# 2028 Election Odds: Vance 20%, Democrats 64.5%, and Three Democrats Within Two Points
JD Vance leads Polymarket's 2028 presidential market at 19.9% and Democrats are 64.5% to win the White House. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Gavin Newsom and Jon Ossoff are within two points of each other for the nomination, and the three markets do not add up.
Canonical URL: https://vultax.com/research/2028-presidential-election-odds-polymarket
Author: [Vultax Research](https://vultax.com/editorial-policy)
Published: 2026-10-27
Last public revision: 2026-10-27
AI-assisted drafting, research and editing. Published by OmniOS OÜ. [How we use AI](https://vultax.com/editorial-policy#ai)
Published research snapshots and calculations; these exports do not contain current quotes or live account data. Observation windows and populations are stated in the source captions and methodology. Missing metadata is unknown, not zero. A reading of public market prices at the stated times, not a forecast by Vultax, not a statement about any candidate and not advice to trade.
## Key figures
- Ocasio-Cortez's implied chance if nominated: 77.9% — Her 12.9% to win the presidency divided by her 16.6% to win the nomination; the Democratic party price is 64.5%
- JD Vance, 2028 winner price: 19.9% — Polymarket, 20:00 UTC on 26 October 2026. 31.5% at its peak on 17 December 2025
- Democrats to win the White House: 64.5% — Polymarket's party market, against 52.5% on 1 January 2026
- Gap between the top three Democrats: 1.9 pts — Ocasio-Cortez 16.6%, Newsom 15.5%, Ossoff 14.7% for the nomination
## The short answer
JD Vance leads Polymarket's 2028 presidential market at 19.9%, ahead of Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at 12.9% and Gavin Newsom at 11.5%. Democrats are 64.5% to win the White House and Republicans 34.5%. The prices were read at 20:00 UTC on 26 October 2026, eight days before the midterm elections.
The Democratic nomination is a three-way race: Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 16.6%, Gavin Newsom 15.5% and Jon Ossoff 14.7%. Newsom was 39.5% in November 2025. On the Republican side Vance is 37.6% for the nomination, down from 59.5%.
The three markets do not add up. A candidate's price to win the presidency divided by the price to win the nomination is the chance the market gives that candidate after a nomination. For Ocasio-Cortez that comes to 77.9%, well above the Democratic party's 64.5%. This page reads public prices; it is not a forecast.
## 2028 presidential election odds on Polymarket
The table sets each name's price in the winner market beside the price in that party's nomination market. The last column divides the first by the second: the chance to win in November 2028 if nominated, as the two markets price it.
Read across the rows, the market expects Vance to win 52.8% of the time if he is the Republican nominee, against 34.5% for Republicans in general. It expects Newsom to win 74.4% of the time as the Democratic nominee and Ossoff 63.8%, against 64.5% for Democrats in general.
Polymarket Yes prices at 20:00 UTC on 26 October 2026: each market's last minute price at or before that time. The last column is the first price divided by the second. Live prices are in the 2028 election odds room.
| Candidate | Party | Win the presidency | Win the nomination | Implied if nominated |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| JD Vance | Republican | 19.9% | 37.6% | 52.8% |
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | Democratic | 12.9% | 16.6% | 77.9% |
| Gavin Newsom | Democratic | 11.5% | 15.5% | 74.4% |
| Jon Ossoff | Democratic | 9.4% | 14.7% | 63.8% |
| Marco Rubio | Republican | 9.3% | 18.1% | 51.2% |
| Kamala Harris | Democratic | 3.9% | 6.4% | 60.6% |
| Josh Shapiro | Democratic | 3.0% | 5.0% | 59.0% |
| Pete Buttigieg | Democratic | 2.5% | 5.1% | 49.5% |
[CSV](https://vultax.com/research/2028-presidential-election-odds-polymarket/data.csv?dataset=section-2028-presidential-election-odds-on-polymarket-table), [JSON](https://vultax.com/research/2028-presidential-election-odds-polymarket/data.json?dataset=section-2028-presidential-election-odds-on-polymarket-table)
## How the 2028 lead has moved since July 2025
The winner market opened in July 2025. Vance has led it on 454 of its 463 days, peaking at 31.5% on 17 December 2025; he was 30.5% on 1 January 2026 and is 19.9% now. Marco Rubio led for 7 days and Newsom for 2, all in the spring and early summer of 2026.
Ossoff's line is the steepest. He was not listed in the winner market until February 2026 and is now fourth at 9.4%.
### 2028 presidential winner price, five names
Polymarket, Monday readings, 21 July 2025 to 26 October 2026. Percent.
| Category | JD Vance (%) | Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (%) | Jon Ossoff (%) | Gavin Newsom (%) | Marco Rubio (%) |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 21 Jul | 26.5 | 9.5 | 0 | 13.5 | 5.5 |
| 28 Jul | 27.5 | 10.5 | 0 | 13.5 | 4.5 |
| 4 Aug | 27.5 | 8.5 | 0 | 13.5 | 5.5 |
| 11 Aug | 26.5 | 8.5 | 0 | 12.5 | 5.5 |
| 18 Aug | 27.5 | 8.5 | 0 | 14.5 | 5.5 |
| 25 Aug | 26.5 | 8.5 | 0 | 18.5 | 4.5 |
| 1 Sep | 27.5 | 7.5 | 0 | 18.5 | 4.5 |
| 8 Sep | 27.5 | 6.5 | 0 | 22.5 | 4.5 |
| 15 Sep | 26.5 | 4.5 | 0 | 21.5 | 4.5 |
| 22 Sep | 26.5 | 6.5 | 0 | 20.5 | 4.5 |
| 29 Sep | 27.5 | 6.5 | 0 | 21.5 | 4.5 |
| 6 Oct | 28.5 | 6.5 | 0 | 21.5 | 4.5 |
| 13 Oct | 27.5 | 6.5 | 0 | 22.5 | 3.2 |
| 20 Oct | 28.5 | 6 | 0 | 22.5 | 2.7 |
| 27 Oct | 28.5 | 7.5 | 0 | 21.5 | 2.7 |
| 3 Nov | 28.5 | 8.5 | 0 | 20.5 | 4.7 |
| 10 Nov | 28.5 | 8.5 | 0 | 19.5 | 3.7 |
| 17 Nov | 28.5 | 8.5 | 0 | 18.5 | 3.4 |
| 24 Nov | 28.5 | 8.5 | 0 | 18.5 | 3.5 |
| 1 Dec | 28.5 | 8.5 | 0 | 17.5 | 3.7 |
| 8 Dec | 29.5 | 7.5 | 0 | 17.5 | 3.8 |
| 15 Dec | 30 | 7.5 | 0 | 17.5 | 3.9 |
| 22 Dec | 31.5 | 7.5 | 0 | 17.5 | 4 |
| 29 Dec | 30.5 | 7.5 | 0 | 16.5 | 4 |
| 5 Jan 2026 | 30.5 | 7.5 | 0 | 17.5 | 7.4 |
| 12 Jan | 27.5 | 7.5 | 0 | 19.5 | 9.4 |
| 19 Jan | 26 | 6.5 | 0 | 18.5 | 9.5 |
| 26 Jan | 26.5 | 6.5 | 0 | 19.5 | 9.2 |
| 2 Feb | 25.5 | 5.5 | 0 | 19.5 | 8.3 |
| 9 Feb | 24.5 | 4.5 | 0 | 18.5 | 7.6 |
| 16 Feb | 24.3 | 5.2 | 1.7 | 17.2 | 8 |
| 23 Feb | 23.3 | 5.8 | 2 | 18.3 | 7.3 |
| 2 Mar | 21.2 | 6.5 | 1.7 | 17.5 | 8.1 |
| 9 Mar | 21.1 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 18.6 | 9.8 |
| 16 Mar | 20.6 | 4.8 | 2.5 | 16.8 | 14.7 |
| 23 Mar | 20.1 | 4.8 | 3.1 | 17.9 | 12.2 |
| 30 Mar | 17.9 | 5.6 | 3.5 | 17.3 | 10.3 |
| 6 Apr | 17.7 | 6 | 3.5 | 17.2 | 10.3 |
| 13 Apr | 18.8 | 5.6 | 4.4 | 16.1 | 9.4 |
| 20 Apr | 19.3 | 7.7 | 3.8 | 16.1 | 11.6 |
| 27 Apr | 18.9 | 6.3 | 3.9 | 18.3 | 10.5 |
| 4 May | 21.1 | 5.7 | 4.6 | 17.3 | 10.2 |
| 11 May | 18.8 | 5.4 | 3.9 | 16.7 | 14.8 |
| 18 May | 18.7 | 5.3 | 3.6 | 16.7 | 13.8 |
| 25 May | 19 | 5.2 | 3.4 | 16.2 | 12.6 |
| 1 Jun | 18.3 | 5.3 | 3.2 | 15.9 | 14.1 |
| 8 Jun | 15.7 | 4.7 | 4.1 | 14.3 | 15.6 |
| 15 Jun | 15.1 | 5.7 | 4.4 | 14.4 | 15.8 |
| 22 Jun | 20.7 | 5.5 | 6 | 15.5 | 15.5 |
| 29 Jun | 19.3 | 5.2 | 5.8 | 12.2 | 13.9 |
| 6 Jul | 20.2 | 7.2 | 7 | 12.2 | 15.8 |
| 13 Jul | 19.9 | 7.5 | 7.1 | 12.2 | 13.9 |
| 20 Jul | 19.9 | 8 | 7.7 | 11.8 | 14 |
| 27 Jul | 20.4 | 8.4 | 8.8 | 12.5 | 12.5 |
| 3 Aug | 20.8 | 9.5 | 9.4 | 11.9 | 12.8 |
| 10 Aug | 21.5 | 9.6 | 9.6 | 9.9 | 12.5 |
| 17 Aug | 23.1 | 13.4 | 9.3 | 8.8 | 13.1 |
| 24 Aug | 23.4 | 14.2 | 9.8 | 8.2 | 10.9 |
| 31 Aug | 25.4 | 10.7 | 11.5 | 8.2 | 10.4 |
| 7 Sep | 24.7 | 13.3 | 11.9 | 7.6 | 9.1 |
| 14 Sep | 24.1 | 13.3 | 11.6 | 8.1 | 11.2 |
| 21 Sep | 20.8 | 13.1 | 11.6 | 8.2 | 8.9 |
| 28 Sep | 20.9 | 13.2 | 11.6 | 7.6 | 8.8 |
| 5 Oct | 20.2 | 13.5 | 10.9 | 7.9 | 9.1 |
| 12 Oct | 19.6 | 13.1 | 10.4 | 9.1 | 7.9 |
| 19 Oct | 20.5 | 13.2 | 10.5 | 9 | 7.9 |
| 26 Oct | 20.1 | 12.7 | 9.5 | 9.5 | 9.1 |
[CSV](https://vultax.com/research/2028-presidential-election-odds-polymarket/data.csv?dataset=winner-race-chart), [JSON](https://vultax.com/research/2028-presidential-election-odds-polymarket/data.json?dataset=winner-race-chart)
## The three markets do not add up
If the markets agreed, a nominee's chance to win would sit near the party's price, give or take what the market thinks of that person. Vance's 52.8% is 18.3 points above the Republican price. Ocasio-Cortez's 77.9% is 13.4 points above the Democratic price, which would make her a stronger nominee than any other Democrat.
There are two ways to read the gap. The market may think Ocasio-Cortez would be a stronger nominee than any other Democrat. Or the winner and nomination markets, which have different traders and settle two years from now, are out of line with each other for some names. The winner market is not priced high across the board: the Yes prices of all 128 names in it add up to 93.1% on 26 October. Read the implied column as a map of where the markets disagree, not as a ranking of candidates.
### Party price and implied chance if nominated
Polymarket, 20:00 UTC on 26 October 2026. Percent.
| Category | Party's price (%) | Implied if nominated (%) |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Vance | 34.5 | 52.8 |
| Ocasio-Cortez | 64.5 | 77.9 |
| Newsom | 64.5 | 74.4 |
| Ossoff | 64.5 | 63.8 |
| Rubio | 34.5 | 51.2 |
[CSV](https://vultax.com/research/2028-presidential-election-odds-polymarket/data.csv?dataset=do-not-add-up-chart), [JSON](https://vultax.com/research/2028-presidential-election-odds-polymarket/data.json?dataset=do-not-add-up-chart)
## The Democratic nomination: from Newsom to a three-way race
Newsom led the Democratic nomination market on 393 of its 464 days and peaked at 39.5% on 6 November 2025. He was 33.5% on 1 January 2026 and is 15.5% now.
Ocasio-Cortez first took the lead on 13 August 2026 and has led on 71 days since, peaking at 22.7%. Ossoff rose from 3.7% on 1 January to 14.7%. On 26 October the three were within 1.9 points, with Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez in front.
### 2028 Democratic nomination price, four names
Polymarket, Monday readings, 21 July 2025 to 26 October 2026. Percent.
| Category | Gavin Newsom (%) | Jon Ossoff (%) | Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (%) | Kamala Harris (%) |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 21 Jul | 20.5 | 3.8 | 16.5 | 4.5 |
| 28 Jul | 20.5 | 3.6 | 15.5 | 4.5 |
| 4 Aug | 19.5 | 3.6 | 15.5 | 5.9 |
| 11 Aug | 18.5 | 3.5 | 14.5 | 5.3 |
| 18 Aug | 18.5 | 3.1 | 12.5 | 4.8 |
| 25 Aug | 30.5 | 3.9 | 12.5 | 5 |
| 1 Sep | 31.5 | 3.7 | 9.5 | 4.7 |
| 8 Sep | 34.5 | 6.4 | 8.5 | 4.6 |
| 15 Sep | 35.5 | 3.8 | 7.5 | 3.8 |
| 22 Sep | 35.5 | 4.2 | 11.5 | 3.9 |
| 29 Sep | 36.5 | 4.1 | 10.5 | 3.8 |
| 6 Oct | 36.5 | 3.5 | 9.5 | 3.1 |
| 13 Oct | 35.5 | 3.7 | 10.5 | 2.8 |
| 20 Oct | 35 | 3.2 | 11.5 | 2.2 |
| 27 Oct | 35.5 | 3.2 | 11.5 | 4.5 |
| 3 Nov | 37.5 | 4.6 | 13.5 | 5.2 |
| 10 Nov | 38.5 | 4.2 | 13.5 | 4.3 |
| 17 Nov | 36.5 | 3.8 | 11.5 | 4.4 |
| 24 Nov | 36.5 | 3.9 | 11.5 | 4.5 |
| 1 Dec | 36.5 | 4.1 | 11.5 | 4.4 |
| 8 Dec | 35.5 | 3.7 | 10.5 | 3.5 |
| 15 Dec | 34.5 | 2.8 | 10.5 | 3.7 |
| 22 Dec | 34.5 | 3.2 | 10.5 | 4.4 |
| 29 Dec | 33.5 | 3.3 | 13 | 4.2 |
| 5 Jan 2026 | 37.5 | 3 | 11 | 3.9 |
| 12 Jan | 34.5 | 3 | 10.5 | 3.8 |
| 19 Jan | 34.5 | 3.3 | 10.5 | 4.1 |
| 26 Jan | 34.5 | 3.9 | 8.5 | 4.3 |
| 2 Feb | 32.5 | 3.4 | 8.5 | 4.9 |
| 9 Feb | 27.5 | 4.7 | 8.5 | 5.6 |
| 16 Feb | 27.7 | 4.7 | 9.4 | 5.2 |
| 23 Feb | 27.7 | 4.5 | 8.5 | 5.9 |
| 2 Mar | 25.3 | 4.2 | 9.1 | 5.7 |
| 9 Mar | 25.4 | 4.7 | 8.7 | 5.4 |
| 16 Mar | 24.6 | 5.7 | 8.5 | 5.5 |
| 23 Mar | 24.9 | 6.8 | 8.3 | 5 |
| 30 Mar | 24.4 | 5.8 | 8.2 | 4.5 |
| 6 Apr | 24.2 | 7 | 7.7 | 4.2 |
| 13 Apr | 27.2 | 5.9 | 8.5 | 5.7 |
| 20 Apr | 27.2 | 6.5 | 8.6 | 5.7 |
| 27 Apr | 25.9 | 5.4 | 8.4 | 8.4 |
| 4 May | 26.7 | 6.6 | 8.3 | 10.5 |
| 11 May | 24.2 | 6.5 | 8.4 | 9.1 |
| 18 May | 24.5 | 6.3 | 8.6 | 8.7 |
| 25 May | 24.1 | 5.8 | 9.1 | 8.8 |
| 1 Jun | 25.4 | 5.4 | 9.1 | 7.9 |
| 8 Jun | 25.2 | 6.6 | 9.2 | 7.8 |
| 15 Jun | 23.8 | 7.8 | 9.4 | 7.4 |
| 22 Jun | 23.3 | 9.4 | 10.1 | 7.2 |
| 29 Jun | 20.6 | 9.5 | 9.4 | 6.4 |
| 6 Jul | 20.1 | 10.5 | 12.4 | 6.8 |
| 13 Jul | 19.8 | 12.1 | 14.7 | 7 |
| 20 Jul | 19.8 | 14.1 | 14.5 | 6.8 |
| 27 Jul | 19.7 | 15.6 | 14.5 | 8.6 |
| 3 Aug | 19.2 | 14 | 14.7 | 8.6 |
| 10 Aug | 18.2 | 16.1 | 15.1 | 7.6 |
| 17 Aug | 17 | 14.8 | 20.5 | 7.5 |
| 24 Aug | 15 | 14.7 | 22.7 | 7.5 |
| 31 Aug | 14.6 | 15.6 | 19.9 | 7.7 |
| 7 Sep | 14.5 | 15.7 | 18.7 | 7.9 |
| 14 Sep | 12.5 | 15.9 | 18.3 | 8.1 |
| 21 Sep | 15.6 | 16.6 | 18.1 | 8.5 |
| 28 Sep | 16.2 | 15.3 | 18.3 | 6.3 |
| 5 Oct | 17.1 | 15.5 | 17 | 6.6 |
| 12 Oct | 15.5 | 15.4 | 17.8 | 6.3 |
| 19 Oct | 17.3 | 14 | 14.8 | 7.2 |
| 26 Oct | 15.2 | 15.6 | 16.7 | 6.6 |
[CSV](https://vultax.com/research/2028-presidential-election-odds-polymarket/data.csv?dataset=democratic-nomination-chart), [JSON](https://vultax.com/research/2028-presidential-election-odds-polymarket/data.json?dataset=democratic-nomination-chart)
## The Republican nomination: Vance on top every day
Vance has led the Republican nomination market on every one of its 464 days. He peaked at 59.5% on 7 November 2025 and is 37.6% now. Rubio, second, peaked at 28.2% on 13 July 2026 and is 18.1%.
## What the 2024 market did after the last midterms
Polymarket's 2024 Republican nominee markets show how much a lead two years out can move. Donald Trump's price was 63.0% on 1 December 2022, a few weeks after the 2022 midterms, and 34.0% on 18 December. Ron DeSantis, at 44.0% that day, was ahead for 18 days in a row, from 18 December 2022 to 4 January 2023, and reached 48.0%.
By 27 January 2023 Trump was back ahead, 47.0% to 35.0%, and he won the nomination. The 2024 markets were single Yes or No markets with thin trading, so they are a rough guide; the point is the size of the swing, not the exact level.
## How to read a 2028 price
The same reading, what a price did before a result, is applied to award and sports markets in our [Ballon d'Or study](https://vultax.com/research/ballon-dor-2026-odds-polymarket).
- A 2028 price is a two-year bet. 19.9% for Vance means the market sees about four chances in five that someone else wins.
- Money in a 2028 market is tied up until it settles in November 2028, so a gap between two markets can last for months.
- The winner, nomination and party markets answer different questions. Dividing the winner price by the nomination price shows where they disagree.
- The 2026 midterms on 3 November are the next scheduled event that can move these prices.
## Method and limits
Prices are Polymarket's Yes prices from its public price-history API: minute values for 26 October 2026 and daily values for everything else. A name leads a market on a day when it has the highest daily price. The weekly charts show a name at zero before its market was listed.
The implied chance if nominated assumes the winner and nomination markets price the same person on the same footing; they are separate markets with separate traders, so treat the column as approximate. The 2024 comparison uses Polymarket's single nominee markets for Trump and DeSantis, which started trading in November and December 2022.
This page reads public prices; it is not a forecast by Vultax, not a statement about any candidate and not advice to trade.
## Questions
### Who is the favourite to win the 2028 presidential election?
JD Vance, at 19.9% on Polymarket at 20:00 UTC on 26 October 2026, ahead of Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at 12.9% and Gavin Newsom at 11.5%.
### Which party is favoured to win in 2028?
Democrats, at 64.5% in Polymarket's party market on 26 October 2026, against 34.5% for Republicans. Democrats were 52.5% on 1 January 2026.
### Who leads the 2028 Democratic nomination odds?
No one clearly. On 26 October 2026 Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez was 16.6%, Gavin Newsom 15.5% and Jon Ossoff 14.7%. Newsom had been 39.5% in November 2025.
### Did Polymarket's early favourite win the 2024 Republican nomination?
Trump was ahead at first, then Ron DeSantis led for 18 days from 18 December 2022, reaching 48.0%. Trump was back ahead by late January 2023 and won the nomination.
## Revision notes
- 2026-10-27: Published before the 2026 midterms, with Polymarket's 2028 prices read at 20:00 UTC on 26 October 2026.
## Sources and methodology
- [Polymarket — Presidential Election Winner 2028](https://polymarket.com/event/presidential-election-winner-2028) — Prices read at 20:00 UTC on 26 October 2026.
- [Polymarket — Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028](https://polymarket.com/event/democratic-presidential-nominee-2028)
- [Polymarket — Republican Presidential Nominee 2028](https://polymarket.com/event/republican-presidential-nominee-2028)
- [Polymarket — Which party wins 2028 US Presidential Election?](https://polymarket.com/event/which-party-wins-2028-us-presidential-election)
- [Polymarket — Republican Nominee 2024 (single markets)](https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-win-the-us-2024-republican-presidential-nomination) — Trump and DeSantis nominee prices from November 2022.
- [Polymarket API — price history](https://docs.polymarket.com/) — Minute and daily Yes prices from the CLOB API. Vultax computed the readings and the implied column.
- [Conditional formula proofs](https://vultax.com/datasets/research-proof-library-2026-10-25/scopes/6a42766b5c037aeceb18598d00daa7a3e3f90077df617c8cba0345941df06511.md) — Conditional formulas only. The proofs cover the conditional mathematical formulas; article-specific measurements and numerical results have not been proved.
- [Per-article scope records and Lean package](https://vultax.com/datasets/research-proof-library-2026-10-25/README.md) — Dated per-article scope records, Lean source, frozen permitted public inputs, checker logs and a reproducible ZIP. Covers only the scope stated in each record, not the whole study.