{
  "schemaVersion": "vultax-public-research-data-v1",
  "articleUrl": "https://vultax.com/research/2028-presidential-election-odds-polymarket",
  "datasets": [
    {
      "title": "2028 presidential winner price, five names",
      "columns": [
        {
          "name": "Category",
          "unit": null
        },
        {
          "name": "JD Vance",
          "unit": "%"
        },
        {
          "name": "Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez",
          "unit": "%"
        },
        {
          "name": "Jon Ossoff",
          "unit": "%"
        },
        {
          "name": "Gavin Newsom",
          "unit": "%"
        },
        {
          "name": "Marco Rubio",
          "unit": "%"
        }
      ],
      "rows": [
        [
          "21 Jul",
          26.5,
          9.5,
          0,
          13.5,
          5.5
        ],
        [
          "28 Jul",
          27.5,
          10.5,
          0,
          13.5,
          4.5
        ],
        [
          "4 Aug",
          27.5,
          8.5,
          0,
          13.5,
          5.5
        ],
        [
          "11 Aug",
          26.5,
          8.5,
          0,
          12.5,
          5.5
        ],
        [
          "18 Aug",
          27.5,
          8.5,
          0,
          14.5,
          5.5
        ],
        [
          "25 Aug",
          26.5,
          8.5,
          0,
          18.5,
          4.5
        ],
        [
          "1 Sep",
          27.5,
          7.5,
          0,
          18.5,
          4.5
        ],
        [
          "8 Sep",
          27.5,
          6.5,
          0,
          22.5,
          4.5
        ],
        [
          "15 Sep",
          26.5,
          4.5,
          0,
          21.5,
          4.5
        ],
        [
          "22 Sep",
          26.5,
          6.5,
          0,
          20.5,
          4.5
        ],
        [
          "29 Sep",
          27.5,
          6.5,
          0,
          21.5,
          4.5
        ],
        [
          "6 Oct",
          28.5,
          6.5,
          0,
          21.5,
          4.5
        ],
        [
          "13 Oct",
          27.5,
          6.5,
          0,
          22.5,
          3.2
        ],
        [
          "20 Oct",
          28.5,
          6,
          0,
          22.5,
          2.7
        ],
        [
          "27 Oct",
          28.5,
          7.5,
          0,
          21.5,
          2.7
        ],
        [
          "3 Nov",
          28.5,
          8.5,
          0,
          20.5,
          4.7
        ],
        [
          "10 Nov",
          28.5,
          8.5,
          0,
          19.5,
          3.7
        ],
        [
          "17 Nov",
          28.5,
          8.5,
          0,
          18.5,
          3.4
        ],
        [
          "24 Nov",
          28.5,
          8.5,
          0,
          18.5,
          3.5
        ],
        [
          "1 Dec",
          28.5,
          8.5,
          0,
          17.5,
          3.7
        ],
        [
          "8 Dec",
          29.5,
          7.5,
          0,
          17.5,
          3.8
        ],
        [
          "15 Dec",
          30,
          7.5,
          0,
          17.5,
          3.9
        ],
        [
          "22 Dec",
          31.5,
          7.5,
          0,
          17.5,
          4
        ],
        [
          "29 Dec",
          30.5,
          7.5,
          0,
          16.5,
          4
        ],
        [
          "5 Jan 2026",
          30.5,
          7.5,
          0,
          17.5,
          7.4
        ],
        [
          "12 Jan",
          27.5,
          7.5,
          0,
          19.5,
          9.4
        ],
        [
          "19 Jan",
          26,
          6.5,
          0,
          18.5,
          9.5
        ],
        [
          "26 Jan",
          26.5,
          6.5,
          0,
          19.5,
          9.2
        ],
        [
          "2 Feb",
          25.5,
          5.5,
          0,
          19.5,
          8.3
        ],
        [
          "9 Feb",
          24.5,
          4.5,
          0,
          18.5,
          7.6
        ],
        [
          "16 Feb",
          24.3,
          5.2,
          1.7,
          17.2,
          8
        ],
        [
          "23 Feb",
          23.3,
          5.8,
          2,
          18.3,
          7.3
        ],
        [
          "2 Mar",
          21.2,
          6.5,
          1.7,
          17.5,
          8.1
        ],
        [
          "9 Mar",
          21.1,
          5.9,
          2.4,
          18.6,
          9.8
        ],
        [
          "16 Mar",
          20.6,
          4.8,
          2.5,
          16.8,
          14.7
        ],
        [
          "23 Mar",
          20.1,
          4.8,
          3.1,
          17.9,
          12.2
        ],
        [
          "30 Mar",
          17.9,
          5.6,
          3.5,
          17.3,
          10.3
        ],
        [
          "6 Apr",
          17.7,
          6,
          3.5,
          17.2,
          10.3
        ],
        [
          "13 Apr",
          18.8,
          5.6,
          4.4,
          16.1,
          9.4
        ],
        [
          "20 Apr",
          19.3,
          7.7,
          3.8,
          16.1,
          11.6
        ],
        [
          "27 Apr",
          18.9,
          6.3,
          3.9,
          18.3,
          10.5
        ],
        [
          "4 May",
          21.1,
          5.7,
          4.6,
          17.3,
          10.2
        ],
        [
          "11 May",
          18.8,
          5.4,
          3.9,
          16.7,
          14.8
        ],
        [
          "18 May",
          18.7,
          5.3,
          3.6,
          16.7,
          13.8
        ],
        [
          "25 May",
          19,
          5.2,
          3.4,
          16.2,
          12.6
        ],
        [
          "1 Jun",
          18.3,
          5.3,
          3.2,
          15.9,
          14.1
        ],
        [
          "8 Jun",
          15.7,
          4.7,
          4.1,
          14.3,
          15.6
        ],
        [
          "15 Jun",
          15.1,
          5.7,
          4.4,
          14.4,
          15.8
        ],
        [
          "22 Jun",
          20.7,
          5.5,
          6,
          15.5,
          15.5
        ],
        [
          "29 Jun",
          19.3,
          5.2,
          5.8,
          12.2,
          13.9
        ],
        [
          "6 Jul",
          20.2,
          7.2,
          7,
          12.2,
          15.8
        ],
        [
          "13 Jul",
          19.9,
          7.5,
          7.1,
          12.2,
          13.9
        ],
        [
          "20 Jul",
          19.9,
          8,
          7.7,
          11.8,
          14
        ],
        [
          "27 Jul",
          20.4,
          8.4,
          8.8,
          12.5,
          12.5
        ],
        [
          "3 Aug",
          20.8,
          9.5,
          9.4,
          11.9,
          12.8
        ],
        [
          "10 Aug",
          21.5,
          9.6,
          9.6,
          9.9,
          12.5
        ],
        [
          "17 Aug",
          23.1,
          13.4,
          9.3,
          8.8,
          13.1
        ],
        [
          "24 Aug",
          23.4,
          14.2,
          9.8,
          8.2,
          10.9
        ],
        [
          "31 Aug",
          25.4,
          10.7,
          11.5,
          8.2,
          10.4
        ],
        [
          "7 Sep",
          24.7,
          13.3,
          11.9,
          7.6,
          9.1
        ],
        [
          "14 Sep",
          24.1,
          13.3,
          11.6,
          8.1,
          11.2
        ],
        [
          "21 Sep",
          20.8,
          13.1,
          11.6,
          8.2,
          8.9
        ],
        [
          "28 Sep",
          20.9,
          13.2,
          11.6,
          7.6,
          8.8
        ],
        [
          "5 Oct",
          20.2,
          13.5,
          10.9,
          7.9,
          9.1
        ],
        [
          "12 Oct",
          19.6,
          13.1,
          10.4,
          9.1,
          7.9
        ],
        [
          "19 Oct",
          20.5,
          13.2,
          10.5,
          9,
          7.9
        ],
        [
          "26 Oct",
          20.1,
          12.7,
          9.5,
          9.5,
          9.1
        ]
      ],
      "measurementContext": "Polymarket, Monday readings, 21 July 2025 to 26 October 2026. Percent.",
      "sources": [
        {
          "label": "Polymarket — Presidential Election Winner 2028",
          "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/presidential-election-winner-2028",
          "note": "Prices read at 20:00 UTC on 26 October 2026."
        },
        {
          "label": "Polymarket — Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028",
          "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/democratic-presidential-nominee-2028",
          "note": null
        },
        {
          "label": "Polymarket — Republican Presidential Nominee 2028",
          "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/republican-presidential-nominee-2028",
          "note": null
        },
        {
          "label": "Polymarket — Which party wins 2028 US Presidential Election?",
          "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/which-party-wins-2028-us-presidential-election",
          "note": null
        },
        {
          "label": "Polymarket — Republican Nominee 2024 (single markets)",
          "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-win-the-us-2024-republican-presidential-nomination",
          "note": "Trump and DeSantis nominee prices from November 2022."
        },
        {
          "label": "Polymarket API — price history",
          "url": "https://docs.polymarket.com/",
          "note": "Minute and daily Yes prices from the CLOB API. Vultax computed the readings and the implied column."
        },
        {
          "label": "Conditional formula proofs",
          "url": "https://vultax.com/datasets/research-proof-library-2026-10-25/scopes/6a42766b5c037aeceb18598d00daa7a3e3f90077df617c8cba0345941df06511.md",
          "note": "Conditional formulas only. The proofs cover the conditional mathematical formulas; article-specific measurements and numerical results have not been proved."
        },
        {
          "label": "Per-article scope records and Lean package",
          "url": "https://vultax.com/datasets/research-proof-library-2026-10-25/README.md",
          "note": "Dated per-article scope records, Lean source, frozen permitted public inputs, checker logs and a reproducible ZIP. Covers only the scope stated in each record, not the whole study."
        }
      ],
      "measurement": {
        "kind": "observed",
        "temporalCoverage": "2025-07-21/2026-10-26",
        "population": "Yes prices of five names in Polymarket's Presidential Election Winner 2028",
        "methodology": "Daily price-history values, the first reading on each Monday; zero before a name was listed."
      },
      "id": "winner-race-chart",
      "kind": "published-chart",
      "description": "JD Vance leads Polymarket's 2028 presidential market at 19.9% and Democrats are 64.5% to win the White House. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Gavin Newsom and Jon Ossoff are within two points of each other for the nomination, and the three markets do not add up.",
      "articleUrl": "https://vultax.com/research/2028-presidential-election-odds-polymarket",
      "sectionUrl": "https://vultax.com/research/2028-presidential-election-odds-polymarket#winner-race",
      "publishedAt": "2026-10-27",
      "modifiedAt": "2026-10-27",
      "version": "fe6f8b56b1b46610215e176484da7beb8b8e9fabd8578d9bf8982c3a833a5267",
      "isLive": false,
      "limitations": "Published research snapshots and calculations; these exports do not contain current quotes or live account data. Observation windows and populations are stated in the source captions and methodology. Missing metadata is unknown, not zero. A reading of public market prices at the stated times, not a forecast by Vultax, not a statement about any candidate and not advice to trade.",
      "downloads": {
        "json": "https://vultax.com/research/2028-presidential-election-odds-polymarket/data.json?dataset=winner-race-chart",
        "csv": "https://vultax.com/research/2028-presidential-election-odds-polymarket/data.csv?dataset=winner-race-chart"
      }
    }
  ]
}