{
  "schemaVersion": "vultax-public-research-data-v1",
  "articleUrl": "https://vultax.com/research/ballon-dor-2026-odds-polymarket",
  "datasets": [
    {
      "title": "The favourite's price at the same checkpoints",
      "columns": [
        {
          "name": "Before the market settled",
          "unit": null
        },
        {
          "name": "2024 Vinícius Júnior (lost)",
          "unit": null
        },
        {
          "name": "2024 Rodri (won)",
          "unit": null
        },
        {
          "name": "2025 Ousmane Dembélé (won)",
          "unit": null
        }
      ],
      "rows": [
        [
          "30 days",
          "88.0%",
          "7.0%",
          "84.7%"
        ],
        [
          "7 days",
          "89.5%",
          "8.3%",
          "85.2%"
        ],
        [
          "24 hours",
          "92.5%",
          "6.7%",
          "84.7%"
        ],
        [
          "1 hour",
          "3.9%",
          "95.0%",
          "79.9%"
        ],
        [
          "10 minutes",
          "7.1%",
          "92.0%",
          "84.5%"
        ]
      ],
      "measurementContext": "Settled: the first minute the winner's price reached 99.9%, 21:46 UTC on 28 October 2024 and 20:49 UTC on 22 September 2025. The 30-day and 7-day readings are daily 00:00 UTC values; the others are minute values.",
      "sources": [
        {
          "label": "Polymarket — Ballon d'Or Winner 2026",
          "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/ballon-dor-winner-2026",
          "note": "The 2026 market; prices read at 12:45 UTC on 19 October 2026."
        },
        {
          "label": "Polymarket — Ballon d'Or Top 3 Finish 2026",
          "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/ballon-dor-top-3-finish-2026",
          "note": "Top-three prices in the 2026 table."
        },
        {
          "label": "Polymarket — Women's Ballon d'Or Winner 2026",
          "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/womens-ballon-dor-winner-2026",
          "note": null
        },
        {
          "label": "Polymarket — Ballon d'Or Winner (2024)",
          "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/ballon-dor-winner",
          "note": "13 markets, settled 28 October 2024."
        },
        {
          "label": "Polymarket — Ballon d'Or Winner 2025",
          "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/ballon-dor-winner-2025",
          "note": "26 markets, settled 22 September 2025."
        },
        {
          "label": "Polymarket API — price history and trades",
          "url": "https://docs.polymarket.com/",
          "note": "Minute, hourly and daily Yes prices from the CLOB API; taker trades from the data API. Vultax computed the readings and sums."
        },
        {
          "label": "Reuters, via Flashscore — Real Madrid will not travel to Ballon d'Or awards",
          "url": "https://www.flashscore.com/news/real-madrid-will-not-travel-to-ballon-d-or-awards-with-vinicius-reportedly-set-to-miss-out/6er1Ccoo",
          "note": "28 October 2024 report on the club cancelling its trip."
        },
        {
          "label": "AFP, via The Peninsula — London to host 2026 Ballon d'Or in October",
          "url": "https://thepeninsulaqatar.com/article/28/05/2026/london-to-host-2026-ballon-dor-in-october-organisers",
          "note": "28 May 2026: ceremony on 26 October in London."
        },
        {
          "label": "beIN Sports — Kane, Yamal and Mbappe headline 30-man Ballon d'Or shortlist",
          "url": "https://www.beinsports.com/en-us/soccer/mls/articles/kane-yamal-and-mbappe-headline-30-man-ballon-dor-shortlist-2026-09-08",
          "note": "The 2026 shortlist, 8 September 2026."
        },
        {
          "label": "NBC Philadelphia — Spain tops Lionel Messi, Argentina 1-0 to win 2026 World Cup",
          "url": "https://www.nbcphiladelphia.com/world-cup/spain-argentina-final-messi-yamal-score/4435613/",
          "note": "19 July 2026 final, decided in extra time."
        }
      ],
      "measurement": {
        "kind": "observed",
        "temporalCoverage": "2024-09-28/2025-09-22",
        "population": "The favourite and the winner in Polymarket's 2024 and 2025 men's Ballon d'Or winner markets",
        "methodology": "Price-history values at fixed offsets before settlement."
      },
      "id": "checkpoints-table",
      "kind": "published-table",
      "description": "Harry Kane leads Polymarket's 2026 Ballon d'Or market at 67.1% a week before the London ceremony. In 2024 Vinícius Júnior was 89.5% a week out and lost: the price turned in 24 minutes on the afternoon of the ceremony. In 2025 Ousmane Dembélé was 85.2% and won.",
      "articleUrl": "https://vultax.com/research/ballon-dor-2026-odds-polymarket",
      "sectionUrl": "https://vultax.com/research/ballon-dor-2026-odds-polymarket#checkpoints",
      "publishedAt": "2026-10-20",
      "modifiedAt": "2026-10-20",
      "version": "7bead76a11d1c4ad3c0ba1cf7e06c805ddb20f6afb8fd35e4095a25361fd1a17",
      "isLive": false,
      "limitations": "Published research snapshots and calculations; these exports do not contain current quotes or live account data. Observation windows and populations are stated in the source captions and methodology. Missing metadata is unknown, not zero. A reading of public market prices and trades at the stated times, not a forecast by Vultax and not advice to trade. No wallet, account or trader is identified or accused.",
      "downloads": {
        "json": "https://vultax.com/research/ballon-dor-2026-odds-polymarket/data.json?dataset=checkpoints-table",
        "csv": "https://vultax.com/research/ballon-dor-2026-odds-polymarket/data.csv?dataset=checkpoints-table"
      }
    }
  ]
}