{
  "schemaVersion": "vultax-public-research-data-v1",
  "articleUrl": "https://vultax.com/research/2028-presidential-election-odds-polymarket",
  "datasets": [
    {
      "title": "Party price and implied chance if nominated",
      "columns": [
        {
          "name": "Category",
          "unit": null
        },
        {
          "name": "Party's price",
          "unit": "%"
        },
        {
          "name": "Implied if nominated",
          "unit": "%"
        }
      ],
      "rows": [
        [
          "Vance",
          34.5,
          52.8
        ],
        [
          "Ocasio-Cortez",
          64.5,
          77.9
        ],
        [
          "Newsom",
          64.5,
          74.4
        ],
        [
          "Ossoff",
          64.5,
          63.8
        ],
        [
          "Rubio",
          34.5,
          51.2
        ]
      ],
      "measurementContext": "Polymarket, 20:00 UTC on 26 October 2026. Percent.",
      "sources": [
        {
          "label": "Polymarket — Presidential Election Winner 2028",
          "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/presidential-election-winner-2028",
          "note": "Prices read at 20:00 UTC on 26 October 2026."
        },
        {
          "label": "Polymarket — Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028",
          "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/democratic-presidential-nominee-2028",
          "note": null
        },
        {
          "label": "Polymarket — Republican Presidential Nominee 2028",
          "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/republican-presidential-nominee-2028",
          "note": null
        },
        {
          "label": "Polymarket — Which party wins 2028 US Presidential Election?",
          "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/which-party-wins-2028-us-presidential-election",
          "note": null
        },
        {
          "label": "Polymarket — Republican Nominee 2024 (single markets)",
          "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-win-the-us-2024-republican-presidential-nomination",
          "note": "Trump and DeSantis nominee prices from November 2022."
        },
        {
          "label": "Polymarket API — price history",
          "url": "https://docs.polymarket.com/",
          "note": "Minute and daily Yes prices from the CLOB API. Vultax computed the readings and the implied column."
        },
        {
          "label": "Conditional formula proofs",
          "url": "https://vultax.com/datasets/research-proof-library-2026-10-25/scopes/6a42766b5c037aeceb18598d00daa7a3e3f90077df617c8cba0345941df06511.md",
          "note": "Conditional formulas only. The proofs cover the conditional mathematical formulas; article-specific measurements and numerical results have not been proved."
        },
        {
          "label": "Per-article scope records and Lean package",
          "url": "https://vultax.com/datasets/research-proof-library-2026-10-25/README.md",
          "note": "Dated per-article scope records, Lean source, frozen permitted public inputs, checker logs and a reproducible ZIP. Covers only the scope stated in each record, not the whole study."
        }
      ],
      "measurement": {
        "kind": "observed",
        "temporalCoverage": "2026-10-26T20:00Z",
        "population": "Five 2028 candidates in the winner, nomination and party markets",
        "methodology": "Implied if nominated is the winner price divided by the nomination price; party price from the party market."
      },
      "id": "do-not-add-up-chart",
      "kind": "published-chart",
      "description": "JD Vance leads Polymarket's 2028 presidential market at 19.9% and Democrats are 64.5% to win the White House. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Gavin Newsom and Jon Ossoff are within two points of each other for the nomination, and the three markets do not add up.",
      "articleUrl": "https://vultax.com/research/2028-presidential-election-odds-polymarket",
      "sectionUrl": "https://vultax.com/research/2028-presidential-election-odds-polymarket#do-not-add-up",
      "publishedAt": "2026-10-27",
      "modifiedAt": "2026-10-27",
      "version": "3b03c347d9541615b1c0493667609db9e73fc12be323988ceb0ec5f4f97fb1e7",
      "isLive": false,
      "limitations": "Published research snapshots and calculations; these exports do not contain current quotes or live account data. Observation windows and populations are stated in the source captions and methodology. Missing metadata is unknown, not zero. A reading of public market prices at the stated times, not a forecast by Vultax, not a statement about any candidate and not advice to trade.",
      "downloads": {
        "json": "https://vultax.com/research/2028-presidential-election-odds-polymarket/data.json?dataset=do-not-add-up-chart",
        "csv": "https://vultax.com/research/2028-presidential-election-odds-polymarket/data.csv?dataset=do-not-add-up-chart"
      }
    }
  ]
}