{
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  "articleUrl": "https://vultax.com/research/ballon-dor-2026-odds-polymarket",
  "datasets": [
    {
      "title": "Ballon d'Or 2026 odds on Polymarket",
      "columns": [
        {
          "name": "Candidate",
          "unit": null
        },
        {
          "name": "Win",
          "unit": null
        },
        {
          "name": "Top three finish",
          "unit": null
        }
      ],
      "rows": [
        [
          "Harry Kane",
          "67.1%",
          "97.2%"
        ],
        [
          "Lamine Yamal",
          "24.9%",
          "92.2%"
        ],
        [
          "Kylian Mbappé",
          "3.4%",
          "78.5%"
        ],
        [
          "Lionel Messi",
          "3.1%",
          "20.5%"
        ],
        [
          "Khvicha Kvaratskhelia",
          "0.4%",
          "5.9%"
        ],
        [
          "Rodri",
          "0.4%",
          "10.5%"
        ],
        [
          "Erling Haaland",
          "0.2%",
          "2.1%"
        ],
        [
          "Ousmane Dembélé",
          "0.2%",
          "4.5%"
        ],
        [
          "Michael Olise",
          "0.2%",
          "4.8%"
        ],
        [
          "Fabian Ruiz",
          "0.2%",
          "3.9%"
        ]
      ],
      "measurementContext": "Polymarket Yes prices at 12:45 UTC on 19 October 2026: each market's last minute price at or before that time. A price under 1% is mostly the gap between buyers and sellers. Live prices are in the Ballon d'Or odds room.",
      "sources": [
        {
          "label": "Polymarket — Ballon d'Or Winner 2026",
          "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/ballon-dor-winner-2026",
          "note": "The 2026 market; prices read at 12:45 UTC on 19 October 2026."
        },
        {
          "label": "Polymarket — Ballon d'Or Top 3 Finish 2026",
          "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/ballon-dor-top-3-finish-2026",
          "note": "Top-three prices in the 2026 table."
        },
        {
          "label": "Polymarket — Women's Ballon d'Or Winner 2026",
          "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/womens-ballon-dor-winner-2026",
          "note": null
        },
        {
          "label": "Polymarket — Ballon d'Or Winner (2024)",
          "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/ballon-dor-winner",
          "note": "13 markets, settled 28 October 2024."
        },
        {
          "label": "Polymarket — Ballon d'Or Winner 2025",
          "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/ballon-dor-winner-2025",
          "note": "26 markets, settled 22 September 2025."
        },
        {
          "label": "Polymarket API — price history and trades",
          "url": "https://docs.polymarket.com/",
          "note": "Minute, hourly and daily Yes prices from the CLOB API; taker trades from the data API. Vultax computed the readings and sums."
        },
        {
          "label": "Reuters, via Flashscore — Real Madrid will not travel to Ballon d'Or awards",
          "url": "https://www.flashscore.com/news/real-madrid-will-not-travel-to-ballon-d-or-awards-with-vinicius-reportedly-set-to-miss-out/6er1Ccoo",
          "note": "28 October 2024 report on the club cancelling its trip."
        },
        {
          "label": "AFP, via The Peninsula — London to host 2026 Ballon d'Or in October",
          "url": "https://thepeninsulaqatar.com/article/28/05/2026/london-to-host-2026-ballon-dor-in-october-organisers",
          "note": "28 May 2026: ceremony on 26 October in London."
        },
        {
          "label": "beIN Sports — Kane, Yamal and Mbappe headline 30-man Ballon d'Or shortlist",
          "url": "https://www.beinsports.com/en-us/soccer/mls/articles/kane-yamal-and-mbappe-headline-30-man-ballon-dor-shortlist-2026-09-08",
          "note": "The 2026 shortlist, 8 September 2026."
        },
        {
          "label": "NBC Philadelphia — Spain tops Lionel Messi, Argentina 1-0 to win 2026 World Cup",
          "url": "https://www.nbcphiladelphia.com/world-cup/spain-argentina-final-messi-yamal-score/4435613/",
          "note": "19 July 2026 final, decided in extra time."
        }
      ],
      "measurement": {
        "kind": "observed",
        "temporalCoverage": "2026-10-19T12:45Z",
        "population": "Open markets in Polymarket's Ballon d'Or Winner 2026 and Top 3 Finish 2026 events",
        "methodology": "Last minute Yes price at or before 12:45 UTC from the CLOB price-history API."
      },
      "id": "section-ballon-d-or-2026-odds-on-polymarket-table",
      "kind": "published-table",
      "description": "Harry Kane leads Polymarket's 2026 Ballon d'Or market at 67.1% a week before the London ceremony. In 2024 Vinícius Júnior was 89.5% a week out and lost: the price turned in 24 minutes on the afternoon of the ceremony. In 2025 Ousmane Dembélé was 85.2% and won.",
      "articleUrl": "https://vultax.com/research/ballon-dor-2026-odds-polymarket",
      "sectionUrl": "https://vultax.com/research/ballon-dor-2026-odds-polymarket#section-ballon-d-or-2026-odds-on-polymarket",
      "publishedAt": "2026-10-20",
      "modifiedAt": "2026-10-20",
      "version": "0fe50efeaf06c72b1c9a2ebd84c7be85f62c78db861e80bddf92dc5b109bd20d",
      "isLive": false,
      "limitations": "Published research snapshots and calculations; these exports do not contain current quotes or live account data. Observation windows and populations are stated in the source captions and methodology. Missing metadata is unknown, not zero. A reading of public market prices and trades at the stated times, not a forecast by Vultax and not advice to trade. No wallet, account or trader is identified or accused.",
      "downloads": {
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      }
    },
    {
      "title": "Ballon d'Or 2026 winner price, four leading names",
      "columns": [
        {
          "name": "Category",
          "unit": null
        },
        {
          "name": "Harry Kane",
          "unit": "%"
        },
        {
          "name": "Lamine Yamal",
          "unit": "%"
        },
        {
          "name": "Kylian Mbappé",
          "unit": "%"
        },
        {
          "name": "Ousmane Dembélé",
          "unit": "%"
        }
      ],
      "rows": [
        [
          "29 Sep",
          15.6,
          21.5,
          25,
          9.5
        ],
        [
          "6 Oct",
          13.5,
          24,
          32,
          10.5
        ],
        [
          "13 Oct",
          10.7,
          22,
          32.5,
          10
        ],
        [
          "20 Oct",
          13,
          22.5,
          23.5,
          9
        ],
        [
          "27 Oct",
          13.2,
          24,
          27.5,
          9
        ],
        [
          "3 Nov",
          13.6,
          22.5,
          30,
          7.5
        ],
        [
          "10 Nov",
          15,
          22,
          32,
          3.6
        ],
        [
          "17 Nov",
          15,
          22.5,
          34,
          4
        ],
        [
          "24 Nov",
          16.5,
          21.5,
          31.5,
          3.5
        ],
        [
          "1 Dec",
          19.5,
          20.5,
          33,
          3.4
        ],
        [
          "8 Dec",
          17.6,
          19.5,
          35,
          3
        ],
        [
          "15 Dec",
          20.7,
          19.5,
          29.5,
          2.9
        ],
        [
          "22 Dec",
          19.3,
          19,
          27.5,
          3
        ],
        [
          "29 Dec",
          19.8,
          19,
          27,
          2.8
        ],
        [
          "5 Jan 2026",
          19.5,
          18.5,
          30,
          2.8
        ],
        [
          "12 Jan",
          20.8,
          20.5,
          29,
          2.8
        ],
        [
          "19 Jan",
          19.7,
          20.5,
          31,
          2.9
        ],
        [
          "26 Jan",
          21.7,
          23.5,
          28.5,
          3
        ],
        [
          "2 Feb",
          22.7,
          28.5,
          26.5,
          2.6
        ],
        [
          "9 Feb",
          17.7,
          27,
          28.5,
          2.2
        ],
        [
          "16 Feb",
          15.4,
          27.5,
          31,
          2.2
        ],
        [
          "23 Feb",
          17.8,
          22.5,
          34,
          2.1
        ],
        [
          "2 Mar",
          19,
          27.5,
          33.5,
          1.6
        ],
        [
          "9 Mar",
          25.9,
          29.5,
          21,
          2.5
        ],
        [
          "16 Mar",
          24,
          32.5,
          21.5,
          2.5
        ],
        [
          "23 Mar",
          24.9,
          30,
          24,
          1.8
        ],
        [
          "30 Mar",
          23.4,
          23.5,
          22.5,
          1.8
        ],
        [
          "6 Apr",
          21.2,
          23.5,
          24.5,
          1.5
        ],
        [
          "13 Apr",
          33.8,
          18.5,
          17.5,
          2.6
        ],
        [
          "20 Apr",
          30.3,
          15.5,
          14.5,
          5.6
        ],
        [
          "27 Apr",
          38.2,
          10.5,
          12.5,
          6.1
        ],
        [
          "4 May",
          36.3,
          8.5,
          11,
          9.5
        ],
        [
          "11 May",
          18.1,
          8.5,
          10.5,
          20.5
        ],
        [
          "18 May",
          18.1,
          8,
          8.5,
          24.1
        ],
        [
          "25 May",
          25.4,
          11,
          8.5,
          19
        ],
        [
          "1 Jun",
          27.1,
          10.5,
          8.5,
          24.8
        ],
        [
          "8 Jun",
          27.1,
          14.5,
          9.5,
          18.1
        ],
        [
          "15 Jun",
          28,
          16,
          8.5,
          12.1
        ],
        [
          "22 Jun",
          32,
          13.5,
          11.5,
          7.6
        ],
        [
          "29 Jun",
          21.7,
          8.5,
          16.5,
          15.7
        ],
        [
          "6 Jul",
          22.3,
          7.5,
          26,
          12
        ],
        [
          "13 Jul",
          29,
          5.3,
          32.5,
          15.2
        ],
        [
          "20 Jul",
          40.2,
          28.8,
          7.5,
          4.7
        ],
        [
          "27 Jul",
          43.7,
          25.5,
          10.3,
          1.4
        ],
        [
          "3 Aug",
          53.6,
          21.4,
          9.8,
          1.4
        ],
        [
          "10 Aug",
          58.6,
          17.7,
          8.1,
          1.7
        ],
        [
          "17 Aug",
          60.7,
          15.6,
          8.3,
          2.1
        ],
        [
          "24 Aug",
          61.3,
          15.9,
          6.8,
          1.5
        ],
        [
          "31 Aug",
          64.5,
          15,
          9.2,
          1.2
        ],
        [
          "7 Sep",
          64.2,
          14.7,
          7.9,
          0.6
        ],
        [
          "14 Sep",
          60.5,
          16.6,
          10.6,
          0.7
        ],
        [
          "21 Sep",
          57,
          22,
          7.5,
          0.9
        ],
        [
          "28 Sep",
          54.7,
          31.5,
          6.4,
          0.8
        ],
        [
          "5 Oct",
          47.3,
          44.7,
          2.4,
          0.5
        ],
        [
          "12 Oct",
          65.9,
          28.4,
          2.1,
          0.3
        ],
        [
          "19 Oct",
          67.3,
          26.6,
          2.9,
          0.3
        ]
      ],
      "measurementContext": "Polymarket, Monday 00:00 UTC readings, 29 September 2025 to 19 October 2026. Percent.",
      "sources": [
        {
          "label": "Polymarket — Ballon d'Or Winner 2026",
          "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/ballon-dor-winner-2026",
          "note": "The 2026 market; prices read at 12:45 UTC on 19 October 2026."
        },
        {
          "label": "Polymarket — Ballon d'Or Top 3 Finish 2026",
          "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/ballon-dor-top-3-finish-2026",
          "note": "Top-three prices in the 2026 table."
        },
        {
          "label": "Polymarket — Women's Ballon d'Or Winner 2026",
          "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/womens-ballon-dor-winner-2026",
          "note": null
        },
        {
          "label": "Polymarket — Ballon d'Or Winner (2024)",
          "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/ballon-dor-winner",
          "note": "13 markets, settled 28 October 2024."
        },
        {
          "label": "Polymarket — Ballon d'Or Winner 2025",
          "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/ballon-dor-winner-2025",
          "note": "26 markets, settled 22 September 2025."
        },
        {
          "label": "Polymarket API — price history and trades",
          "url": "https://docs.polymarket.com/",
          "note": "Minute, hourly and daily Yes prices from the CLOB API; taker trades from the data API. Vultax computed the readings and sums."
        },
        {
          "label": "Reuters, via Flashscore — Real Madrid will not travel to Ballon d'Or awards",
          "url": "https://www.flashscore.com/news/real-madrid-will-not-travel-to-ballon-d-or-awards-with-vinicius-reportedly-set-to-miss-out/6er1Ccoo",
          "note": "28 October 2024 report on the club cancelling its trip."
        },
        {
          "label": "AFP, via The Peninsula — London to host 2026 Ballon d'Or in October",
          "url": "https://thepeninsulaqatar.com/article/28/05/2026/london-to-host-2026-ballon-dor-in-october-organisers",
          "note": "28 May 2026: ceremony on 26 October in London."
        },
        {
          "label": "beIN Sports — Kane, Yamal and Mbappe headline 30-man Ballon d'Or shortlist",
          "url": "https://www.beinsports.com/en-us/soccer/mls/articles/kane-yamal-and-mbappe-headline-30-man-ballon-dor-shortlist-2026-09-08",
          "note": "The 2026 shortlist, 8 September 2026."
        },
        {
          "label": "NBC Philadelphia — Spain tops Lionel Messi, Argentina 1-0 to win 2026 World Cup",
          "url": "https://www.nbcphiladelphia.com/world-cup/spain-argentina-final-messi-yamal-score/4435613/",
          "note": "19 July 2026 final, decided in extra time."
        }
      ],
      "measurement": {
        "kind": "observed",
        "temporalCoverage": "2025-09-29/2026-10-19",
        "population": "Yes prices of Kane, Yamal, Mbappé and Dembélé in Polymarket's Ballon d'Or Winner 2026",
        "methodology": "Daily price-history values at 00:00 UTC, one per week."
      },
      "id": "how-2026-changed-chart",
      "kind": "published-chart",
      "description": "Harry Kane leads Polymarket's 2026 Ballon d'Or market at 67.1% a week before the London ceremony. In 2024 Vinícius Júnior was 89.5% a week out and lost: the price turned in 24 minutes on the afternoon of the ceremony. In 2025 Ousmane Dembélé was 85.2% and won.",
      "articleUrl": "https://vultax.com/research/ballon-dor-2026-odds-polymarket",
      "sectionUrl": "https://vultax.com/research/ballon-dor-2026-odds-polymarket#how-2026-changed",
      "publishedAt": "2026-10-20",
      "modifiedAt": "2026-10-20",
      "version": "9517909a36f7539ced753d1e4a961026a12056561ff743cede7e1d3e948e11f4",
      "isLive": false,
      "limitations": "Published research snapshots and calculations; these exports do not contain current quotes or live account data. Observation windows and populations are stated in the source captions and methodology. Missing metadata is unknown, not zero. A reading of public market prices and trades at the stated times, not a forecast by Vultax and not advice to trade. No wallet, account or trader is identified or accused.",
      "downloads": {
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        "csv": "https://vultax.com/research/ballon-dor-2026-odds-polymarket/data.csv?dataset=how-2026-changed-chart"
      }
    },
    {
      "title": "2024: the favourite who lost",
      "columns": [
        {
          "name": "28 Oct 2024",
          "unit": null
        },
        {
          "name": "Vinícius Júnior",
          "unit": null
        },
        {
          "name": "Rodri",
          "unit": null
        }
      ],
      "rows": [
        [
          "13:45 UTC",
          "79.0%",
          "20.1%"
        ],
        [
          "13:48 UTC",
          "80.5%",
          "19.6%"
        ],
        [
          "13:51 UTC",
          "75.0%",
          "20.5%"
        ],
        [
          "13:54 UTC",
          "73.0%",
          "22.9%"
        ],
        [
          "13:57 UTC",
          "67.5%",
          "56.8%"
        ],
        [
          "14:00 UTC",
          "62.5%",
          "32.6%"
        ],
        [
          "14:03 UTC",
          "35.0%",
          "62.0%"
        ],
        [
          "14:06 UTC",
          "25.5%",
          "66.0%"
        ],
        [
          "14:09 UTC",
          "11.5%",
          "83.7%"
        ],
        [
          "14:12 UTC",
          "8.5%",
          "90.2%"
        ],
        [
          "14:15 UTC",
          "5.5%",
          "90.2%"
        ]
      ],
      "measurementContext": "Polymarket minute prices, every three minutes. The two prices can add to more or less than 100% because each is its own market.",
      "sources": [
        {
          "label": "Polymarket — Ballon d'Or Winner 2026",
          "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/ballon-dor-winner-2026",
          "note": "The 2026 market; prices read at 12:45 UTC on 19 October 2026."
        },
        {
          "label": "Polymarket — Ballon d'Or Top 3 Finish 2026",
          "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/ballon-dor-top-3-finish-2026",
          "note": "Top-three prices in the 2026 table."
        },
        {
          "label": "Polymarket — Women's Ballon d'Or Winner 2026",
          "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/womens-ballon-dor-winner-2026",
          "note": null
        },
        {
          "label": "Polymarket — Ballon d'Or Winner (2024)",
          "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/ballon-dor-winner",
          "note": "13 markets, settled 28 October 2024."
        },
        {
          "label": "Polymarket — Ballon d'Or Winner 2025",
          "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/ballon-dor-winner-2025",
          "note": "26 markets, settled 22 September 2025."
        },
        {
          "label": "Polymarket API — price history and trades",
          "url": "https://docs.polymarket.com/",
          "note": "Minute, hourly and daily Yes prices from the CLOB API; taker trades from the data API. Vultax computed the readings and sums."
        },
        {
          "label": "Reuters, via Flashscore — Real Madrid will not travel to Ballon d'Or awards",
          "url": "https://www.flashscore.com/news/real-madrid-will-not-travel-to-ballon-d-or-awards-with-vinicius-reportedly-set-to-miss-out/6er1Ccoo",
          "note": "28 October 2024 report on the club cancelling its trip."
        },
        {
          "label": "AFP, via The Peninsula — London to host 2026 Ballon d'Or in October",
          "url": "https://thepeninsulaqatar.com/article/28/05/2026/london-to-host-2026-ballon-dor-in-october-organisers",
          "note": "28 May 2026: ceremony on 26 October in London."
        },
        {
          "label": "beIN Sports — Kane, Yamal and Mbappe headline 30-man Ballon d'Or shortlist",
          "url": "https://www.beinsports.com/en-us/soccer/mls/articles/kane-yamal-and-mbappe-headline-30-man-ballon-dor-shortlist-2026-09-08",
          "note": "The 2026 shortlist, 8 September 2026."
        },
        {
          "label": "NBC Philadelphia — Spain tops Lionel Messi, Argentina 1-0 to win 2026 World Cup",
          "url": "https://www.nbcphiladelphia.com/world-cup/spain-argentina-final-messi-yamal-score/4435613/",
          "note": "19 July 2026 final, decided in extra time."
        }
      ],
      "measurement": {
        "kind": "observed",
        "temporalCoverage": "2024-10-28T13:45Z/2024-10-28T14:15Z",
        "population": "Vinícius Júnior and Rodri Yes prices",
        "methodology": "Last minute price at or before each time."
      },
      "id": "section-2024-the-favourite-who-lost-table",
      "kind": "published-table",
      "description": "Harry Kane leads Polymarket's 2026 Ballon d'Or market at 67.1% a week before the London ceremony. In 2024 Vinícius Júnior was 89.5% a week out and lost: the price turned in 24 minutes on the afternoon of the ceremony. In 2025 Ousmane Dembélé was 85.2% and won.",
      "articleUrl": "https://vultax.com/research/ballon-dor-2026-odds-polymarket",
      "sectionUrl": "https://vultax.com/research/ballon-dor-2026-odds-polymarket#section-2024-the-favourite-who-lost",
      "publishedAt": "2026-10-20",
      "modifiedAt": "2026-10-20",
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      "downloads": {
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    },
    {
      "title": "Vinícius Júnior and Rodri on the day of the 2024 ceremony",
      "columns": [
        {
          "name": "Category",
          "unit": null
        },
        {
          "name": "Vinícius Júnior",
          "unit": "%"
        },
        {
          "name": "Rodri",
          "unit": "%"
        }
      ],
      "rows": [
        [
          "00:00",
          83,
          9.6
        ],
        [
          "00:10",
          84,
          15.4
        ],
        [
          "00:20",
          87.5,
          14.7
        ],
        [
          "00:30",
          84.5,
          14.8
        ],
        [
          "00:40",
          83,
          14.5
        ],
        [
          "00:50",
          87,
          14.2
        ],
        [
          "01:00",
          84,
          14.5
        ],
        [
          "01:10",
          86.5,
          12.4
        ],
        [
          "01:20",
          87,
          12.4
        ],
        [
          "01:30",
          87.5,
          12.4
        ],
        [
          "01:40",
          87.5,
          12.4
        ],
        [
          "01:50",
          86,
          12.5
        ],
        [
          "02:00",
          86,
          12.7
        ],
        [
          "02:10",
          87.5,
          12.6
        ],
        [
          "02:20",
          87.5,
          12.6
        ],
        [
          "02:30",
          87.5,
          12.6
        ],
        [
          "02:40",
          88,
          12.5
        ],
        [
          "02:50",
          87.5,
          12.5
        ],
        [
          "03:00",
          88.5,
          12.5
        ],
        [
          "03:10",
          90.5,
          12.1
        ],
        [
          "03:20",
          91,
          12.1
        ],
        [
          "03:30",
          88.5,
          12.4
        ],
        [
          "03:40",
          88.5,
          12.6
        ],
        [
          "03:50",
          87,
          12.9
        ],
        [
          "04:00",
          87.5,
          13
        ],
        [
          "04:10",
          87.5,
          11.9
        ],
        [
          "04:20",
          88.5,
          10.7
        ],
        [
          "04:30",
          88.5,
          10.7
        ],
        [
          "04:40",
          88.5,
          10.5
        ],
        [
          "04:50",
          89.5,
          9.8
        ],
        [
          "05:00",
          90.5,
          8.8
        ],
        [
          "05:10",
          90,
          8.9
        ],
        [
          "05:20",
          90.5,
          9.2
        ],
        [
          "05:30",
          90.5,
          8.9
        ],
        [
          "05:40",
          90,
          9.3
        ],
        [
          "05:50",
          90,
          9.4
        ],
        [
          "06:00",
          90.5,
          8.8
        ],
        [
          "06:10",
          90.5,
          8.8
        ],
        [
          "06:20",
          90.5,
          8.8
        ],
        [
          "06:30",
          90.5,
          8.8
        ],
        [
          "06:40",
          88.5,
          9.9
        ],
        [
          "06:50",
          88,
          10.2
        ],
        [
          "07:00",
          88,
          11.1
        ],
        [
          "07:10",
          87.5,
          10.9
        ],
        [
          "07:20",
          87,
          11.7
        ],
        [
          "07:30",
          87,
          11.5
        ],
        [
          "07:40",
          87.5,
          11.4
        ],
        [
          "07:50",
          87.5,
          11.4
        ],
        [
          "08:00",
          87.5,
          11.4
        ],
        [
          "08:10",
          87,
          11.4
        ],
        [
          "08:20",
          88,
          11.4
        ],
        [
          "08:30",
          85.5,
          11.4
        ],
        [
          "08:40",
          89,
          11
        ],
        [
          "08:50",
          87,
          11
        ],
        [
          "09:00",
          87.5,
          11
        ],
        [
          "09:10",
          87.5,
          10.8
        ],
        [
          "09:20",
          89,
          10.8
        ],
        [
          "09:30",
          89,
          10.8
        ],
        [
          "09:40",
          90.5,
          10.7
        ],
        [
          "09:50",
          88.5,
          10.7
        ],
        [
          "10:00",
          87,
          10.7
        ],
        [
          "10:10",
          86,
          12.2
        ],
        [
          "10:20",
          86,
          12.2
        ],
        [
          "10:30",
          87.5,
          12.2
        ],
        [
          "10:40",
          88.5,
          12.2
        ],
        [
          "10:50",
          88,
          12.1
        ],
        [
          "11:00",
          88.5,
          10.3
        ],
        [
          "11:10",
          89.5,
          10.3
        ],
        [
          "11:20",
          89.5,
          10.3
        ],
        [
          "11:30",
          89.5,
          12.2
        ],
        [
          "11:40",
          89.5,
          12.2
        ],
        [
          "11:50",
          90,
          11
        ],
        [
          "12:00",
          89.5,
          11
        ],
        [
          "12:10",
          87.5,
          16.8
        ],
        [
          "12:20",
          85,
          16.2
        ],
        [
          "12:30",
          85,
          15.5
        ],
        [
          "12:40",
          87,
          14
        ],
        [
          "12:50",
          84,
          16.1
        ],
        [
          "13:00",
          86.5,
          16.2
        ],
        [
          "13:10",
          85.5,
          16.2
        ],
        [
          "13:20",
          85.5,
          16
        ],
        [
          "13:30",
          81.5,
          16.1
        ],
        [
          "13:40",
          79.5,
          20
        ],
        [
          "13:50",
          70.5,
          20.5
        ],
        [
          "14:00",
          62.5,
          32.6
        ],
        [
          "14:10",
          6.5,
          84.7
        ],
        [
          "14:20",
          6.5,
          89.6
        ],
        [
          "14:30",
          5.5,
          93.2
        ],
        [
          "14:40",
          3,
          93.8
        ],
        [
          "14:50",
          7.2,
          92.3
        ],
        [
          "15:00",
          4.4,
          93.1
        ],
        [
          "15:10",
          7.8,
          89.8
        ],
        [
          "15:20",
          8.2,
          90.7
        ],
        [
          "15:30",
          4.6,
          95.5
        ],
        [
          "15:40",
          5,
          93.8
        ],
        [
          "15:50",
          5.1,
          94
        ],
        [
          "16:00",
          4.6,
          94.9
        ],
        [
          "16:10",
          4.8,
          94.2
        ],
        [
          "16:20",
          6.9,
          93.4
        ],
        [
          "16:30",
          9.4,
          90.3
        ],
        [
          "16:40",
          9.7,
          89.3
        ],
        [
          "16:50",
          9.2,
          89.7
        ],
        [
          "17:00",
          9.1,
          90.5
        ],
        [
          "17:10",
          8.2,
          91.1
        ],
        [
          "17:20",
          8.5,
          90.7
        ],
        [
          "17:30",
          17.7,
          84.4
        ],
        [
          "17:40",
          18.5,
          80.8
        ],
        [
          "17:50",
          16.7,
          83.7
        ],
        [
          "18:00",
          11.7,
          86.8
        ],
        [
          "18:10",
          11.5,
          89.2
        ],
        [
          "18:20",
          12,
          85.4
        ],
        [
          "18:30",
          12,
          86.9
        ],
        [
          "18:40",
          11.5,
          89.1
        ],
        [
          "18:50",
          7.9,
          91.8
        ],
        [
          "19:00",
          7.6,
          92.2
        ],
        [
          "19:10",
          7.7,
          92.1
        ],
        [
          "19:20",
          8,
          90.7
        ],
        [
          "19:30",
          6.7,
          91.3
        ],
        [
          "19:40",
          13.5,
          92.8
        ],
        [
          "19:50",
          12.2,
          89.5
        ],
        [
          "20:00",
          6.3,
          91.4
        ],
        [
          "20:10",
          3.2,
          94.1
        ],
        [
          "20:20",
          4.5,
          96.1
        ],
        [
          "20:30",
          4.2,
          95.5
        ],
        [
          "20:40",
          4.5,
          95.5
        ],
        [
          "20:50",
          5.7,
          94.8
        ],
        [
          "21:00",
          5.2,
          94.8
        ],
        [
          "21:10",
          5,
          94.9
        ],
        [
          "21:20",
          9,
          90.7
        ],
        [
          "21:30",
          6.7,
          93.2
        ],
        [
          "21:40",
          6.1,
          92.2
        ]
      ],
      "measurementContext": "Polymarket, every 10 minutes, 00:00 to 21:40 UTC on 28 October 2024. Percent.",
      "sources": [
        {
          "label": "Polymarket — Ballon d'Or Winner 2026",
          "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/ballon-dor-winner-2026",
          "note": "The 2026 market; prices read at 12:45 UTC on 19 October 2026."
        },
        {
          "label": "Polymarket — Ballon d'Or Top 3 Finish 2026",
          "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/ballon-dor-top-3-finish-2026",
          "note": "Top-three prices in the 2026 table."
        },
        {
          "label": "Polymarket — Women's Ballon d'Or Winner 2026",
          "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/womens-ballon-dor-winner-2026",
          "note": null
        },
        {
          "label": "Polymarket — Ballon d'Or Winner (2024)",
          "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/ballon-dor-winner",
          "note": "13 markets, settled 28 October 2024."
        },
        {
          "label": "Polymarket — Ballon d'Or Winner 2025",
          "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/ballon-dor-winner-2025",
          "note": "26 markets, settled 22 September 2025."
        },
        {
          "label": "Polymarket API — price history and trades",
          "url": "https://docs.polymarket.com/",
          "note": "Minute, hourly and daily Yes prices from the CLOB API; taker trades from the data API. Vultax computed the readings and sums."
        },
        {
          "label": "Reuters, via Flashscore — Real Madrid will not travel to Ballon d'Or awards",
          "url": "https://www.flashscore.com/news/real-madrid-will-not-travel-to-ballon-d-or-awards-with-vinicius-reportedly-set-to-miss-out/6er1Ccoo",
          "note": "28 October 2024 report on the club cancelling its trip."
        },
        {
          "label": "AFP, via The Peninsula — London to host 2026 Ballon d'Or in October",
          "url": "https://thepeninsulaqatar.com/article/28/05/2026/london-to-host-2026-ballon-dor-in-october-organisers",
          "note": "28 May 2026: ceremony on 26 October in London."
        },
        {
          "label": "beIN Sports — Kane, Yamal and Mbappe headline 30-man Ballon d'Or shortlist",
          "url": "https://www.beinsports.com/en-us/soccer/mls/articles/kane-yamal-and-mbappe-headline-30-man-ballon-dor-shortlist-2026-09-08",
          "note": "The 2026 shortlist, 8 September 2026."
        },
        {
          "label": "NBC Philadelphia — Spain tops Lionel Messi, Argentina 1-0 to win 2026 World Cup",
          "url": "https://www.nbcphiladelphia.com/world-cup/spain-argentina-final-messi-yamal-score/4435613/",
          "note": "19 July 2026 final, decided in extra time."
        }
      ],
      "measurement": {
        "kind": "observed",
        "temporalCoverage": "2024-10-28T00:00Z/2024-10-28T21:50Z",
        "population": "Yes prices of Vinícius Júnior and Rodri in Polymarket's 2024 Ballon d'Or Winner market",
        "methodology": "Minute price-history values, read every 10 minutes."
      },
      "id": "section-2024-the-favourite-who-lost-chart",
      "kind": "published-chart",
      "description": "Harry Kane leads Polymarket's 2026 Ballon d'Or market at 67.1% a week before the London ceremony. In 2024 Vinícius Júnior was 89.5% a week out and lost: the price turned in 24 minutes on the afternoon of the ceremony. In 2025 Ousmane Dembélé was 85.2% and won.",
      "articleUrl": "https://vultax.com/research/ballon-dor-2026-odds-polymarket",
      "sectionUrl": "https://vultax.com/research/ballon-dor-2026-odds-polymarket#section-2024-the-favourite-who-lost",
      "publishedAt": "2026-10-20",
      "modifiedAt": "2026-10-20",
      "version": "9dadb34e8ef8651829dc682aba7a61b179a73d963aae771f47030e6eb12deef5",
      "isLive": false,
      "limitations": "Published research snapshots and calculations; these exports do not contain current quotes or live account data. Observation windows and populations are stated in the source captions and methodology. Missing metadata is unknown, not zero. A reading of public market prices and trades at the stated times, not a forecast by Vultax and not advice to trade. No wallet, account or trader is identified or accused.",
      "downloads": {
        "json": "https://vultax.com/research/ballon-dor-2026-odds-polymarket/data.json?dataset=section-2024-the-favourite-who-lost-chart",
        "csv": "https://vultax.com/research/ballon-dor-2026-odds-polymarket/data.csv?dataset=section-2024-the-favourite-who-lost-chart"
      }
    },
    {
      "title": "The favourite's price at the same checkpoints",
      "columns": [
        {
          "name": "Before the market settled",
          "unit": null
        },
        {
          "name": "2024 Vinícius Júnior (lost)",
          "unit": null
        },
        {
          "name": "2024 Rodri (won)",
          "unit": null
        },
        {
          "name": "2025 Ousmane Dembélé (won)",
          "unit": null
        }
      ],
      "rows": [
        [
          "30 days",
          "88.0%",
          "7.0%",
          "84.7%"
        ],
        [
          "7 days",
          "89.5%",
          "8.3%",
          "85.2%"
        ],
        [
          "24 hours",
          "92.5%",
          "6.7%",
          "84.7%"
        ],
        [
          "1 hour",
          "3.9%",
          "95.0%",
          "79.9%"
        ],
        [
          "10 minutes",
          "7.1%",
          "92.0%",
          "84.5%"
        ]
      ],
      "measurementContext": "Settled: the first minute the winner's price reached 99.9%, 21:46 UTC on 28 October 2024 and 20:49 UTC on 22 September 2025. The 30-day and 7-day readings are daily 00:00 UTC values; the others are minute values.",
      "sources": [
        {
          "label": "Polymarket — Ballon d'Or Winner 2026",
          "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/ballon-dor-winner-2026",
          "note": "The 2026 market; prices read at 12:45 UTC on 19 October 2026."
        },
        {
          "label": "Polymarket — Ballon d'Or Top 3 Finish 2026",
          "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/ballon-dor-top-3-finish-2026",
          "note": "Top-three prices in the 2026 table."
        },
        {
          "label": "Polymarket — Women's Ballon d'Or Winner 2026",
          "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/womens-ballon-dor-winner-2026",
          "note": null
        },
        {
          "label": "Polymarket — Ballon d'Or Winner (2024)",
          "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/ballon-dor-winner",
          "note": "13 markets, settled 28 October 2024."
        },
        {
          "label": "Polymarket — Ballon d'Or Winner 2025",
          "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/ballon-dor-winner-2025",
          "note": "26 markets, settled 22 September 2025."
        },
        {
          "label": "Polymarket API — price history and trades",
          "url": "https://docs.polymarket.com/",
          "note": "Minute, hourly and daily Yes prices from the CLOB API; taker trades from the data API. Vultax computed the readings and sums."
        },
        {
          "label": "Reuters, via Flashscore — Real Madrid will not travel to Ballon d'Or awards",
          "url": "https://www.flashscore.com/news/real-madrid-will-not-travel-to-ballon-d-or-awards-with-vinicius-reportedly-set-to-miss-out/6er1Ccoo",
          "note": "28 October 2024 report on the club cancelling its trip."
        },
        {
          "label": "AFP, via The Peninsula — London to host 2026 Ballon d'Or in October",
          "url": "https://thepeninsulaqatar.com/article/28/05/2026/london-to-host-2026-ballon-dor-in-october-organisers",
          "note": "28 May 2026: ceremony on 26 October in London."
        },
        {
          "label": "beIN Sports — Kane, Yamal and Mbappe headline 30-man Ballon d'Or shortlist",
          "url": "https://www.beinsports.com/en-us/soccer/mls/articles/kane-yamal-and-mbappe-headline-30-man-ballon-dor-shortlist-2026-09-08",
          "note": "The 2026 shortlist, 8 September 2026."
        },
        {
          "label": "NBC Philadelphia — Spain tops Lionel Messi, Argentina 1-0 to win 2026 World Cup",
          "url": "https://www.nbcphiladelphia.com/world-cup/spain-argentina-final-messi-yamal-score/4435613/",
          "note": "19 July 2026 final, decided in extra time."
        }
      ],
      "measurement": {
        "kind": "observed",
        "temporalCoverage": "2024-09-28/2025-09-22",
        "population": "The favourite and the winner in Polymarket's 2024 and 2025 men's Ballon d'Or winner markets",
        "methodology": "Price-history values at fixed offsets before settlement."
      },
      "id": "checkpoints-table",
      "kind": "published-table",
      "description": "Harry Kane leads Polymarket's 2026 Ballon d'Or market at 67.1% a week before the London ceremony. In 2024 Vinícius Júnior was 89.5% a week out and lost: the price turned in 24 minutes on the afternoon of the ceremony. In 2025 Ousmane Dembélé was 85.2% and won.",
      "articleUrl": "https://vultax.com/research/ballon-dor-2026-odds-polymarket",
      "sectionUrl": "https://vultax.com/research/ballon-dor-2026-odds-polymarket#checkpoints",
      "publishedAt": "2026-10-20",
      "modifiedAt": "2026-10-20",
      "version": "7bead76a11d1c4ad3c0ba1cf7e06c805ddb20f6afb8fd35e4095a25361fd1a17",
      "isLive": false,
      "limitations": "Published research snapshots and calculations; these exports do not contain current quotes or live account data. Observation windows and populations are stated in the source captions and methodology. Missing metadata is unknown, not zero. A reading of public market prices and trades at the stated times, not a forecast by Vultax and not advice to trade. No wallet, account or trader is identified or accused.",
      "downloads": {
        "json": "https://vultax.com/research/ballon-dor-2026-odds-polymarket/data.json?dataset=checkpoints-table",
        "csv": "https://vultax.com/research/ballon-dor-2026-odds-polymarket/data.csv?dataset=checkpoints-table"
      }
    }
  ]
}