Every Minute", "description": "Vultax read Bitcoin's order books on 18 exchanges every minute for 28 hours. Half stayed within a basis point, the highest and lowest ordinary venues sat a median 5.8 bps apart, and Upbit ran 1.31% above. In a week of readings no gap survived fees; here is what a gap has to clear.", "publishedAt": "2026-09-14", "updatedAt": "2026-09-16", "headline": { "label": "Typical gap between the highest and lowest venue", "value": "5.8 bps", "note": "Median of 1,095 minute readings across 16 exchanges, 12–13 September 2026; about $45 on a bitcoin near $77,000" }, "facts": [ { "label": "Upbit above the other venues", "value": "+1.31%", "note": "Median of 985 readings, range 1.07% to 1.53%, with Upbit's won price converted to dollars at a live exchange rate" }, { "label": "Venues within 1 bp of the pack on 80% of readings", "value": "9 of 18", "note": "Binance, Bitget, Bitrue, BTSE, Bybit, Gate, Kraken, OKX and WhiteBIT" }, { "label": "Readings where the gap paid after fees", "value": "0 of 1,029", "note": "Vultax's live crypto pack, 6–13 September, five major venues, 10 bps taker fee per side; best reading −7.0 bps" } ], "note": "Vultax read Bitcoin's order books on 18 exchanges every minute for 28 hours. Half stayed within a basis point, the highest and lowest ordinary venues sat a median 5.8 bps apart, and Upbit ran 1.31% above. In a week of readings no gap survived fees; here is what a gap has to clear. Bitcoin does not have one price. Every exchange runs its own order book, and the books are held together only by traders who move money between them. A few venues sit apart for reasons you can name. Upbit, a Korean exchange where Bitcoin trades against won, ran a median 1.31% above the others once its price was converted to dollars. HTX sat a median 2.9 basis points high.", "measurement": "Observed 2026-09-12T19:16Z to 2026-09-13T22:57Z, population: 1,095 minute readings with at least ten venue books under 60 seconds old.", "images": { "illustration": { "url": "https://vultax.com/research/why-bitcoin-price-differs-between-exchanges-card.webp", "path": "/research/why-bitcoin-price-differs-between-exchanges-card.webp", "alt": "Five thin gold lines stacked at almost the same height, each ending in a small glowing point, their tiny offsets visible on black", "credit": "Vultax Research" }, "shareCard": { "url": "https://vultax.com/og/article/research/why-bitcoin-price-differs-between-exchanges", "credit": "Vultax Research" } }, "links": { "study": "https://vultax.com/research/why-bitcoin-price-differs-between-exchanges", "press": "https://vultax.com/research/why-bitcoin-price-differs-between-exchanges/press", "text": "https://vultax.com/research/why-bitcoin-price-differs-between-exchanges/press.txt", "markdown": "https://vultax.com/research/why-bitcoin-price-differs-between-exchanges.md", "datasetJson": "https://vultax.com/research/why-bitcoin-price-differs-between-exchanges/data.json", "datasetCsv": "https://vultax.com/research/why-bitcoin-price-differs-between-exchanges/data.csv?dataset=venues-table", "terminal": { "url": "https://app.vultax.com/predictions/crypto/BTCUSDT", "label": "Open the BTC venue desk", "description": "Bitcoin books from each connected exchange side by side, with the cross-exchange arbitrage view, venue depth and large trades." }, "embed": null }, "citation": "Vultax Research, Why Bitcoin's Price Differs Between Exchanges: 18 Venues Checked Every Minute, 2026-09-16, https://vultax.com/research/why-bitcoin-price-differs-between-exchanges", "subject": "Vultax Research: Why Bitcoin's Price Differs Between Exchanges: 18 Venues Checked Every Minute", "text": "Typical gap between the highest and lowest venue: 5.8 bps\n\nVultax read Bitcoin's order books on 18 exchanges every minute for 28 hours. Half stayed within a basis point, the highest and lowest ordinary venues sat a median 5.8 bps apart, and Upbit ran 1.31% above. Bitcoin does not have one price.\n\n- Upbit above the other venues: +1.31%\n- Venues within 1 bp of the pack on 80% of readings: 9 of 18\n- Readings where the gap paid after fees: 0 of 1,029\n\nObserved 2026-09-12T19:16Z to 2026-09-13T22:57Z, population: 1,095 minute readings with at least ten venue books under 60 seconds old.\n\nStudy: https://vultax.com/research/why-bitcoin-price-differs-between-exchanges\nMarkdown: https://vultax.com/research/why-bitcoin-price-differs-between-exchanges.md\nData: https://vultax.com/research/why-bitcoin-price-differs-between-exchanges/data.json\nShare card: https://vultax.com/og/article/research/why-bitcoin-price-differs-between-exchanges\nLive screen: https://app.vultax.com/predictions/crypto/BTCUSDT\n\nVultax Research, Why Bitcoin's Price Differs Between Exchanges: 18 Venues Checked Every Minute, 2026-09-16, https://vultax.com/research/why-bitcoin-price-differs-between-exchanges\n" }, { "slug": "kalshi-polymarket-open-interest-by-category", "title": "Where the Money Waits: Polymarket's Open Interest Is 55% Politics, Kalshi's 44% Sports", "description": "Vultax compared Kalshi and Polymarket on structure, fees, holdings and prices. On 13 September 2026, 55.3% of Polymarket's $341.3 million open interest sat on politics and 43.6% of Kalshi's 1.04 billion open contracts on sports; on a matched Fed pair in July, prices sat a median 5.7 cents apart.", "publishedAt": "2026-09-13", "updatedAt": "2026-09-16", "headline": { "label": "Open interest on politics (Polymarket) and sports (Kalshi)", "value": "55.3% / 43.6%", "note": "$188.9 million of $341.3 million across 20,851 Polymarket events; 453 million of 1.04 billion contracts across 11,715 Kalshi events; 13 September 2026" }, "facts": [ { "label": "Taker fee on 100 contracts at 50 cents", "value": "$1.00 / $1.75", "note": "Polymarket's politics rate (crypto $1.75, sports $1.25) against Kalshi's published schedule; Polymarket charges makers nothing" }, { "label": "Median gap on the exactly matched Fed pair", "value": "574 bps", "note": "About 5.7 cents; Polymarket's 4.50% end-2026 upper bound against Kalshi KXFED-26DEC-T4.25, 1,018 observations over 24 hours from 17 July 2026" }, { "label": "Open interest held by the ten largest events", "value": "44% / 49%", "note": "Polymarket and Kalshi, 13 September 2026; led by the 2028 presidential election on Polymarket and the 2028 Democratic nominee on Kalshi" } ], "note": "Vultax compared Kalshi and Polymarket on structure, fees, holdings and prices. On 13 September 2026, 55.3% of Polymarket's $341.3 million open interest sat on politics and 43.6% of Kalshi's 1.04 billion open contracts on sports; on a matched Fed pair in July, prices sat a median 5.7 cents apart. Kalshi and Polymarket list many of the same questions and are different venues underneath. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange that trades in dollars. Polymarket's main venue is an on-chain order book settled in USDC on Polygon and closed to U.S. residents, with a separate, sports-first U.S. exchange that opened to the public in May 2026. Both charge takers a rate times p × (1 − p): at 50 cents, 100 contracts cost $1.75 to take on Kalshi and between nothing and $1.75 on Polymarket, depending on the category, and Polymarket makers pay no fee.", "measurement": "Observed 2026-09-13T23:22Z, population: 20,851 open Polymarket events.", "images": { "illustration": { "url": "https://vultax.com/research/kalshi-vs-polymarket-odds-gap-measured-card.webp", "path": "/research/kalshi-vs-polymarket-odds-gap-measured-card.webp", "alt": "Two thin parallel gold lines with a small constant gap and tiny tick marks, on black", "credit": "Vultax Research" }, "shareCard": { "url": "https://vultax.com/og/article/research/kalshi-polymarket-open-interest-by-category", "credit": "Vultax Research" } }, "links": { "study": "https://vultax.com/research/kalshi-polymarket-open-interest-by-category", "press": "https://vultax.com/research/kalshi-polymarket-open-interest-by-category/press", "text": "https://vultax.com/research/kalshi-polymarket-open-interest-by-category/press.txt", "markdown": "https://vultax.com/research/kalshi-polymarket-open-interest-by-category.md", "datasetJson": "https://vultax.com/research/kalshi-polymarket-open-interest-by-category/data.json", "datasetCsv": "https://vultax.com/research/kalshi-polymarket-open-interest-by-category/data.csv?dataset=venues-table", "terminal": { "url": "https://app.vultax.com/analytics/markets", "label": "Open the Polymarket market directory", "description": "Every open Polymarket market with its Yes price, 24-hour volume, resting liquidity and close date, sortable by volume or liquidity." }, "embed": null }, "citation": "Vultax Research, Where the Money Waits: Polymarket's Open Interest Is 55% Politics, Kalshi's 44% Sports, 2026-09-16, https://vultax.com/research/kalshi-polymarket-open-interest-by-category", "subject": "Vultax Research: Where the Money Waits: Polymarket's Open Interest Is 55% Politics, Kalshi's 44% Sports", "text": "Open interest on politics (Polymarket) and sports (Kalshi): 55.3% / 43.6%\n\nVultax compared Kalshi and Polymarket on structure, fees, holdings and prices. Kalshi and Polymarket list many of the same questions and are different venues underneath. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange that trades in dollars.\n\n- Taker fee on 100 contracts at 50 cents: $1.00 / $1.75\n- Median gap on the exactly matched Fed pair: 574 bps\n- Open interest held by the ten largest events: 44% / 49%\n\nObserved 2026-09-13T23:22Z, population: 20,851 open Polymarket events.\n\nStudy: https://vultax.com/research/kalshi-polymarket-open-interest-by-category\nMarkdown: https://vultax.com/research/kalshi-polymarket-open-interest-by-category.md\nData: https://vultax.com/research/kalshi-polymarket-open-interest-by-category/data.json\nShare card: https://vultax.com/og/article/research/kalshi-polymarket-open-interest-by-category\nLive screen: https://app.vultax.com/analytics/markets\n\nVultax Research, Where the Money Waits: Polymarket's Open Interest Is 55% Politics, Kalshi's 44% Sports, 2026-09-16, https://vultax.com/research/kalshi-polymarket-open-interest-by-category\n" }, { "slug": "polymarket-copy-trading-costs-and-tools", "title": "Polymarket Copy Trading: Following 30 Seconds Late Cost 1.43¢ a Share, Before Fees", "description": "What copying a Polymarket trader costs, measured and worked. Behind buys by the 1,000 most profitable wallets, a follower 30 seconds late paid 1.43¢ a share more in event markets; fees and fill put a copier of a $50 crypto trade down about 6% before the market moves. Four tools compared.", "publishedAt": "2026-09-12", "updatedAt": "2026-09-16", "headline": { "label": "Extra paid 30 seconds after a top trader's buy", "value": "+1.43¢", "note": "Average over 17,088 event-market buys by the top 1,000 wallets, 12–13 September 2026; the follower paid more on 57.9% of them" }, "facts": [ { "label": "Copier's cost on a $50 crypto trade", "value": "6%", "note": "100 contracts at 50 cents: $1.75 Polymarket taker fee (published formula) + $0.25 platform fee at 0.5% + $1.00 if the leader moved the price one cent" }, { "label": "Extra paid behind the top 100 wallets", "value": "+1.97¢", "note": "30 seconds late, against +1.20¢ behind wallets ranked 101 to 1,000" }, { "label": "Active winners profitable again next month", "value": "124 of 137", "note": "June winners among wallets with ten or more trades in both June and July 2026. Across all wallets active in consecutive months from March 2025 to March 2026 (431 million fills, 13 month pairs), winners repeated 41–51% of the time. The decisions persist among the active few; the returns are what the copier cannot have." } ], "note": "What copying a Polymarket trader costs, measured and worked. Behind buys by the 1,000 most profitable wallets, a follower 30 seconds late paid 1.43¢ a share more in event markets; fees and fill put a copier of a $50 crypto trade down about 6% before the market moves. Copy trading on Polymarket copies a trader's decisions, not their returns, and the price moves before the copy arrives. Vultax followed 54,828 buys by the 1,000 most profitable wallets in its Polymarket cohort on 12 and 13 September 2026. Across 17,088 of them in event markets, a follower 30 seconds late paid 1.43 cents a share more on average, and paid more than the leader 57.9% of the time. Ten minutes late, the extra was 1.29 cents: most of the cost was already in the price within the first half-minute.", "measurement": "Observed 2026-09-12T15:06Z to 2026-09-13T22:55Z, population: 54,828 buys by 195 of the top 1,000 cohort wallets.", "images": { "illustration": { "url": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-copy-trading-costs-and-tools-card.webp", "path": "/research/polymarket-copy-trading-costs-and-tools-card.webp", "alt": "A bright gold point moving along a thin line, followed by a fainter lagging copy, on black", "credit": "Vultax Research" }, "shareCard": { "url": "https://vultax.com/og/article/research/polymarket-copy-trading-costs-and-tools", "credit": "Vultax Research" } }, "links": { "study": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-copy-trading-costs-and-tools", "press": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-copy-trading-costs-and-tools/press", "text": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-copy-trading-costs-and-tools/press.txt", "markdown": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-copy-trading-costs-and-tools.md", "datasetJson": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-copy-trading-costs-and-tools/data.json", "datasetCsv": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-copy-trading-costs-and-tools/data.csv?dataset=section-the-tools-table", "terminal": { "url": "https://app.vultax.com/analytics/radar", "label": "Open Trader Radar", "description": "See what each Polymarket wallet is good at, drawn as a radar and ranked against the other wallets on the same board, with the raw figures on the card." }, "embed": null }, "citation": "Vultax Research, Polymarket Copy Trading: Following 30 Seconds Late Cost 1.43¢ a Share, Before Fees, 2026-09-16, https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-copy-trading-costs-and-tools", "subject": "Vultax Research: Polymarket Copy Trading: Following 30 Seconds Late Cost 1.43¢ a Share, Before Fees", "text": "Extra paid 30 seconds after a top trader's buy: +1.43¢\n\nWhat copying a Polymarket trader costs, measured and worked. Behind buys by the 1,000 most profitable wallets, a follower 30 seconds late paid 1.43¢ a share more in event markets; fees and fill put a copier of a $50 crypto trade down about 6% before the market moves.\n\n- Copier's cost on a $50 crypto trade: 6%\n- Extra paid behind the top 100 wallets: +1.97¢\n- Active winners profitable again next month: 124 of 137\n\nObserved 2026-09-12T15:06Z to 2026-09-13T22:55Z, population: 54,828 buys by 195 of the top 1,000 cohort wallets.\n\nStudy: https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-copy-trading-costs-and-tools\nMarkdown: https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-copy-trading-costs-and-tools.md\nData: https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-copy-trading-costs-and-tools/data.json\nShare card: https://vultax.com/og/article/research/polymarket-copy-trading-costs-and-tools\nLive screen: https://app.vultax.com/analytics/radar\n\nVultax Research, Polymarket Copy Trading: Following 30 Seconds Late Cost 1.43¢ a Share, Before Fees, 2026-09-16, https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-copy-trading-costs-and-tools\n" }, { "slug": "best-polymarket-traders-leaderboards", "title": "Best Polymarket Traders: 36 Wallets Took 44% of Gains, and Active Winners Kept Winning", "description": "Who makes money on Polymarket, whether winners keep winning, and how five leaderboards count. The top 1% of winning wallets took 43.9% of realised gains; 124 of 137 active June winners were profitable again in July, against a 41–51% repeat rate across all wallets month to month.", "publishedAt": "2026-09-11", "updatedAt": "2026-09-16", "headline": { "label": "Realised gains taken by the top 1% of winners", "value": "43.9%", "note": "36 wallets out of 9,902, 18 June to 14 July 2026; the top 10% of winners (351 wallets) took 79.5%" }, "facts": [ { "label": "Active June winners profitable again in July", "value": "124 of 137", "note": "90.5% of the June winners among 184 wallets with ten or more trades in both months; 67.4% of the 184 were profitable in both. Across all wallets active in consecutive months from March 2025 to March 2026 (431 million fills, 13 month pairs), winners repeated 41–51% of the time" }, { "label": "One-trade wallets in profit", "value": "12.2%", "note": "July 2026, n=2,199; against 63.7% for wallets with 6 to 20 trades" }, { "label": "Leaderboards that state fee treatment", "value": "0 of 5", "note": "Polymarket's board, Polycopy, Hashdive, Laika Labs, Polymarket Analytics: all show a P&L, none says gross or net" } ], "note": "Who makes money on Polymarket, whether winners keep winning, and how five leaderboards count. The top 1% of winning wallets took 43.9% of realised gains; 124 of 137 active June winners were profitable again in July, against a 41–51% repeat rate across all wallets month to month. A small number of Polymarket wallets take most of the money, and the ones that trade often keep taking it. In Vultax's record of 9,902 wallets from 18 June to 14 July 2026, the top 1% of winning wallets, 36 addresses, took 43.9% of all realised gains, while 54.3% of wallets closed nothing at all. Among the 184 wallets with ten or more trades in both June and July 2026, 124 of the 137 June winners were profitable again in July (90.5%).", "measurement": "Observed 2026-07, population: 7,178 wallets.", "images": { "illustration": { "url": "https://vultax.com/research/best-polymarket-traders-leaderboards-card.webp", "path": "/research/best-polymarket-traders-leaderboards-card.webp", "alt": "A stack of thin gold bars ranked longest to shortest, the top three glowing, on black", "credit": "Vultax Research" }, "shareCard": { "url": "https://vultax.com/og/article/research/best-polymarket-traders-leaderboards", "credit": "Vultax Research" } }, "links": { "study": "https://vultax.com/research/best-polymarket-traders-leaderboards", "press": "https://vultax.com/research/best-polymarket-traders-leaderboards/press", "text": "https://vultax.com/research/best-polymarket-traders-leaderboards/press.txt", "markdown": "https://vultax.com/research/best-polymarket-traders-leaderboards.md", "datasetJson": "https://vultax.com/research/best-polymarket-traders-leaderboards/data.json", "datasetCsv": "https://vultax.com/research/best-polymarket-traders-leaderboards/data.csv?dataset=section-activity-is-the-first-filter-chart", "terminal": { "url": "https://app.vultax.com/analytics/traders", "label": "Open Polymarket trader analytics", "description": "Observed performance for Polymarket wallets, live movers and a search across all traders, each view with its sample and time context." }, "embed": null }, "citation": "Vultax Research, Best Polymarket Traders: 36 Wallets Took 44% of Gains, and Active Winners Kept Winning, 2026-09-16, https://vultax.com/research/best-polymarket-traders-leaderboards", "subject": "Vultax Research: Best Polymarket Traders: 36 Wallets Took 44% of Gains, and Active Winners Kept Winning", "text": "Realised gains taken by the top 1% of winners: 43.9%\n\nWho makes money on Polymarket, whether winners keep winning, and how five leaderboards count. The top 1% of winning wallets took 43.9% of realised gains; 124 of 137 active June winners were profitable again in July, against a 41–51% repeat rate across all wallets month to month. A small number of Polymarket wallets take most of the money, and the ones that trade often keep taking it.\n\n- Active June winners profitable again in July: 124 of 137\n- One-trade wallets in profit: 12.2%\n- Leaderboards that state fee treatment: 0 of 5\n\nObserved 2026-07, population: 7,178 wallets.\n\nStudy: https://vultax.com/research/best-polymarket-traders-leaderboards\nMarkdown: https://vultax.com/research/best-polymarket-traders-leaderboards.md\nData: https://vultax.com/research/best-polymarket-traders-leaderboards/data.json\nShare card: https://vultax.com/og/article/research/best-polymarket-traders-leaderboards\nLive screen: https://app.vultax.com/analytics/traders\n\nVultax Research, Best Polymarket Traders: 36 Wallets Took 44% of Gains, and Active Winners Kept Winning, 2026-09-16, https://vultax.com/research/best-polymarket-traders-leaderboards\n" }, { "slug": "best-polymarket-tools-2026", "title": "Best Polymarket Tools and Whale Trackers in 2026: 22 Compared, 4 Publish Their Latency", "description": "22 Polymarket tools scored on stated latency, P&L method, history depth, liquidity context and price, with eight whale trackers compared cell by cell, from vendor pages on 5 September 2026. Four tools state how fast their alerts are, and every category has a working free tier.", "publishedAt": "2026-09-07", "updatedAt": "2026-09-16", "headline": { "label": "Tools that publish an alert latency", "value": "4 of 22", "note": "PolyWhaler (30 s median), SightWhale (~30 s), LuckyLobster (sub-50 ms, press release), Vultax (stated on its own screen). The other 18 say \"real-time\" or nothing" }, "facts": [ { "label": "Free tiers with a live feed", "value": "3", "note": "PolyWhaler, Alphascope's wallet tracker and Polymarket Analytics, besides the venue's own activity feed. SightWhale's free page is delayed by about an hour" }, { "label": "Monthly price range", "value": "$0 – $49.92", "note": "Every category has a working free tier. The top paid tier is PolyWhaler Quant (API, webhooks, exports)" }, { "label": "Alert threshold in common use", "value": "$10,000", "note": "PolyWhaler's stated floor. No tool publishes how often a $10,000 print lands in a book too thin to absorb it" } ], "note": "22 Polymarket tools scored on stated latency, P&L method, history depth, liquidity context and price, with eight whale trackers compared cell by cell, from vendor pages on 5 September 2026. Four tools state how fast their alerts are, and every category has a working free tier. If you trade Polymarket actively you need three things, and most tools sell one: a large-trade feed whose delay is stated, a leaderboard whose P&L method is stated, and liquidity context on every print so a $50,000 trade in a $3,000 book does not read as conviction. Scored on those tests, the field splits cleanly. Directories tell you what exists, alert tools tell you what just happened, leaderboard tools tell you who is winning, and almost none of them tell you how fresh or how computed.", "measurement": "The observation window and population are stated in the study's method section.", "images": { "illustration": { "url": "https://vultax.com/research/best-polymarket-tools-2026-card.webp", "path": "/research/best-polymarket-tools-2026-card.webp", "alt": "A grid of small outlined rectangles on black, four lit from within in gold", "credit": "Vultax Research" }, "shareCard": { "url": "https://vultax.com/og/article/research/best-polymarket-tools-2026", "credit": "Vultax Research" } }, "links": { "study": "https://vultax.com/research/best-polymarket-tools-2026", "press": "https://vultax.com/research/best-polymarket-tools-2026/press", "text": "https://vultax.com/research/best-polymarket-tools-2026/press.txt", "markdown": "https://vultax.com/research/best-polymarket-tools-2026.md", "datasetJson": "https://vultax.com/research/best-polymarket-tools-2026/data.json", "datasetCsv": "https://vultax.com/research/best-polymarket-tools-2026/data.csv?dataset=section-how-the-tools-were-scored-table", "terminal": { "url": "https://app.vultax.com/analytics/radar", "label": "Open Trader Radar", "description": "Each Polymarket wallet drawn as a radar of what it is good at, ranked against the other wallets on the same board, with the raw figures on the card." }, "embed": null }, "citation": "Vultax Research, Best Polymarket Tools and Whale Trackers in 2026: 22 Compared, 4 Publish Their Latency, 2026-09-16, https://vultax.com/research/best-polymarket-tools-2026", "subject": "Vultax Research: Best Polymarket Tools and Whale Trackers in 2026: 22 Compared, 4 Publish Their Latency", "text": "Tools that publish an alert latency: 4 of 22\n\n22 Polymarket tools scored on stated latency, P&L method, history depth, liquidity context and price, with eight whale trackers compared cell by cell, from vendor pages on 5 September 2026. Four tools state how fast their alerts are, and every category has a working free tier. Scored on those tests, the field splits cleanly.\n\n- Free tiers with a live feed: 3\n- Monthly price range: $0 – $49.92\n- Alert threshold in common use: $10,000\n\nThe observation window and population are stated in the study's method section.\n\nStudy: https://vultax.com/research/best-polymarket-tools-2026\nMarkdown: https://vultax.com/research/best-polymarket-tools-2026.md\nData: https://vultax.com/research/best-polymarket-tools-2026/data.json\nShare card: https://vultax.com/og/article/research/best-polymarket-tools-2026\nLive screen: https://app.vultax.com/analytics/radar\n\nVultax Research, Best Polymarket Tools and Whale Trackers in 2026: 22 Compared, 4 Publish Their Latency, 2026-09-16, https://vultax.com/research/best-polymarket-tools-2026\n" }, { "slug": "fed-september-decision-coin-flip-polymarket-kalshi", "title": "Fed Decision Odds, Scored: Polymarket vs Kalshi at Every 2026 FOMC Meeting", "description": "How Polymarket and Kalshi priced each 2026 FOMC decision, scored against the outcome. Both venues had the 16 September hike at 87.5% an hour out; the multi-outcome Brier was 0.029 on Polymarket and 0.031 on Kalshi. Next decision 27–28 October.", "publishedAt": "2026-09-06", "updatedAt": "2026-09-16", "headline": { "label": "Hike priced an hour before the decision", "value": "87.5%", "note": "Both venues, 16 September 2026 17:00 UTC; the Fed raised 25 bp to 3.75–4.00% at 18:00 UTC. Multi-outcome Brier 0.029 Polymarket, 0.031 Kalshi, lower is better. The original 6 September study read the same Polymarket contract at 49.5%." }, "facts": [ { "label": "Kalshi, 25 bp hike — 6 Sep", "value": "49.0%", "note": "Original study, observed 2026-09-06 07:00 UTC. Hold 49.0%, cut 1.0%: last hourly candle close on KXFEDDECISION-26SEP." }, { "label": "Largest daily gap, 30 days to 6 Sep", "value": "3.5¢", "note": "Polymarket minus Kalshi on the hike contract. The study's illustrative two-leg taker estimate at 50 cents was 2.75 cents; see the fees section for what that does and does not establish." }, { "label": "Wallets on the three contracts, 7 days to 6 Sep", "value": "5,120", "note": "13,659 fills, $5.90M notional; the round-the-clock cohort was 131 wallets making 19.8% of trades" } ], "note": "How Polymarket and Kalshi priced each 2026 FOMC decision, scored against the outcome. Both venues had the 16 September hike at 87.5% an hour out; the multi-outcome Brier was 0.029 on Polymarket and 0.031 on Kalshi. The FOMC raised the target range 25 basis points to 3.75–4.00% at 18:00 UTC on 16 September 2026. The two checkpoints below were locked by the forecast record before the announcement — 24 hours out and one hour out. The 14-day and 7-day checkpoints are absent because the record opened on 12 September. Both venues had the hike as the clear favourite at both checkpoints, and what was left over sat almost entirely on “hold” rather than on a cut. Polymarket scored a little better at both, 0.029 against Kalshi’s 0.037 a day out and 0.031 an hour out, but the two sums run over different contract sets, so the gap is narrow rather than decisive.", "measurement": "Observed 2026-09-15 to 2026-09-16, population: Polymarket and Kalshi September 2026 FOMC decision contracts.", "images": { "illustration": { "url": "https://vultax.com/research/fed-coin-flip-polymarket-card.webp", "path": "/research/fed-coin-flip-polymarket-card.webp", "alt": "A thin gold circle balanced on its edge on a thin line, on black, casting two faint identical shadows", "credit": "Vultax Research" }, "shareCard": { "url": "https://vultax.com/og/article/research/fed-september-decision-coin-flip-polymarket-kalshi", "credit": "Vultax Research" } }, "links": { "study": "https://vultax.com/research/fed-september-decision-coin-flip-polymarket-kalshi", "press": "https://vultax.com/research/fed-september-decision-coin-flip-polymarket-kalshi/press", "text": "https://vultax.com/research/fed-september-decision-coin-flip-polymarket-kalshi/press.txt", "markdown": "https://vultax.com/research/fed-september-decision-coin-flip-polymarket-kalshi.md", "datasetJson": "https://vultax.com/research/fed-september-decision-coin-flip-polymarket-kalshi/data.json", "datasetCsv": "https://vultax.com/research/fed-september-decision-coin-flip-polymarket-kalshi/data.csv?dataset=section-scored-16-september-2026-table", "terminal": { "url": "https://app.vultax.com/predictions/topic/powell-fomc", "label": "Open live Fed rate decision odds", "description": "The next FOMC decisions priced live on Polymarket, with 24h volume, liquidity and the remaining 2026 meeting dates." }, "embed": "https://vultax.com/embed/fed" }, "citation": "Vultax Research, Fed Decision Odds, Scored: Polymarket vs Kalshi at Every 2026 FOMC Meeting, 2026-09-16, https://vultax.com/research/fed-september-decision-coin-flip-polymarket-kalshi", "subject": "Vultax Research: Fed Decision Odds, Scored: Polymarket vs Kalshi at Every 2026 FOMC Meeting", "text": "Hike priced an hour before the decision: 87.5%\n\nHow Polymarket and Kalshi priced each 2026 FOMC decision, scored against the outcome. Both venues had the 16 September hike at 87.5% an hour out; the multi-outcome Brier was 0.029 on Polymarket and 0.031 on Kalshi.\n\n- Kalshi, 25 bp hike — 6 Sep: 49.0%\n- Largest daily gap, 30 days to 6 Sep: 3.5¢\n- Wallets on the three contracts, 7 days to 6 Sep: 5,120\n\nObserved 2026-09-15 to 2026-09-16, population: Polymarket and Kalshi September 2026 FOMC decision contracts.\n\nStudy: https://vultax.com/research/fed-september-decision-coin-flip-polymarket-kalshi\nMarkdown: https://vultax.com/research/fed-september-decision-coin-flip-polymarket-kalshi.md\nData: https://vultax.com/research/fed-september-decision-coin-flip-polymarket-kalshi/data.json\nShare card: https://vultax.com/og/article/research/fed-september-decision-coin-flip-polymarket-kalshi\nLive screen: https://app.vultax.com/predictions/topic/powell-fomc\nLive embed: https://vultax.com/embed/fed\n\nVultax Research, Fed Decision Odds, Scored: Polymarket vs Kalshi at Every 2026 FOMC Meeting, 2026-09-16, https://vultax.com/research/fed-september-decision-coin-flip-polymarket-kalshi\n" }, { "slug": "polymarket-sports-and-esports-markets", "title": "Polymarket Sports and Esports: Esports Took 21.4% of the Money on the Thinnest Books", "description": "Of $727.0 million of Polymarket trading Vultax observed from 21 August to 12 September 2026, esports took 21.4%, peaking mid-morning UTC. Before start on 12–13 September, a typical League of Legends book held $413 within 2 cents; an NFL game $523,000 on Polymarket and $1.74 million on Kalshi.", "publishedAt": "2026-09-06", "updatedAt": "2026-09-16", "headline": { "label": "Esports share of observed Polymarket money", "value": "21.4%", "note": "$155.8 million of $727.0 million in 251 observed hours, 21 August to 12 September 2026, more than soccer, tennis or U.S. sports" }, "facts": [ { "label": "Typical League of Legends match book within 2¢ of the price", "value": "$413", "note": "Median over 51 Polymarket markets, readings up to six hours before start, 12–13 September 2026; an NFL game held $523K on Polymarket and $1.74M on Kalshi" }, { "label": "Largest wallet's share of a League of Legends market", "value": "25%", "note": "Median over 878 markets, 21 August to 12 September 2026; 58% for NFL markets and 65% for college football" }, { "label": "League of Legends at its busiest hour", "value": "$1.2M", "note": "Average traded at 10:00 UTC per observed hour, 21 August to 12 September 2026; at 03:00 UTC it was $18,000" } ], "note": "Of $727.0 million of Polymarket trading Vultax observed from 21 August to 12 September 2026, esports took 21.4%, peaking mid-morning UTC. Before start on 12–13 September, a typical League of Legends book held $413 within 2 cents; an NFL game $523,000 on Polymarket and $1.74 million on Kalshi. Esports carried the most money of any sport on Polymarket in Vultax's record, on the thinnest books of any sport measured. It came in a rush: League of Legends markets averaged about $1.1 million an hour between 08:00 and 11:00 UTC, the evening in Seoul and Shanghai, and $18,000 at 03:00. The books underneath are nothing alike. Yet the largest wallet in a typical League of Legends market held a quarter of the money, against 58% in an NFL market.", "measurement": "Observed 2026-08-21T12:00Z to 2026-09-12T18:00Z, population: 251 observed hours of Polymarket trading.", "images": { "illustration": { "url": "https://vultax.com/research/esports-out-traded-the-fed-card.webp", "path": "/research/esports-out-traded-the-fed-card.webp", "alt": "Two thin gold bars of equal height side by side on black, one made of scattered points of light and one solid", "credit": "Vultax Research" }, "shareCard": { "url": "https://vultax.com/og/article/research/polymarket-sports-and-esports-markets", "credit": "Vultax Research" } }, "links": { "study": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-sports-and-esports-markets", "press": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-sports-and-esports-markets/press", "text": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-sports-and-esports-markets/press.txt", "markdown": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-sports-and-esports-markets.md", "datasetJson": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-sports-and-esports-markets/data.json", "datasetCsv": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-sports-and-esports-markets/data.csv?dataset=clock-chart", "terminal": { "url": "https://app.vultax.com/analytics/markets", "label": "Open the Polymarket market directory", "description": "Sort every open Polymarket market, sports and esports included, by 24-hour volume or liquidity, with Vultax analytics for each." }, "embed": null }, "citation": "Vultax Research, Polymarket Sports and Esports: Esports Took 21.4% of the Money on the Thinnest Books, 2026-09-16, https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-sports-and-esports-markets", "subject": "Vultax Research: Polymarket Sports and Esports: Esports Took 21.4% of the Money on the Thinnest Books", "text": "Esports share of observed Polymarket money: 21.4%\n\nOf $727.0 million of Polymarket trading Vultax observed from 21 August to 12 September 2026, esports took 21.4%, peaking mid-morning UTC. Before start on 12–13 September, a typical League of Legends book held $413 within 2 cents; an NFL game $523,000 on Polymarket and $1.74 million on Kalshi.\n\n- Typical League of Legends match book within 2¢ of the price: $413\n- Largest wallet's share of a League of Legends market: 25%\n- League of Legends at its busiest hour: $1.2M\n\nObserved 2026-08-21T12:00Z to 2026-09-12T18:00Z, population: 251 observed hours of Polymarket trading.\n\nStudy: https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-sports-and-esports-markets\nMarkdown: https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-sports-and-esports-markets.md\nData: https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-sports-and-esports-markets/data.json\nShare card: https://vultax.com/og/article/research/polymarket-sports-and-esports-markets\nLive screen: https://app.vultax.com/analytics/markets\n\nVultax Research, Polymarket Sports and Esports: Esports Took 21.4% of the Money on the Thinnest Books, 2026-09-16, https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-sports-and-esports-markets\n" }, { "slug": "crypto-whale-trades-115000-alerts-six-exchanges", "title": "115,006 Large-Trade Alerts: Where and When Crypto Whales Trade, by Venue and Hour", "description": "Every large-trade alert Vultax logged on six exchanges from 18 June to 3 September 2026: HTX carried 56% of large-trade notional, flow stayed close to balanced, 13:00–16:00 UTC held 23.6% of alerts, and weekends ran 23–30% quieter.", "publishedAt": "2026-09-03", "updatedAt": "2026-09-16", "headline": { "label": "Alerts logged", "value": "115,006", "note": "18 June to 3 September 2026 across Binance, HTX, Coinbase, Gate.io, Kraken and KuCoin; 60 days with data" }, "facts": [ { "label": "HTX share of large-trade notional", "value": "56%", "note": "19,617 single large trades worth $2.88B; Binance printed more large trades, 20,022, worth $1.10B" }, { "label": "Peak window", "value": "13:00–16:00 UTC", "note": "23.6% of all large-trade alerts in four hours; the busiest hour (15:00) ran 1.9 times the quietest (23:00)" }, { "label": "Buy share", "value": "51.1%", "note": "Alerts flagged as buys; between 47.5% and 52.6% on every venue and 49.2% to 53.4% in every hour of the day" } ], "note": "Every large-trade alert Vultax logged on six exchanges from 18 June to 3 September 2026: HTX carried 56% of large-trade notional, flow stayed close to balanced, 13:00–16:00 UTC held 23.6% of alerts, and weekends ran 23–30% quieter. Binance printed the most large trades, 20,022, but HTX carried the most money: 19,617 large trades worth $2.88B, 56% of large-trade notional, with a 90th-percentile print of $364,000 against Binance's $84,000. The largest single print was a $7.06M BTC-USD sell on Coinbase on 27 June. 51.1% of alerts were buys, between 47.5% and 52.6% on every venue and between 49.2% and 53.4% in every hour of the day. What moved was how much printed: the four hours from 13:00 to 16:00 UTC carried 23.6% of all alerts, the busiest hour ran 1.9 times the quietest, and Saturday and Sunday ran 23% and 30% below the weekday average.", "measurement": "Observed 2026-06-18 to 2026-09-03, population: 59,803 single large-trade alerts on six exchanges.", "images": { "illustration": { "url": "https://vultax.com/research/crypto-whale-trades-115000-alerts-six-exchanges-card.webp", "path": "/research/crypto-whale-trades-115000-alerts-six-exchanges-card.webp", "alt": "A field of faint gold points on black with one large bright point among them", "credit": "Vultax Research" }, "shareCard": { "url": "https://vultax.com/og/article/research/crypto-whale-trades-115000-alerts-six-exchanges", "credit": "Vultax Research" } }, "links": { "study": "https://vultax.com/research/crypto-whale-trades-115000-alerts-six-exchanges", "press": "https://vultax.com/research/crypto-whale-trades-115000-alerts-six-exchanges/press", "text": "https://vultax.com/research/crypto-whale-trades-115000-alerts-six-exchanges/press.txt", "markdown": "https://vultax.com/research/crypto-whale-trades-115000-alerts-six-exchanges.md", "datasetJson": "https://vultax.com/research/crypto-whale-trades-115000-alerts-six-exchanges/data.json", "datasetCsv": "https://vultax.com/research/crypto-whale-trades-115000-alerts-six-exchanges/data.csv?dataset=section-what-was-measured-chart", "terminal": { "url": "https://app.vultax.com/predictions/crypto/BTCUSDT", "label": "Open the BTC venue desk", "description": "Watch large bitcoin trades as they print, alongside each venue's order book, the cross-exchange gap and liquidity." }, "embed": null }, "citation": "Vultax Research, 115,006 Large-Trade Alerts: Where and When Crypto Whales Trade, by Venue and Hour, 2026-09-16, https://vultax.com/research/crypto-whale-trades-115000-alerts-six-exchanges", "subject": "Vultax Research: 115,006 Large-Trade Alerts: Where and When Crypto Whales Trade, by Venue and Hour", "text": "Alerts logged: 115,006\n\nEvery large-trade alert Vultax logged on six exchanges from 18 June to 3 September 2026: HTX carried 56% of large-trade notional, flow stayed close to balanced, 13:00–16:00 UTC held 23.6% of alerts, and weekends ran 23–30% quieter. The largest single print was a $7.06M BTC-USD sell on Coinbase on 27 June.\n\n- HTX share of large-trade notional: 56%\n- Peak window: 13:00–16:00 UTC\n- Buy share: 51.1%\n\nObserved 2026-06-18 to 2026-09-03, population: 59,803 single large-trade alerts on six exchanges.\n\nStudy: https://vultax.com/research/crypto-whale-trades-115000-alerts-six-exchanges\nMarkdown: https://vultax.com/research/crypto-whale-trades-115000-alerts-six-exchanges.md\nData: https://vultax.com/research/crypto-whale-trades-115000-alerts-six-exchanges/data.json\nShare card: https://vultax.com/og/article/research/crypto-whale-trades-115000-alerts-six-exchanges\nLive screen: https://app.vultax.com/predictions/crypto/BTCUSDT\n\nVultax Research, 115,006 Large-Trade Alerts: Where and When Crypto Whales Trade, by Venue and Hour, 2026-09-16, https://vultax.com/research/crypto-whale-trades-115000-alerts-six-exchanges\n" }, { "slug": "crypto-exchange-feed-latency-september-2026", "title": "Crypto Exchange Feed Latency and Coverage: 16 Venues Measured", "description": "Order-book feed latency on 16 crypto exchanges: medians from 35.0 ms (Coinbase) to 111.5 ms (BTSE), a 95th percentile of 288–590 ms on every venue, and data in every minute of the day. Plus the coverage check that catches a feed that stays connected and stores almost nothing.", "publishedAt": "2026-09-02", "updatedAt": "2026-09-16", "headline": { "label": "Feed latency at the 95th percentile", "value": "288–590 ms", "note": "Range across 16 venues; every venue was above 100 ms at p95, while 15 of 16 were under 100 ms at the median" }, "facts": [ { "label": "Fastest median", "value": "35.0 ms", "note": "Coinbase, over 64,647 snapshots in the one-hour latency sample" }, { "label": "Slowest median", "value": "111.5 ms", "note": "BTSE, over 27,418 snapshots; the only venue with a median above 100 ms" }, { "label": "Coverage check, one venue feed", "value": "12 of 1,440 min", "note": "Minutes with data over 24 hours while every connection-level check reported healthy; caught by the minute-level audit and fixed the same day" } ], "note": "Order-book feed latency on 16 crypto exchanges: medians from 35.0 ms (Coinbase) to 111.5 ms (BTSE), a 95th percentile of 288–590 ms on every venue, and data in every minute of the day. Plus the coverage check that catches a feed that stays connected and stores almost nothing. Vultax measured the order-book feeds of 16 centralised crypto exchanges and asked two separate questions. The first is how late data arrives. Fifteen venues had a median under 100 ms, from 35.0 ms on Coinbase to 111.5 ms on BTSE, but every venue exceeded 100 ms at the 95th percentile, which ran from 288.5 ms to 589.7 ms. The tail is what a cross-venue comparison waits for. The second is whether data arrives at all.", "measurement": "population: 16 centralised crypto exchanges with order-book snapshot feeds.", "images": { "illustration": { "url": "https://vultax.com/research/crypto-exchange-feed-latency-september-2026-card.webp", "path": "/research/crypto-exchange-feed-latency-september-2026-card.webp", "alt": "Sixteen thin gold lines of different heights on black, one brighter than the rest", "credit": "Vultax Research" }, "shareCard": { "url": "https://vultax.com/og/article/research/crypto-exchange-feed-latency-september-2026", "credit": "Vultax Research" } }, "links": { "study": "https://vultax.com/research/crypto-exchange-feed-latency-september-2026", "press": "https://vultax.com/research/crypto-exchange-feed-latency-september-2026/press", "text": "https://vultax.com/research/crypto-exchange-feed-latency-september-2026/press.txt", "markdown": "https://vultax.com/research/crypto-exchange-feed-latency-september-2026.md", "datasetJson": "https://vultax.com/research/crypto-exchange-feed-latency-september-2026/data.json", "datasetCsv": "https://vultax.com/research/crypto-exchange-feed-latency-september-2026/data.csv?dataset=section-observed-median-latency-by-venue-table", "terminal": { "url": "https://app.vultax.com/predictions/crypto/BTCUSDT", "label": "Open the BTC venue desk", "description": "Bitcoin order books from each connected exchange side by side, with the cross-exchange gap, liquidity and large trades." }, "embed": null }, "citation": "Vultax Research, Crypto Exchange Feed Latency and Coverage: 16 Venues Measured, 2026-09-16, https://vultax.com/research/crypto-exchange-feed-latency-september-2026", "subject": "Vultax Research: Crypto Exchange Feed Latency and Coverage: 16 Venues Measured", "text": "Feed latency at the 95th percentile: 288–590 ms\n\nOrder-book feed latency on 16 crypto exchanges: medians from 35.0 ms (Coinbase) to 111.5 ms (BTSE), a 95th percentile of 288–590 ms on every venue, and data in every minute of the day. Plus the coverage check that catches a feed that stays connected and stores almost nothing. Vultax measured the order-book feeds of 16 centralised crypto exchanges and asked two separate questions.\n\n- Fastest median: 35.0 ms\n- Slowest median: 111.5 ms\n- Coverage check, one venue feed: 12 of 1,440 min\n\npopulation: 16 centralised crypto exchanges with order-book snapshot feeds.\n\nStudy: https://vultax.com/research/crypto-exchange-feed-latency-september-2026\nMarkdown: https://vultax.com/research/crypto-exchange-feed-latency-september-2026.md\nData: https://vultax.com/research/crypto-exchange-feed-latency-september-2026/data.json\nShare card: https://vultax.com/og/article/research/crypto-exchange-feed-latency-september-2026\nLive screen: https://app.vultax.com/predictions/crypto/BTCUSDT\n\nVultax Research, Crypto Exchange Feed Latency and Coverage: 16 Venues Measured, 2026-09-16, https://vultax.com/research/crypto-exchange-feed-latency-september-2026\n" }, { "slug": "crypto-wash-trading-what-the-research-shows", "title": "Crypto Wash Trading and Real Liquidity: Fake-Volume Estimates Run From 51% to 95%", "description": "Published estimates put fake or non-economic bitcoin volume at 51% to 95%, and above 70% on unregulated venues. Why the studies disagree, why depth and slippage judge a venue better than volume (Binance: 64.3% of volume, 30.7% of depth, per Kaiko), and what to check yourself.", "publishedAt": "2026-09-02", "updatedAt": "2026-09-16", "headline": { "label": "Published fake-volume estimates", "value": "51%–95%", "note": "Share of reported bitcoin volume judged fake or non-economic: Forbes 2022, 157 exchanges, to Bitwise 2019, an 83-exchange sample" }, "facts": [ { "label": "Unregulated venues", "value": ">70%", "note": "Share of reported volume estimated as wash trading by Cong, Li, Tang and Yang across 29 centralised exchanges" }, { "label": "Binance volume share vs depth share", "value": "64.3% vs 30.7%", "note": "Share of global trade volume against share of global market depth, in Kaiko's 2023 measurement" }, { "label": "Charged, March 2026", "value": "10", "note": "Foreign nationals tied to four market-making firms, after an undercover FBI operation that traded a bureau-created token" } ], "note": "Published estimates put fake or non-economic bitcoin volume at 51% to 95%, and above 70% on unregulated venues. Why the studies disagree, why depth and slippage judge a venue better than volume (Binance: 64.3% of volume, 30.7% of depth, per Kaiko), and what to check yourself. There is no agreed figure for how much reported crypto volume is real. That regulated-versus-unregulated gap is the most consistent finding across all of them. Volume is the easiest number to inflate, because it can be printed without consuming liquidity; depth cannot be faked without capital actually at risk in the book. In Kaiko's measurement Binance accounted for 64.3% of global trade volume but 30.7% of global market depth. So judge a venue by what its book will absorb: spread, depth near the mid, how fast the book refills, and the slippage you actually pay at your size.", "measurement": "The observation window and population are stated in the study's method section.", "images": { "illustration": { "url": "https://vultax.com/research/crypto-wash-trading-what-the-research-shows-card.webp", "path": "/research/crypto-wash-trading-what-the-research-shows-card.webp", "alt": "Two mirrored constellations of gold points joined by faint threads on black", "credit": "Vultax Research" }, "shareCard": { "url": "https://vultax.com/og/article/research/crypto-wash-trading-what-the-research-shows", "credit": "Vultax Research" } }, "links": { "study": "https://vultax.com/research/crypto-wash-trading-what-the-research-shows", "press": "https://vultax.com/research/crypto-wash-trading-what-the-research-shows/press", "text": "https://vultax.com/research/crypto-wash-trading-what-the-research-shows/press.txt", "markdown": "https://vultax.com/research/crypto-wash-trading-what-the-research-shows.md", "datasetJson": null, "datasetCsv": null, "terminal": { "url": "https://app.vultax.com/predictions/crypto/BTCUSDT", "label": "Open the BTC venue desk", "description": "Compare bitcoin order-book depth and liquidity across connected exchanges, with large trades, rather than relying on reported volume." }, "embed": null }, "citation": "Vultax Research, Crypto Wash Trading and Real Liquidity: Fake-Volume Estimates Run From 51% to 95%, 2026-09-16, https://vultax.com/research/crypto-wash-trading-what-the-research-shows", "subject": "Vultax Research: Crypto Wash Trading and Real Liquidity: Fake-Volume Estimates Run From 51% to 95%", "text": "Published fake-volume estimates: 51%–95%\n\nPublished estimates put fake or non-economic bitcoin volume at 51% to 95%, and above 70% on unregulated venues. Why the studies disagree, why depth and slippage judge a venue better than volume (Binance: 64.3% of volume, 30.7% of depth, per Kaiko), and what to check yourself. There is no agreed figure for how much reported crypto volume is real. That regulated-versus-unregulated gap is the most consistent finding across all of them.\n\n- Unregulated venues: >70%\n- Binance volume share vs depth share: 64.3% vs 30.7%\n- Charged, March 2026: 10\n\nThe observation window and population are stated in the study's method section.\n\nStudy: https://vultax.com/research/crypto-wash-trading-what-the-research-shows\nMarkdown: https://vultax.com/research/crypto-wash-trading-what-the-research-shows.md\nShare card: https://vultax.com/og/article/research/crypto-wash-trading-what-the-research-shows\nLive screen: https://app.vultax.com/predictions/crypto/BTCUSDT\n\nVultax Research, Crypto Wash Trading and Real Liquidity: Fake-Volume Estimates Run From 51% to 95%, 2026-09-16, https://vultax.com/research/crypto-wash-trading-what-the-research-shows\n" }, { "slug": "is-polymarket-legal-in-the-us-2026", "title": "Is Polymarket Legal in the US? Where Prediction Markets Stand in September 2026", "description": "Polymarket US runs on a CFTC-registered exchange; polymarket.com is still closed to Americans. The sports contracts behind 86% of Kalshi's volume have split two federal appeals courts. Court by court, as of 12 September 2026.", "publishedAt": "2026-09-14", "updatedAt": "2026-09-14", "headline": { "label": "Federal appeals courts, for and against", "value": "1–1", "note": "Third Circuit for Kalshi in New Jersey (6 April 2026); Ninth Circuit for Nevada (28 August 2026). New Jersey petitioned the Supreme Court on 2 September" }, "facts": [ { "label": "Kalshi contracts traded that were sports", "value": "86.4%", "note": "111.9 million of 129.5 million contracts in the 24 hours to 18:32 UTC on 12 September 2026, across 14,968 open events; Vultax reading of Kalshi's public API" }, { "label": "CFTC final rule on event contracts", "value": "None yet", "note": "Proposed 10 June 2026 with a public-interest test for terrorism, assassination, war, gaming and unlawful activity; comments closed 27 July" }, { "label": "Polymarket's 2022 CFTC penalty", "value": "$1.4M", "note": "3 January 2022 order against Blockratize, Inc. for offering event contracts without a registered exchange; Polymarket US now runs on the QCX exchange it bought for $112 million in July 2025" } ], "note": "Polymarket US runs on a CFTC-registered exchange; polymarket.com is still closed to Americans. The sports contracts behind 86% of Kalshi's volume have split two federal appeals courts. Court by court, as of 12 September 2026. Two different exchanges carry the Polymarket name. Polymarket US runs on QCX, a CFTC-designated contract market that Polymarket bought for $112 million in July 2025, and it has been opening to American users since 3 December 2025, sports first. Federal registration answers the federal question, not the state one. Sports is not a side issue in that fight. When Vultax read Kalshi's public market data on 12 September, 86.4% of the contracts traded in the previous 24 hours were sports contracts. It is not legal advice, and state positions are changing month to month.", "measurement": "Observed 2022-01 to 2026-09.", "images": { "illustration": { "url": "https://vultax.com/research/is-polymarket-legal-in-the-us-2026-card.webp", "path": "/research/is-polymarket-legal-in-the-us-2026-card.webp", "alt": "A thin gold line crossing a grid of small glowing points on black, with one point sitting exactly on the line", "credit": "Vultax Research" }, "shareCard": { "url": "https://vultax.com/og/article/research/is-polymarket-legal-in-the-us-2026", "credit": "Vultax Research" } }, "links": { "study": "https://vultax.com/research/is-polymarket-legal-in-the-us-2026", "press": "https://vultax.com/research/is-polymarket-legal-in-the-us-2026/press", "text": "https://vultax.com/research/is-polymarket-legal-in-the-us-2026/press.txt", "markdown": "https://vultax.com/research/is-polymarket-legal-in-the-us-2026.md", "datasetJson": "https://vultax.com/research/is-polymarket-legal-in-the-us-2026/data.json", "datasetCsv": "https://vultax.com/research/is-polymarket-legal-in-the-us-2026/data.csv?dataset=two-venues-table", "terminal": { "url": "https://app.vultax.com/predictions", "label": "Open the prediction terminal", "description": "Live Polymarket markets, topics and traders in one screen, with Vultax analytics beside every price." }, "embed": null }, "citation": "Vultax Research, Is Polymarket Legal in the US? Where Prediction Markets Stand in September 2026, 2026-09-14, https://vultax.com/research/is-polymarket-legal-in-the-us-2026", "subject": "Vultax Research: Is Polymarket Legal in the US? Where Prediction Markets Stand in September 2026", "text": "Federal appeals courts, for and against: 1–1\n\nPolymarket US runs on a CFTC-registered exchange; polymarket.com is still closed to Americans. The sports contracts behind 86% of Kalshi's volume have split two federal appeals courts. Court by court, as of 12 September 2026. Two different exchanges carry the Polymarket name. Federal registration answers the federal question, not the state one. Sports is not a side issue in that fight.\n\n- Kalshi contracts traded that were sports: 86.4%\n- CFTC final rule on event contracts: None yet\n- Polymarket's 2022 CFTC penalty: $1.4M\n\nObserved 2022-01 to 2026-09.\n\nStudy: https://vultax.com/research/is-polymarket-legal-in-the-us-2026\nMarkdown: https://vultax.com/research/is-polymarket-legal-in-the-us-2026.md\nData: https://vultax.com/research/is-polymarket-legal-in-the-us-2026/data.json\nShare card: https://vultax.com/og/article/research/is-polymarket-legal-in-the-us-2026\nLive screen: https://app.vultax.com/predictions\n\nVultax Research, Is Polymarket Legal in the US? Where Prediction Markets Stand in September 2026, 2026-09-14, https://vultax.com/research/is-polymarket-legal-in-the-us-2026\n" }, { "slug": "polymarket-wallets-that-never-sleep-trading-cadence", "title": "1.6% of Polymarket Wallets Never Sleep. They Made 58% of All Trades.", "description": "Hourly activity for 130,346 Polymarket wallets over 12 days in August and September 2026: 2,080 wallets were active in every hour of the clock and filled 58.4% of 9.82 million trades. The ten busiest wallets alone filled one trade in five. Half of all wallets traded on a single day.", "publishedAt": "2026-09-09", "updatedAt": "2026-09-09", "headline": { "label": "Wallets active in every hour of the clock", "value": "1.6%", "note": "2,080 of 130,346 wallets seen between 22 August and 2 September 2026. Together they filled 58.4% of 9.82M trades and 26.9% of $448M notional" }, "facts": [ { "label": "Trades filled by the ten busiest wallets", "value": "20.9%", "note": "The busiest single wallet filled 947,876 trades in 12 days, roughly one a second. All ten were active on all 12 days and in all 24 clock-hours" }, { "label": "Wallets that traded in a single hour", "value": "42.6%", "note": "55,548 wallets. Half of all wallets (50.1%) were active on one day only; the median wallet made 3 trades worth $40" }, { "label": "Median trade, round-the-clock wallets", "value": "$7.50", "note": "Against $8.67 for everyone else. The cohort's median wallet filled 498 trades at 5.4 per active hour; its 90th percentile filled 4,335" } ], "note": "Hourly activity for 130,346 Polymarket wallets over 12 days in August and September 2026: 2,080 wallets were active in every hour of the clock and filled 58.4% of 9.82 million trades. The ten busiest wallets alone filled one trade in five. Half of all wallets traded on a single day. Vultax's prediction-market pipeline materialises Polymarket activity into hourly buckets: for every wallet, every market and every UTC hour, the number of fills, the buy and sell split and the notional traded. This study reads those buckets for the 12 complete days from 22 August to 2 September 2026. In that window the pipeline saw 130,346 distinct wallets, 9,816,634 trades and $448.5 million of notional across every market it tracks. The question is cadence, not identity: when does each wallet trade, and how much of the market do the wallets that trade around the clock account for?", "measurement": "The observation window and population are stated in the study's method section.", "images": { "illustration": { "url": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-wallets-that-never-sleep-trading-cadence-card.webp", "path": "/research/polymarket-wallets-that-never-sleep-trading-cadence-card.webp", "alt": "A faint 24-hour clock ring on black with points of light at every hour and one dense cluster", "credit": "Vultax Research" }, "shareCard": { "url": "https://vultax.com/og/article/research/polymarket-wallets-that-never-sleep-trading-cadence", "credit": "Vultax Research" } }, "links": { "study": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-wallets-that-never-sleep-trading-cadence", "press": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-wallets-that-never-sleep-trading-cadence/press", "text": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-wallets-that-never-sleep-trading-cadence/press.txt", "markdown": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-wallets-that-never-sleep-trading-cadence.md", "datasetJson": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-wallets-that-never-sleep-trading-cadence/data.json", "datasetCsv": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-wallets-that-never-sleep-trading-cadence/data.csv?dataset=section-who-never-sleeps-table", "terminal": { "url": "https://app.vultax.com/analytics/traders", "label": "Open Polymarket trader analytics", "description": "Every tracked Polymarket wallet with its realised P&L, activity and ranking, updated from Vultax's fill record." }, "embed": null }, "citation": "Vultax Research, 1.6% of Polymarket Wallets Never Sleep. They Made 58% of All Trades., 2026-09-09, https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-wallets-that-never-sleep-trading-cadence", "subject": "Vultax Research: 1.6% of Polymarket Wallets Never Sleep. They Made 58% of All Trades.", "text": "Wallets active in every hour of the clock: 1.6%\n\nHourly activity for 130,346 Polymarket wallets over 12 days in August and September 2026: 2,080 wallets were active in every hour of the clock and filled 58.4% of 9.82 million trades. The ten busiest wallets alone filled one trade in five. Half of all wallets traded on a single day.\n\n- Trades filled by the ten busiest wallets: 20.9%\n- Wallets that traded in a single hour: 42.6%\n- Median trade, round-the-clock wallets: $7.50\n\nThe observation window and population are stated in the study's method section.\n\nStudy: https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-wallets-that-never-sleep-trading-cadence\nMarkdown: https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-wallets-that-never-sleep-trading-cadence.md\nData: https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-wallets-that-never-sleep-trading-cadence/data.json\nShare card: https://vultax.com/og/article/research/polymarket-wallets-that-never-sleep-trading-cadence\nLive screen: https://app.vultax.com/analytics/traders\n\nVultax Research, 1.6% of Polymarket Wallets Never Sleep. They Made 58% of All Trades., 2026-09-09, https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-wallets-that-never-sleep-trading-cadence\n" }, { "slug": "prediction-market-fair-value-calibration", "title": "We Tested Polymarket Prices Against 6,776 Resolved Markets. Here's Where They Bend.", "description": "Original Vultax research: in an experimental test, a calibrated fair-value model beat raw Polymarket prices by ~9.6% on held-out Brier score. Where the favorite-longshot effect lives, what the model can honestly flag, and why it still isn't a trading edge.", "publishedAt": "2026-09-08", "updatedAt": "2026-09-08", "headline": { "label": "Validation sample", "value": "6,776 markets", "note": "Resolved Yes/No markets with known outcomes." }, "facts": [ { "label": "Brier improvement", "value": "≈ +9.6%", "note": "Experimental, held-out markets: 0.0352 → 0.0319 versus raw market prices." }, { "label": "Where prices bend", "value": "Near 0 and 1", "note": "The calibrated mapping's improvement concentrated at the longshot and near-certain ends of the price range." } ], "note": "Original Vultax research: in an experimental test, a calibrated fair-value model beat raw Polymarket prices by ~9.6% on held-out Brier score. Where the favorite-longshot effect lives, what the model can honestly flag, and why it still isn't a trading edge. Prediction-market prices are good probability estimates on average — that is the standard result, and it held in our data. But 'good on average' leaves room for systematic, repeatable distortion, and the best-documented one is the favorite-longshot effect: low-probability outcomes trade above their true frequency and near-certain outcomes trade slightly below it. A fair-value model, honestly defined, answers one question: given where this market is priced, where did markets priced like it historically resolve? That is a calibration question, and calibration questions have a standard scoring rule.", "measurement": "The observation window and population are stated in the study's method section.", "images": { "illustration": { "url": "https://vultax.com/research/prediction-market-fair-value-calibration-card.webp", "path": "/research/prediction-market-fair-value-calibration-card.webp", "alt": "A faint diagonal line crossed twice by a gently bending gold curve on black", "credit": "Vultax Research" }, "shareCard": { "url": "https://vultax.com/og/article/research/prediction-market-fair-value-calibration", "credit": "Vultax Research" } }, "links": { "study": "https://vultax.com/research/prediction-market-fair-value-calibration", "press": "https://vultax.com/research/prediction-market-fair-value-calibration/press", "text": "https://vultax.com/research/prediction-market-fair-value-calibration/press.txt", "markdown": "https://vultax.com/research/prediction-market-fair-value-calibration.md", "datasetJson": null, "datasetCsv": null, "terminal": { "url": "https://app.vultax.com/analytics/markets", "label": "Browse markets in Vultax", "description": "Every open Polymarket market with its price history, liquidity and Vultax analytics." }, "embed": null }, "citation": "Vultax Research, We Tested Polymarket Prices Against 6,776 Resolved Markets. Here's Where They Bend., 2026-09-08, https://vultax.com/research/prediction-market-fair-value-calibration", "subject": "Vultax Research: We Tested Polymarket Prices Against 6,776 Resolved Markets. Here's Where They Bend.", "text": "Validation sample: 6,776 markets\n\nOriginal Vultax research: in an experimental test, a calibrated fair-value model beat raw Polymarket prices by ~9.6% on held-out Brier score. Where the favorite-longshot effect lives, what the model can honestly flag, and why it still isn't a trading edge. Prediction-market prices are good probability estimates on average — that is the standard result, and it held in our data. A fair-value model, honestly defined, answers one question: given where this market is priced, where did markets priced like it historically resolve?\n\n- Brier improvement: ≈ +9.6%\n- Where prices bend: Near 0 and 1\n\nThe observation window and population are stated in the study's method section.\n\nStudy: https://vultax.com/research/prediction-market-fair-value-calibration\nMarkdown: https://vultax.com/research/prediction-market-fair-value-calibration.md\nShare card: https://vultax.com/og/article/research/prediction-market-fair-value-calibration\nLive screen: https://app.vultax.com/analytics/markets\n\nVultax Research, We Tested Polymarket Prices Against 6,776 Resolved Markets. Here's Where They Bend., 2026-09-08, https://vultax.com/research/prediction-market-fair-value-calibration\n" }, { "slug": "order-book-spoofing-what-it-looks-like", "title": "Order-Book Spoofing: What It Looks Like in Live Data", "description": "Spoofing is defined by intent, which no market-data feed can observe. Here are the order-book patterns that stand in for it, and where they fail.", "publishedAt": "2026-09-02", "updatedAt": "2026-09-07", "headline": { "label": "Largest spoofing penalty", "value": "$920.2M", "note": "CFTC order against JPMorgan Chase covering spoofing and manipulation in precious metals and Treasury futures" }, "facts": [ { "label": "Largest single-firm spoofing relief", "value": "$67.4M", "note": "CFTC order against Tower Research Capital for orders placed with intent to cancel before execution" }, { "label": "Defining element", "value": "Intent", "note": "Under U.S. law the offence is bidding or offering with intent to cancel before execution — a state of mind, not a pattern" }, { "label": "What a feed can observe", "value": "Behaviour only", "note": "Placement, size, distance from touch, cancellation timing, and price reaction" } ], "note": "Spoofing is defined by intent, which no market-data feed can observe. Here are the order-book patterns that stand in for it, and where they fail. Spoofing, as regulators define it, is bidding or offering with the intent to cancel the order before execution. The offence lives in the trader's intent. That is a critical point for anyone building or buying a detection tool, because intent is precisely the thing that market data cannot contain. Enforcement history makes the standard concrete. The CFTC's order against JPMorgan Chase covered conduct spanning at least eight years and hundreds of thousands of orders, and carried $920.2 million in monetary relief — the largest the agency has imposed. Its order against Tower Research Capital found orders placed with intent to cancel before execution and required $67.4 million in restitution, disgorgement and penalties.", "measurement": "The observation window and population are stated in the study's method section.", "images": { "illustration": { "url": "https://vultax.com/research/order-book-spoofing-what-it-looks-like-card.webp", "path": "/research/order-book-spoofing-what-it-looks-like-card.webp", "alt": "A wall of thin gold lines dissolving into dust at one end, on black", "credit": "Vultax Research" }, "shareCard": { "url": "https://vultax.com/og/article/research/order-book-spoofing-what-it-looks-like", "credit": "Vultax Research" } }, "links": { "study": "https://vultax.com/research/order-book-spoofing-what-it-looks-like", "press": "https://vultax.com/research/order-book-spoofing-what-it-looks-like/press", "text": "https://vultax.com/research/order-book-spoofing-what-it-looks-like/press.txt", "markdown": "https://vultax.com/research/order-book-spoofing-what-it-looks-like.md", "datasetJson": null, "datasetCsv": null, "terminal": { "url": "https://app.vultax.com/predictions/crypto/BTCUSDT", "label": "Open the BTC venue desk", "description": "Order books, large prints and cross-venue prices for Bitcoin across connected exchanges, updated live." }, "embed": null }, "citation": "Vultax Research, Order-Book Spoofing: What It Looks Like in Live Data, 2026-09-07, https://vultax.com/research/order-book-spoofing-what-it-looks-like", "subject": "Vultax Research: Order-Book Spoofing: What It Looks Like in Live Data", "text": "Largest spoofing penalty: $920.2M\n\nSpoofing is defined by intent, which no market-data feed can observe. Here are the order-book patterns that stand in for it, and where they fail. Spoofing, as regulators define it, is bidding or offering with the intent to cancel the order before execution. The offence lives in the trader's intent. That is a critical point for anyone building or buying a detection tool, because intent is precisely the thing that market data cannot contain. Enforcement history makes the standard concrete.\n\n- Largest single-firm spoofing relief: $67.4M\n- Defining element: Intent\n- What a feed can observe: Behaviour only\n\nThe observation window and population are stated in the study's method section.\n\nStudy: https://vultax.com/research/order-book-spoofing-what-it-looks-like\nMarkdown: https://vultax.com/research/order-book-spoofing-what-it-looks-like.md\nShare card: https://vultax.com/og/article/research/order-book-spoofing-what-it-looks-like\nLive screen: https://app.vultax.com/predictions/crypto/BTCUSDT\n\nVultax Research, Order-Book Spoofing: What It Looks Like in Live Data, 2026-09-07, https://vultax.com/research/order-book-spoofing-what-it-looks-like\n" } ] }