{
  "schemaVersion": "vultax-public-research-data-v1",
  "articleUrl": "https://vultax.com/research/ballon-dor-2026-odds-polymarket",
  "datasets": [
    {
      "title": "Ballon d'Or 2026 winner price, four leading names",
      "columns": [
        {
          "name": "Category",
          "unit": null
        },
        {
          "name": "Harry Kane",
          "unit": "%"
        },
        {
          "name": "Lamine Yamal",
          "unit": "%"
        },
        {
          "name": "Kylian Mbappé",
          "unit": "%"
        },
        {
          "name": "Ousmane Dembélé",
          "unit": "%"
        }
      ],
      "rows": [
        [
          "29 Sep",
          15.6,
          21.5,
          25,
          9.5
        ],
        [
          "6 Oct",
          13.5,
          24,
          32,
          10.5
        ],
        [
          "13 Oct",
          10.7,
          22,
          32.5,
          10
        ],
        [
          "20 Oct",
          13,
          22.5,
          23.5,
          9
        ],
        [
          "27 Oct",
          13.2,
          24,
          27.5,
          9
        ],
        [
          "3 Nov",
          13.6,
          22.5,
          30,
          7.5
        ],
        [
          "10 Nov",
          15,
          22,
          32,
          3.6
        ],
        [
          "17 Nov",
          15,
          22.5,
          34,
          4
        ],
        [
          "24 Nov",
          16.5,
          21.5,
          31.5,
          3.5
        ],
        [
          "1 Dec",
          19.5,
          20.5,
          33,
          3.4
        ],
        [
          "8 Dec",
          17.6,
          19.5,
          35,
          3
        ],
        [
          "15 Dec",
          20.7,
          19.5,
          29.5,
          2.9
        ],
        [
          "22 Dec",
          19.3,
          19,
          27.5,
          3
        ],
        [
          "29 Dec",
          19.8,
          19,
          27,
          2.8
        ],
        [
          "5 Jan 2026",
          19.5,
          18.5,
          30,
          2.8
        ],
        [
          "12 Jan",
          20.8,
          20.5,
          29,
          2.8
        ],
        [
          "19 Jan",
          19.7,
          20.5,
          31,
          2.9
        ],
        [
          "26 Jan",
          21.7,
          23.5,
          28.5,
          3
        ],
        [
          "2 Feb",
          22.7,
          28.5,
          26.5,
          2.6
        ],
        [
          "9 Feb",
          17.7,
          27,
          28.5,
          2.2
        ],
        [
          "16 Feb",
          15.4,
          27.5,
          31,
          2.2
        ],
        [
          "23 Feb",
          17.8,
          22.5,
          34,
          2.1
        ],
        [
          "2 Mar",
          19,
          27.5,
          33.5,
          1.6
        ],
        [
          "9 Mar",
          25.9,
          29.5,
          21,
          2.5
        ],
        [
          "16 Mar",
          24,
          32.5,
          21.5,
          2.5
        ],
        [
          "23 Mar",
          24.9,
          30,
          24,
          1.8
        ],
        [
          "30 Mar",
          23.4,
          23.5,
          22.5,
          1.8
        ],
        [
          "6 Apr",
          21.2,
          23.5,
          24.5,
          1.5
        ],
        [
          "13 Apr",
          33.8,
          18.5,
          17.5,
          2.6
        ],
        [
          "20 Apr",
          30.3,
          15.5,
          14.5,
          5.6
        ],
        [
          "27 Apr",
          38.2,
          10.5,
          12.5,
          6.1
        ],
        [
          "4 May",
          36.3,
          8.5,
          11,
          9.5
        ],
        [
          "11 May",
          18.1,
          8.5,
          10.5,
          20.5
        ],
        [
          "18 May",
          18.1,
          8,
          8.5,
          24.1
        ],
        [
          "25 May",
          25.4,
          11,
          8.5,
          19
        ],
        [
          "1 Jun",
          27.1,
          10.5,
          8.5,
          24.8
        ],
        [
          "8 Jun",
          27.1,
          14.5,
          9.5,
          18.1
        ],
        [
          "15 Jun",
          28,
          16,
          8.5,
          12.1
        ],
        [
          "22 Jun",
          32,
          13.5,
          11.5,
          7.6
        ],
        [
          "29 Jun",
          21.7,
          8.5,
          16.5,
          15.7
        ],
        [
          "6 Jul",
          22.3,
          7.5,
          26,
          12
        ],
        [
          "13 Jul",
          29,
          5.3,
          32.5,
          15.2
        ],
        [
          "20 Jul",
          40.2,
          28.8,
          7.5,
          4.7
        ],
        [
          "27 Jul",
          43.7,
          25.5,
          10.3,
          1.4
        ],
        [
          "3 Aug",
          53.6,
          21.4,
          9.8,
          1.4
        ],
        [
          "10 Aug",
          58.6,
          17.7,
          8.1,
          1.7
        ],
        [
          "17 Aug",
          60.7,
          15.6,
          8.3,
          2.1
        ],
        [
          "24 Aug",
          61.3,
          15.9,
          6.8,
          1.5
        ],
        [
          "31 Aug",
          64.5,
          15,
          9.2,
          1.2
        ],
        [
          "7 Sep",
          64.2,
          14.7,
          7.9,
          0.6
        ],
        [
          "14 Sep",
          60.5,
          16.6,
          10.6,
          0.7
        ],
        [
          "21 Sep",
          57,
          22,
          7.5,
          0.9
        ],
        [
          "28 Sep",
          54.7,
          31.5,
          6.4,
          0.8
        ],
        [
          "5 Oct",
          47.3,
          44.7,
          2.4,
          0.5
        ],
        [
          "12 Oct",
          65.9,
          28.4,
          2.1,
          0.3
        ],
        [
          "19 Oct",
          67.3,
          26.6,
          2.9,
          0.3
        ]
      ],
      "measurementContext": "Polymarket, Monday 00:00 UTC readings, 29 September 2025 to 19 October 2026. Percent.",
      "sources": [
        {
          "label": "Polymarket — Ballon d'Or Winner 2026",
          "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/ballon-dor-winner-2026",
          "note": "The 2026 market; prices read at 12:45 UTC on 19 October 2026."
        },
        {
          "label": "Polymarket — Ballon d'Or Top 3 Finish 2026",
          "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/ballon-dor-top-3-finish-2026",
          "note": "Top-three prices in the 2026 table."
        },
        {
          "label": "Polymarket — Women's Ballon d'Or Winner 2026",
          "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/womens-ballon-dor-winner-2026",
          "note": null
        },
        {
          "label": "Polymarket — Ballon d'Or Winner (2024)",
          "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/ballon-dor-winner",
          "note": "13 markets, settled 28 October 2024."
        },
        {
          "label": "Polymarket — Ballon d'Or Winner 2025",
          "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/ballon-dor-winner-2025",
          "note": "26 markets, settled 22 September 2025."
        },
        {
          "label": "Polymarket API — price history and trades",
          "url": "https://docs.polymarket.com/",
          "note": "Minute, hourly and daily Yes prices from the CLOB API; taker trades from the data API. Vultax computed the readings and sums."
        },
        {
          "label": "Reuters, via Flashscore — Real Madrid will not travel to Ballon d'Or awards",
          "url": "https://www.flashscore.com/news/real-madrid-will-not-travel-to-ballon-d-or-awards-with-vinicius-reportedly-set-to-miss-out/6er1Ccoo",
          "note": "28 October 2024 report on the club cancelling its trip."
        },
        {
          "label": "AFP, via The Peninsula — London to host 2026 Ballon d'Or in October",
          "url": "https://thepeninsulaqatar.com/article/28/05/2026/london-to-host-2026-ballon-dor-in-october-organisers",
          "note": "28 May 2026: ceremony on 26 October in London."
        },
        {
          "label": "beIN Sports — Kane, Yamal and Mbappe headline 30-man Ballon d'Or shortlist",
          "url": "https://www.beinsports.com/en-us/soccer/mls/articles/kane-yamal-and-mbappe-headline-30-man-ballon-dor-shortlist-2026-09-08",
          "note": "The 2026 shortlist, 8 September 2026."
        },
        {
          "label": "NBC Philadelphia — Spain tops Lionel Messi, Argentina 1-0 to win 2026 World Cup",
          "url": "https://www.nbcphiladelphia.com/world-cup/spain-argentina-final-messi-yamal-score/4435613/",
          "note": "19 July 2026 final, decided in extra time."
        }
      ],
      "measurement": {
        "kind": "observed",
        "temporalCoverage": "2025-09-29/2026-10-19",
        "population": "Yes prices of Kane, Yamal, Mbappé and Dembélé in Polymarket's Ballon d'Or Winner 2026",
        "methodology": "Daily price-history values at 00:00 UTC, one per week."
      },
      "id": "how-2026-changed-chart",
      "kind": "published-chart",
      "description": "Harry Kane leads Polymarket's 2026 Ballon d'Or market at 67.1% a week before the London ceremony. In 2024 Vinícius Júnior was 89.5% a week out and lost: the price turned in 24 minutes on the afternoon of the ceremony. In 2025 Ousmane Dembélé was 85.2% and won.",
      "articleUrl": "https://vultax.com/research/ballon-dor-2026-odds-polymarket",
      "sectionUrl": "https://vultax.com/research/ballon-dor-2026-odds-polymarket#how-2026-changed",
      "publishedAt": "2026-10-20",
      "modifiedAt": "2026-10-20",
      "version": "9517909a36f7539ced753d1e4a961026a12056561ff743cede7e1d3e948e11f4",
      "isLive": false,
      "limitations": "Published research snapshots and calculations; these exports do not contain current quotes or live account data. Observation windows and populations are stated in the source captions and methodology. Missing metadata is unknown, not zero. A reading of public market prices and trades at the stated times, not a forecast by Vultax and not advice to trade. No wallet, account or trader is identified or accused.",
      "downloads": {
        "json": "https://vultax.com/research/ballon-dor-2026-odds-polymarket/data.json?dataset=how-2026-changed-chart",
        "csv": "https://vultax.com/research/ballon-dor-2026-odds-polymarket/data.csv?dataset=how-2026-changed-chart"
      }
    }
  ]
}