{
  "schemaVersion": "vultax-public-research-data-v1",
  "articleUrl": "https://vultax.com/research/2028-presidential-election-odds-polymarket",
  "datasets": [
    {
      "title": "2028 presidential election odds on Polymarket",
      "columns": [
        {
          "name": "Candidate",
          "unit": null
        },
        {
          "name": "Party",
          "unit": null
        },
        {
          "name": "Win the presidency",
          "unit": null
        },
        {
          "name": "Win the nomination",
          "unit": null
        },
        {
          "name": "Implied if nominated",
          "unit": null
        }
      ],
      "rows": [
        [
          "JD Vance",
          "Republican",
          "19.9%",
          "37.6%",
          "52.8%"
        ],
        [
          "Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez",
          "Democratic",
          "12.9%",
          "16.6%",
          "77.9%"
        ],
        [
          "Gavin Newsom",
          "Democratic",
          "11.5%",
          "15.5%",
          "74.4%"
        ],
        [
          "Jon Ossoff",
          "Democratic",
          "9.4%",
          "14.7%",
          "63.8%"
        ],
        [
          "Marco Rubio",
          "Republican",
          "9.3%",
          "18.1%",
          "51.2%"
        ],
        [
          "Kamala Harris",
          "Democratic",
          "3.9%",
          "6.4%",
          "60.6%"
        ],
        [
          "Josh Shapiro",
          "Democratic",
          "3.0%",
          "5.0%",
          "59.0%"
        ],
        [
          "Pete Buttigieg",
          "Democratic",
          "2.5%",
          "5.1%",
          "49.5%"
        ]
      ],
      "measurementContext": "Polymarket Yes prices at 20:00 UTC on 26 October 2026: each market's last minute price at or before that time. The last column is the first price divided by the second. Live prices are in the 2028 election odds room.",
      "sources": [
        {
          "label": "Polymarket — Presidential Election Winner 2028",
          "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/presidential-election-winner-2028",
          "note": "Prices read at 20:00 UTC on 26 October 2026."
        },
        {
          "label": "Polymarket — Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028",
          "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/democratic-presidential-nominee-2028",
          "note": null
        },
        {
          "label": "Polymarket — Republican Presidential Nominee 2028",
          "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/republican-presidential-nominee-2028",
          "note": null
        },
        {
          "label": "Polymarket — Which party wins 2028 US Presidential Election?",
          "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/which-party-wins-2028-us-presidential-election",
          "note": null
        },
        {
          "label": "Polymarket — Republican Nominee 2024 (single markets)",
          "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-win-the-us-2024-republican-presidential-nomination",
          "note": "Trump and DeSantis nominee prices from November 2022."
        },
        {
          "label": "Polymarket API — price history",
          "url": "https://docs.polymarket.com/",
          "note": "Minute and daily Yes prices from the CLOB API. Vultax computed the readings and the implied column."
        },
        {
          "label": "Conditional formula proofs",
          "url": "https://vultax.com/datasets/research-proof-library-2026-10-25/scopes/6a42766b5c037aeceb18598d00daa7a3e3f90077df617c8cba0345941df06511.md",
          "note": "Conditional formulas only. The proofs cover the conditional mathematical formulas; article-specific measurements and numerical results have not been proved."
        },
        {
          "label": "Per-article scope records and Lean package",
          "url": "https://vultax.com/datasets/research-proof-library-2026-10-25/README.md",
          "note": "Dated per-article scope records, Lean source, frozen permitted public inputs, checker logs and a reproducible ZIP. Covers only the scope stated in each record, not the whole study."
        }
      ],
      "measurement": {
        "kind": "observed",
        "temporalCoverage": "2026-10-26T20:00Z",
        "population": "Polymarket's Presidential Election Winner 2028, Democratic and Republican Presidential Nominee 2028 markets",
        "methodology": "Last minute Yes price at or before 20:00 UTC from the CLOB price-history API; implied column computed by Vultax."
      },
      "id": "section-2028-presidential-election-odds-on-polymarket-table",
      "kind": "published-table",
      "description": "JD Vance leads Polymarket's 2028 presidential market at 19.9% and Democrats are 64.5% to win the White House. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Gavin Newsom and Jon Ossoff are within two points of each other for the nomination, and the three markets do not add up.",
      "articleUrl": "https://vultax.com/research/2028-presidential-election-odds-polymarket",
      "sectionUrl": "https://vultax.com/research/2028-presidential-election-odds-polymarket#section-2028-presidential-election-odds-on-polymarket",
      "publishedAt": "2026-10-27",
      "modifiedAt": "2026-10-27",
      "version": "470edf3c84bb38058bb26780883ca355b8f07d2e346d5da2cac5d998e3309656",
      "isLive": false,
      "limitations": "Published research snapshots and calculations; these exports do not contain current quotes or live account data. Observation windows and populations are stated in the source captions and methodology. Missing metadata is unknown, not zero. A reading of public market prices at the stated times, not a forecast by Vultax, not a statement about any candidate and not advice to trade.",
      "downloads": {
        "json": "https://vultax.com/research/2028-presidential-election-odds-polymarket/data.json?dataset=section-2028-presidential-election-odds-on-polymarket-table",
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      }
    },
    {
      "title": "2028 presidential winner price, five names",
      "columns": [
        {
          "name": "Category",
          "unit": null
        },
        {
          "name": "JD Vance",
          "unit": "%"
        },
        {
          "name": "Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez",
          "unit": "%"
        },
        {
          "name": "Jon Ossoff",
          "unit": "%"
        },
        {
          "name": "Gavin Newsom",
          "unit": "%"
        },
        {
          "name": "Marco Rubio",
          "unit": "%"
        }
      ],
      "rows": [
        [
          "21 Jul",
          26.5,
          9.5,
          0,
          13.5,
          5.5
        ],
        [
          "28 Jul",
          27.5,
          10.5,
          0,
          13.5,
          4.5
        ],
        [
          "4 Aug",
          27.5,
          8.5,
          0,
          13.5,
          5.5
        ],
        [
          "11 Aug",
          26.5,
          8.5,
          0,
          12.5,
          5.5
        ],
        [
          "18 Aug",
          27.5,
          8.5,
          0,
          14.5,
          5.5
        ],
        [
          "25 Aug",
          26.5,
          8.5,
          0,
          18.5,
          4.5
        ],
        [
          "1 Sep",
          27.5,
          7.5,
          0,
          18.5,
          4.5
        ],
        [
          "8 Sep",
          27.5,
          6.5,
          0,
          22.5,
          4.5
        ],
        [
          "15 Sep",
          26.5,
          4.5,
          0,
          21.5,
          4.5
        ],
        [
          "22 Sep",
          26.5,
          6.5,
          0,
          20.5,
          4.5
        ],
        [
          "29 Sep",
          27.5,
          6.5,
          0,
          21.5,
          4.5
        ],
        [
          "6 Oct",
          28.5,
          6.5,
          0,
          21.5,
          4.5
        ],
        [
          "13 Oct",
          27.5,
          6.5,
          0,
          22.5,
          3.2
        ],
        [
          "20 Oct",
          28.5,
          6,
          0,
          22.5,
          2.7
        ],
        [
          "27 Oct",
          28.5,
          7.5,
          0,
          21.5,
          2.7
        ],
        [
          "3 Nov",
          28.5,
          8.5,
          0,
          20.5,
          4.7
        ],
        [
          "10 Nov",
          28.5,
          8.5,
          0,
          19.5,
          3.7
        ],
        [
          "17 Nov",
          28.5,
          8.5,
          0,
          18.5,
          3.4
        ],
        [
          "24 Nov",
          28.5,
          8.5,
          0,
          18.5,
          3.5
        ],
        [
          "1 Dec",
          28.5,
          8.5,
          0,
          17.5,
          3.7
        ],
        [
          "8 Dec",
          29.5,
          7.5,
          0,
          17.5,
          3.8
        ],
        [
          "15 Dec",
          30,
          7.5,
          0,
          17.5,
          3.9
        ],
        [
          "22 Dec",
          31.5,
          7.5,
          0,
          17.5,
          4
        ],
        [
          "29 Dec",
          30.5,
          7.5,
          0,
          16.5,
          4
        ],
        [
          "5 Jan 2026",
          30.5,
          7.5,
          0,
          17.5,
          7.4
        ],
        [
          "12 Jan",
          27.5,
          7.5,
          0,
          19.5,
          9.4
        ],
        [
          "19 Jan",
          26,
          6.5,
          0,
          18.5,
          9.5
        ],
        [
          "26 Jan",
          26.5,
          6.5,
          0,
          19.5,
          9.2
        ],
        [
          "2 Feb",
          25.5,
          5.5,
          0,
          19.5,
          8.3
        ],
        [
          "9 Feb",
          24.5,
          4.5,
          0,
          18.5,
          7.6
        ],
        [
          "16 Feb",
          24.3,
          5.2,
          1.7,
          17.2,
          8
        ],
        [
          "23 Feb",
          23.3,
          5.8,
          2,
          18.3,
          7.3
        ],
        [
          "2 Mar",
          21.2,
          6.5,
          1.7,
          17.5,
          8.1
        ],
        [
          "9 Mar",
          21.1,
          5.9,
          2.4,
          18.6,
          9.8
        ],
        [
          "16 Mar",
          20.6,
          4.8,
          2.5,
          16.8,
          14.7
        ],
        [
          "23 Mar",
          20.1,
          4.8,
          3.1,
          17.9,
          12.2
        ],
        [
          "30 Mar",
          17.9,
          5.6,
          3.5,
          17.3,
          10.3
        ],
        [
          "6 Apr",
          17.7,
          6,
          3.5,
          17.2,
          10.3
        ],
        [
          "13 Apr",
          18.8,
          5.6,
          4.4,
          16.1,
          9.4
        ],
        [
          "20 Apr",
          19.3,
          7.7,
          3.8,
          16.1,
          11.6
        ],
        [
          "27 Apr",
          18.9,
          6.3,
          3.9,
          18.3,
          10.5
        ],
        [
          "4 May",
          21.1,
          5.7,
          4.6,
          17.3,
          10.2
        ],
        [
          "11 May",
          18.8,
          5.4,
          3.9,
          16.7,
          14.8
        ],
        [
          "18 May",
          18.7,
          5.3,
          3.6,
          16.7,
          13.8
        ],
        [
          "25 May",
          19,
          5.2,
          3.4,
          16.2,
          12.6
        ],
        [
          "1 Jun",
          18.3,
          5.3,
          3.2,
          15.9,
          14.1
        ],
        [
          "8 Jun",
          15.7,
          4.7,
          4.1,
          14.3,
          15.6
        ],
        [
          "15 Jun",
          15.1,
          5.7,
          4.4,
          14.4,
          15.8
        ],
        [
          "22 Jun",
          20.7,
          5.5,
          6,
          15.5,
          15.5
        ],
        [
          "29 Jun",
          19.3,
          5.2,
          5.8,
          12.2,
          13.9
        ],
        [
          "6 Jul",
          20.2,
          7.2,
          7,
          12.2,
          15.8
        ],
        [
          "13 Jul",
          19.9,
          7.5,
          7.1,
          12.2,
          13.9
        ],
        [
          "20 Jul",
          19.9,
          8,
          7.7,
          11.8,
          14
        ],
        [
          "27 Jul",
          20.4,
          8.4,
          8.8,
          12.5,
          12.5
        ],
        [
          "3 Aug",
          20.8,
          9.5,
          9.4,
          11.9,
          12.8
        ],
        [
          "10 Aug",
          21.5,
          9.6,
          9.6,
          9.9,
          12.5
        ],
        [
          "17 Aug",
          23.1,
          13.4,
          9.3,
          8.8,
          13.1
        ],
        [
          "24 Aug",
          23.4,
          14.2,
          9.8,
          8.2,
          10.9
        ],
        [
          "31 Aug",
          25.4,
          10.7,
          11.5,
          8.2,
          10.4
        ],
        [
          "7 Sep",
          24.7,
          13.3,
          11.9,
          7.6,
          9.1
        ],
        [
          "14 Sep",
          24.1,
          13.3,
          11.6,
          8.1,
          11.2
        ],
        [
          "21 Sep",
          20.8,
          13.1,
          11.6,
          8.2,
          8.9
        ],
        [
          "28 Sep",
          20.9,
          13.2,
          11.6,
          7.6,
          8.8
        ],
        [
          "5 Oct",
          20.2,
          13.5,
          10.9,
          7.9,
          9.1
        ],
        [
          "12 Oct",
          19.6,
          13.1,
          10.4,
          9.1,
          7.9
        ],
        [
          "19 Oct",
          20.5,
          13.2,
          10.5,
          9,
          7.9
        ],
        [
          "26 Oct",
          20.1,
          12.7,
          9.5,
          9.5,
          9.1
        ]
      ],
      "measurementContext": "Polymarket, Monday readings, 21 July 2025 to 26 October 2026. Percent.",
      "sources": [
        {
          "label": "Polymarket — Presidential Election Winner 2028",
          "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/presidential-election-winner-2028",
          "note": "Prices read at 20:00 UTC on 26 October 2026."
        },
        {
          "label": "Polymarket — Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028",
          "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/democratic-presidential-nominee-2028",
          "note": null
        },
        {
          "label": "Polymarket — Republican Presidential Nominee 2028",
          "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/republican-presidential-nominee-2028",
          "note": null
        },
        {
          "label": "Polymarket — Which party wins 2028 US Presidential Election?",
          "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/which-party-wins-2028-us-presidential-election",
          "note": null
        },
        {
          "label": "Polymarket — Republican Nominee 2024 (single markets)",
          "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-win-the-us-2024-republican-presidential-nomination",
          "note": "Trump and DeSantis nominee prices from November 2022."
        },
        {
          "label": "Polymarket API — price history",
          "url": "https://docs.polymarket.com/",
          "note": "Minute and daily Yes prices from the CLOB API. Vultax computed the readings and the implied column."
        },
        {
          "label": "Conditional formula proofs",
          "url": "https://vultax.com/datasets/research-proof-library-2026-10-25/scopes/6a42766b5c037aeceb18598d00daa7a3e3f90077df617c8cba0345941df06511.md",
          "note": "Conditional formulas only. The proofs cover the conditional mathematical formulas; article-specific measurements and numerical results have not been proved."
        },
        {
          "label": "Per-article scope records and Lean package",
          "url": "https://vultax.com/datasets/research-proof-library-2026-10-25/README.md",
          "note": "Dated per-article scope records, Lean source, frozen permitted public inputs, checker logs and a reproducible ZIP. Covers only the scope stated in each record, not the whole study."
        }
      ],
      "measurement": {
        "kind": "observed",
        "temporalCoverage": "2025-07-21/2026-10-26",
        "population": "Yes prices of five names in Polymarket's Presidential Election Winner 2028",
        "methodology": "Daily price-history values, the first reading on each Monday; zero before a name was listed."
      },
      "id": "winner-race-chart",
      "kind": "published-chart",
      "description": "JD Vance leads Polymarket's 2028 presidential market at 19.9% and Democrats are 64.5% to win the White House. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Gavin Newsom and Jon Ossoff are within two points of each other for the nomination, and the three markets do not add up.",
      "articleUrl": "https://vultax.com/research/2028-presidential-election-odds-polymarket",
      "sectionUrl": "https://vultax.com/research/2028-presidential-election-odds-polymarket#winner-race",
      "publishedAt": "2026-10-27",
      "modifiedAt": "2026-10-27",
      "version": "fe6f8b56b1b46610215e176484da7beb8b8e9fabd8578d9bf8982c3a833a5267",
      "isLive": false,
      "limitations": "Published research snapshots and calculations; these exports do not contain current quotes or live account data. Observation windows and populations are stated in the source captions and methodology. Missing metadata is unknown, not zero. A reading of public market prices at the stated times, not a forecast by Vultax, not a statement about any candidate and not advice to trade.",
      "downloads": {
        "json": "https://vultax.com/research/2028-presidential-election-odds-polymarket/data.json?dataset=winner-race-chart",
        "csv": "https://vultax.com/research/2028-presidential-election-odds-polymarket/data.csv?dataset=winner-race-chart"
      }
    },
    {
      "title": "Party price and implied chance if nominated",
      "columns": [
        {
          "name": "Category",
          "unit": null
        },
        {
          "name": "Party's price",
          "unit": "%"
        },
        {
          "name": "Implied if nominated",
          "unit": "%"
        }
      ],
      "rows": [
        [
          "Vance",
          34.5,
          52.8
        ],
        [
          "Ocasio-Cortez",
          64.5,
          77.9
        ],
        [
          "Newsom",
          64.5,
          74.4
        ],
        [
          "Ossoff",
          64.5,
          63.8
        ],
        [
          "Rubio",
          34.5,
          51.2
        ]
      ],
      "measurementContext": "Polymarket, 20:00 UTC on 26 October 2026. Percent.",
      "sources": [
        {
          "label": "Polymarket — Presidential Election Winner 2028",
          "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/presidential-election-winner-2028",
          "note": "Prices read at 20:00 UTC on 26 October 2026."
        },
        {
          "label": "Polymarket — Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028",
          "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/democratic-presidential-nominee-2028",
          "note": null
        },
        {
          "label": "Polymarket — Republican Presidential Nominee 2028",
          "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/republican-presidential-nominee-2028",
          "note": null
        },
        {
          "label": "Polymarket — Which party wins 2028 US Presidential Election?",
          "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/which-party-wins-2028-us-presidential-election",
          "note": null
        },
        {
          "label": "Polymarket — Republican Nominee 2024 (single markets)",
          "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-win-the-us-2024-republican-presidential-nomination",
          "note": "Trump and DeSantis nominee prices from November 2022."
        },
        {
          "label": "Polymarket API — price history",
          "url": "https://docs.polymarket.com/",
          "note": "Minute and daily Yes prices from the CLOB API. Vultax computed the readings and the implied column."
        },
        {
          "label": "Conditional formula proofs",
          "url": "https://vultax.com/datasets/research-proof-library-2026-10-25/scopes/6a42766b5c037aeceb18598d00daa7a3e3f90077df617c8cba0345941df06511.md",
          "note": "Conditional formulas only. The proofs cover the conditional mathematical formulas; article-specific measurements and numerical results have not been proved."
        },
        {
          "label": "Per-article scope records and Lean package",
          "url": "https://vultax.com/datasets/research-proof-library-2026-10-25/README.md",
          "note": "Dated per-article scope records, Lean source, frozen permitted public inputs, checker logs and a reproducible ZIP. Covers only the scope stated in each record, not the whole study."
        }
      ],
      "measurement": {
        "kind": "observed",
        "temporalCoverage": "2026-10-26T20:00Z",
        "population": "Five 2028 candidates in the winner, nomination and party markets",
        "methodology": "Implied if nominated is the winner price divided by the nomination price; party price from the party market."
      },
      "id": "do-not-add-up-chart",
      "kind": "published-chart",
      "description": "JD Vance leads Polymarket's 2028 presidential market at 19.9% and Democrats are 64.5% to win the White House. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Gavin Newsom and Jon Ossoff are within two points of each other for the nomination, and the three markets do not add up.",
      "articleUrl": "https://vultax.com/research/2028-presidential-election-odds-polymarket",
      "sectionUrl": "https://vultax.com/research/2028-presidential-election-odds-polymarket#do-not-add-up",
      "publishedAt": "2026-10-27",
      "modifiedAt": "2026-10-27",
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      "isLive": false,
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      "downloads": {
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        "csv": "https://vultax.com/research/2028-presidential-election-odds-polymarket/data.csv?dataset=do-not-add-up-chart"
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    },
    {
      "title": "2028 Democratic nomination price, four names",
      "columns": [
        {
          "name": "Category",
          "unit": null
        },
        {
          "name": "Gavin Newsom",
          "unit": "%"
        },
        {
          "name": "Jon Ossoff",
          "unit": "%"
        },
        {
          "name": "Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez",
          "unit": "%"
        },
        {
          "name": "Kamala Harris",
          "unit": "%"
        }
      ],
      "rows": [
        [
          "21 Jul",
          20.5,
          3.8,
          16.5,
          4.5
        ],
        [
          "28 Jul",
          20.5,
          3.6,
          15.5,
          4.5
        ],
        [
          "4 Aug",
          19.5,
          3.6,
          15.5,
          5.9
        ],
        [
          "11 Aug",
          18.5,
          3.5,
          14.5,
          5.3
        ],
        [
          "18 Aug",
          18.5,
          3.1,
          12.5,
          4.8
        ],
        [
          "25 Aug",
          30.5,
          3.9,
          12.5,
          5
        ],
        [
          "1 Sep",
          31.5,
          3.7,
          9.5,
          4.7
        ],
        [
          "8 Sep",
          34.5,
          6.4,
          8.5,
          4.6
        ],
        [
          "15 Sep",
          35.5,
          3.8,
          7.5,
          3.8
        ],
        [
          "22 Sep",
          35.5,
          4.2,
          11.5,
          3.9
        ],
        [
          "29 Sep",
          36.5,
          4.1,
          10.5,
          3.8
        ],
        [
          "6 Oct",
          36.5,
          3.5,
          9.5,
          3.1
        ],
        [
          "13 Oct",
          35.5,
          3.7,
          10.5,
          2.8
        ],
        [
          "20 Oct",
          35,
          3.2,
          11.5,
          2.2
        ],
        [
          "27 Oct",
          35.5,
          3.2,
          11.5,
          4.5
        ],
        [
          "3 Nov",
          37.5,
          4.6,
          13.5,
          5.2
        ],
        [
          "10 Nov",
          38.5,
          4.2,
          13.5,
          4.3
        ],
        [
          "17 Nov",
          36.5,
          3.8,
          11.5,
          4.4
        ],
        [
          "24 Nov",
          36.5,
          3.9,
          11.5,
          4.5
        ],
        [
          "1 Dec",
          36.5,
          4.1,
          11.5,
          4.4
        ],
        [
          "8 Dec",
          35.5,
          3.7,
          10.5,
          3.5
        ],
        [
          "15 Dec",
          34.5,
          2.8,
          10.5,
          3.7
        ],
        [
          "22 Dec",
          34.5,
          3.2,
          10.5,
          4.4
        ],
        [
          "29 Dec",
          33.5,
          3.3,
          13,
          4.2
        ],
        [
          "5 Jan 2026",
          37.5,
          3,
          11,
          3.9
        ],
        [
          "12 Jan",
          34.5,
          3,
          10.5,
          3.8
        ],
        [
          "19 Jan",
          34.5,
          3.3,
          10.5,
          4.1
        ],
        [
          "26 Jan",
          34.5,
          3.9,
          8.5,
          4.3
        ],
        [
          "2 Feb",
          32.5,
          3.4,
          8.5,
          4.9
        ],
        [
          "9 Feb",
          27.5,
          4.7,
          8.5,
          5.6
        ],
        [
          "16 Feb",
          27.7,
          4.7,
          9.4,
          5.2
        ],
        [
          "23 Feb",
          27.7,
          4.5,
          8.5,
          5.9
        ],
        [
          "2 Mar",
          25.3,
          4.2,
          9.1,
          5.7
        ],
        [
          "9 Mar",
          25.4,
          4.7,
          8.7,
          5.4
        ],
        [
          "16 Mar",
          24.6,
          5.7,
          8.5,
          5.5
        ],
        [
          "23 Mar",
          24.9,
          6.8,
          8.3,
          5
        ],
        [
          "30 Mar",
          24.4,
          5.8,
          8.2,
          4.5
        ],
        [
          "6 Apr",
          24.2,
          7,
          7.7,
          4.2
        ],
        [
          "13 Apr",
          27.2,
          5.9,
          8.5,
          5.7
        ],
        [
          "20 Apr",
          27.2,
          6.5,
          8.6,
          5.7
        ],
        [
          "27 Apr",
          25.9,
          5.4,
          8.4,
          8.4
        ],
        [
          "4 May",
          26.7,
          6.6,
          8.3,
          10.5
        ],
        [
          "11 May",
          24.2,
          6.5,
          8.4,
          9.1
        ],
        [
          "18 May",
          24.5,
          6.3,
          8.6,
          8.7
        ],
        [
          "25 May",
          24.1,
          5.8,
          9.1,
          8.8
        ],
        [
          "1 Jun",
          25.4,
          5.4,
          9.1,
          7.9
        ],
        [
          "8 Jun",
          25.2,
          6.6,
          9.2,
          7.8
        ],
        [
          "15 Jun",
          23.8,
          7.8,
          9.4,
          7.4
        ],
        [
          "22 Jun",
          23.3,
          9.4,
          10.1,
          7.2
        ],
        [
          "29 Jun",
          20.6,
          9.5,
          9.4,
          6.4
        ],
        [
          "6 Jul",
          20.1,
          10.5,
          12.4,
          6.8
        ],
        [
          "13 Jul",
          19.8,
          12.1,
          14.7,
          7
        ],
        [
          "20 Jul",
          19.8,
          14.1,
          14.5,
          6.8
        ],
        [
          "27 Jul",
          19.7,
          15.6,
          14.5,
          8.6
        ],
        [
          "3 Aug",
          19.2,
          14,
          14.7,
          8.6
        ],
        [
          "10 Aug",
          18.2,
          16.1,
          15.1,
          7.6
        ],
        [
          "17 Aug",
          17,
          14.8,
          20.5,
          7.5
        ],
        [
          "24 Aug",
          15,
          14.7,
          22.7,
          7.5
        ],
        [
          "31 Aug",
          14.6,
          15.6,
          19.9,
          7.7
        ],
        [
          "7 Sep",
          14.5,
          15.7,
          18.7,
          7.9
        ],
        [
          "14 Sep",
          12.5,
          15.9,
          18.3,
          8.1
        ],
        [
          "21 Sep",
          15.6,
          16.6,
          18.1,
          8.5
        ],
        [
          "28 Sep",
          16.2,
          15.3,
          18.3,
          6.3
        ],
        [
          "5 Oct",
          17.1,
          15.5,
          17,
          6.6
        ],
        [
          "12 Oct",
          15.5,
          15.4,
          17.8,
          6.3
        ],
        [
          "19 Oct",
          17.3,
          14,
          14.8,
          7.2
        ],
        [
          "26 Oct",
          15.2,
          15.6,
          16.7,
          6.6
        ]
      ],
      "measurementContext": "Polymarket, Monday readings, 21 July 2025 to 26 October 2026. Percent.",
      "sources": [
        {
          "label": "Polymarket — Presidential Election Winner 2028",
          "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/presidential-election-winner-2028",
          "note": "Prices read at 20:00 UTC on 26 October 2026."
        },
        {
          "label": "Polymarket — Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028",
          "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/democratic-presidential-nominee-2028",
          "note": null
        },
        {
          "label": "Polymarket — Republican Presidential Nominee 2028",
          "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/republican-presidential-nominee-2028",
          "note": null
        },
        {
          "label": "Polymarket — Which party wins 2028 US Presidential Election?",
          "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/which-party-wins-2028-us-presidential-election",
          "note": null
        },
        {
          "label": "Polymarket — Republican Nominee 2024 (single markets)",
          "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-win-the-us-2024-republican-presidential-nomination",
          "note": "Trump and DeSantis nominee prices from November 2022."
        },
        {
          "label": "Polymarket API — price history",
          "url": "https://docs.polymarket.com/",
          "note": "Minute and daily Yes prices from the CLOB API. Vultax computed the readings and the implied column."
        },
        {
          "label": "Conditional formula proofs",
          "url": "https://vultax.com/datasets/research-proof-library-2026-10-25/scopes/6a42766b5c037aeceb18598d00daa7a3e3f90077df617c8cba0345941df06511.md",
          "note": "Conditional formulas only. The proofs cover the conditional mathematical formulas; article-specific measurements and numerical results have not been proved."
        },
        {
          "label": "Per-article scope records and Lean package",
          "url": "https://vultax.com/datasets/research-proof-library-2026-10-25/README.md",
          "note": "Dated per-article scope records, Lean source, frozen permitted public inputs, checker logs and a reproducible ZIP. Covers only the scope stated in each record, not the whole study."
        }
      ],
      "measurement": {
        "kind": "observed",
        "temporalCoverage": "2025-07-21/2026-10-26",
        "population": "Yes prices of four names in Polymarket's Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028",
        "methodology": "Daily price-history values, the first reading on each Monday."
      },
      "id": "democratic-nomination-chart",
      "kind": "published-chart",
      "description": "JD Vance leads Polymarket's 2028 presidential market at 19.9% and Democrats are 64.5% to win the White House. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Gavin Newsom and Jon Ossoff are within two points of each other for the nomination, and the three markets do not add up.",
      "articleUrl": "https://vultax.com/research/2028-presidential-election-odds-polymarket",
      "sectionUrl": "https://vultax.com/research/2028-presidential-election-odds-polymarket#democratic-nomination",
      "publishedAt": "2026-10-27",
      "modifiedAt": "2026-10-27",
      "version": "9d9408dea22c60b675bd5ca89b025c2d015891952b73bd73bc8adb068e3efdca",
      "isLive": false,
      "limitations": "Published research snapshots and calculations; these exports do not contain current quotes or live account data. Observation windows and populations are stated in the source captions and methodology. Missing metadata is unknown, not zero. A reading of public market prices at the stated times, not a forecast by Vultax, not a statement about any candidate and not advice to trade.",
      "downloads": {
        "json": "https://vultax.com/research/2028-presidential-election-odds-polymarket/data.json?dataset=democratic-nomination-chart",
        "csv": "https://vultax.com/research/2028-presidential-election-odds-polymarket/data.csv?dataset=democratic-nomination-chart"
      }
    }
  ]
}