Ocasio-Cortez's implied chance if nominated: 77.9%

JD Vance leads Polymarket's 2028 presidential market at 19.9% and Democrats are 64.5% to win the White House. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Gavin Newsom and Jon Ossoff are within two points of each other for the nomination, and the three markets do not add up.

- JD Vance, 2028 winner price: 19.9%
- Democrats to win the White House: 64.5%
- Gap between the top three Democrats: 1.9 pts

Observed 2026-10-26T20:00Z, population: Polymarket's Presidential Election Winner 2028, Democratic and Republican Presidential Nominee 2028 markets.

Study: https://vultax.com/research/2028-presidential-election-odds-polymarket
Markdown: https://vultax.com/research/2028-presidential-election-odds-polymarket.md
Data: https://vultax.com/research/2028-presidential-election-odds-polymarket/data.json
Share card: https://vultax.com/og/article/research/2028-presidential-election-odds-polymarket
Live screen: https://app.vultax.com/predictions/topic/us-election-2028

Vultax Research, 2028 Election Odds: Vance 20%, Democrats 64.5%, and Three Democrats Within Two Points, 2026-10-27, https://vultax.com/research/2028-presidential-election-odds-polymarket