{
  "schemaVersion": "vultax-public-research-data-v1",
  "articleUrl": "https://vultax.com/research/ballon-dor-2026-odds-polymarket",
  "datasets": [
    {
      "title": "Vinícius Júnior and Rodri on the day of the 2024 ceremony",
      "columns": [
        {
          "name": "Category",
          "unit": null
        },
        {
          "name": "Vinícius Júnior",
          "unit": "%"
        },
        {
          "name": "Rodri",
          "unit": "%"
        }
      ],
      "rows": [
        [
          "00:00",
          83,
          9.6
        ],
        [
          "00:10",
          84,
          15.4
        ],
        [
          "00:20",
          87.5,
          14.7
        ],
        [
          "00:30",
          84.5,
          14.8
        ],
        [
          "00:40",
          83,
          14.5
        ],
        [
          "00:50",
          87,
          14.2
        ],
        [
          "01:00",
          84,
          14.5
        ],
        [
          "01:10",
          86.5,
          12.4
        ],
        [
          "01:20",
          87,
          12.4
        ],
        [
          "01:30",
          87.5,
          12.4
        ],
        [
          "01:40",
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          12.4
        ],
        [
          "01:50",
          86,
          12.5
        ],
        [
          "02:00",
          86,
          12.7
        ],
        [
          "02:10",
          87.5,
          12.6
        ],
        [
          "02:20",
          87.5,
          12.6
        ],
        [
          "02:30",
          87.5,
          12.6
        ],
        [
          "02:40",
          88,
          12.5
        ],
        [
          "02:50",
          87.5,
          12.5
        ],
        [
          "03:00",
          88.5,
          12.5
        ],
        [
          "03:10",
          90.5,
          12.1
        ],
        [
          "03:20",
          91,
          12.1
        ],
        [
          "03:30",
          88.5,
          12.4
        ],
        [
          "03:40",
          88.5,
          12.6
        ],
        [
          "03:50",
          87,
          12.9
        ],
        [
          "04:00",
          87.5,
          13
        ],
        [
          "04:10",
          87.5,
          11.9
        ],
        [
          "04:20",
          88.5,
          10.7
        ],
        [
          "04:30",
          88.5,
          10.7
        ],
        [
          "04:40",
          88.5,
          10.5
        ],
        [
          "04:50",
          89.5,
          9.8
        ],
        [
          "05:00",
          90.5,
          8.8
        ],
        [
          "05:10",
          90,
          8.9
        ],
        [
          "05:20",
          90.5,
          9.2
        ],
        [
          "05:30",
          90.5,
          8.9
        ],
        [
          "05:40",
          90,
          9.3
        ],
        [
          "05:50",
          90,
          9.4
        ],
        [
          "06:00",
          90.5,
          8.8
        ],
        [
          "06:10",
          90.5,
          8.8
        ],
        [
          "06:20",
          90.5,
          8.8
        ],
        [
          "06:30",
          90.5,
          8.8
        ],
        [
          "06:40",
          88.5,
          9.9
        ],
        [
          "06:50",
          88,
          10.2
        ],
        [
          "07:00",
          88,
          11.1
        ],
        [
          "07:10",
          87.5,
          10.9
        ],
        [
          "07:20",
          87,
          11.7
        ],
        [
          "07:30",
          87,
          11.5
        ],
        [
          "07:40",
          87.5,
          11.4
        ],
        [
          "07:50",
          87.5,
          11.4
        ],
        [
          "08:00",
          87.5,
          11.4
        ],
        [
          "08:10",
          87,
          11.4
        ],
        [
          "08:20",
          88,
          11.4
        ],
        [
          "08:30",
          85.5,
          11.4
        ],
        [
          "08:40",
          89,
          11
        ],
        [
          "08:50",
          87,
          11
        ],
        [
          "09:00",
          87.5,
          11
        ],
        [
          "09:10",
          87.5,
          10.8
        ],
        [
          "09:20",
          89,
          10.8
        ],
        [
          "09:30",
          89,
          10.8
        ],
        [
          "09:40",
          90.5,
          10.7
        ],
        [
          "09:50",
          88.5,
          10.7
        ],
        [
          "10:00",
          87,
          10.7
        ],
        [
          "10:10",
          86,
          12.2
        ],
        [
          "10:20",
          86,
          12.2
        ],
        [
          "10:30",
          87.5,
          12.2
        ],
        [
          "10:40",
          88.5,
          12.2
        ],
        [
          "10:50",
          88,
          12.1
        ],
        [
          "11:00",
          88.5,
          10.3
        ],
        [
          "11:10",
          89.5,
          10.3
        ],
        [
          "11:20",
          89.5,
          10.3
        ],
        [
          "11:30",
          89.5,
          12.2
        ],
        [
          "11:40",
          89.5,
          12.2
        ],
        [
          "11:50",
          90,
          11
        ],
        [
          "12:00",
          89.5,
          11
        ],
        [
          "12:10",
          87.5,
          16.8
        ],
        [
          "12:20",
          85,
          16.2
        ],
        [
          "12:30",
          85,
          15.5
        ],
        [
          "12:40",
          87,
          14
        ],
        [
          "12:50",
          84,
          16.1
        ],
        [
          "13:00",
          86.5,
          16.2
        ],
        [
          "13:10",
          85.5,
          16.2
        ],
        [
          "13:20",
          85.5,
          16
        ],
        [
          "13:30",
          81.5,
          16.1
        ],
        [
          "13:40",
          79.5,
          20
        ],
        [
          "13:50",
          70.5,
          20.5
        ],
        [
          "14:00",
          62.5,
          32.6
        ],
        [
          "14:10",
          6.5,
          84.7
        ],
        [
          "14:20",
          6.5,
          89.6
        ],
        [
          "14:30",
          5.5,
          93.2
        ],
        [
          "14:40",
          3,
          93.8
        ],
        [
          "14:50",
          7.2,
          92.3
        ],
        [
          "15:00",
          4.4,
          93.1
        ],
        [
          "15:10",
          7.8,
          89.8
        ],
        [
          "15:20",
          8.2,
          90.7
        ],
        [
          "15:30",
          4.6,
          95.5
        ],
        [
          "15:40",
          5,
          93.8
        ],
        [
          "15:50",
          5.1,
          94
        ],
        [
          "16:00",
          4.6,
          94.9
        ],
        [
          "16:10",
          4.8,
          94.2
        ],
        [
          "16:20",
          6.9,
          93.4
        ],
        [
          "16:30",
          9.4,
          90.3
        ],
        [
          "16:40",
          9.7,
          89.3
        ],
        [
          "16:50",
          9.2,
          89.7
        ],
        [
          "17:00",
          9.1,
          90.5
        ],
        [
          "17:10",
          8.2,
          91.1
        ],
        [
          "17:20",
          8.5,
          90.7
        ],
        [
          "17:30",
          17.7,
          84.4
        ],
        [
          "17:40",
          18.5,
          80.8
        ],
        [
          "17:50",
          16.7,
          83.7
        ],
        [
          "18:00",
          11.7,
          86.8
        ],
        [
          "18:10",
          11.5,
          89.2
        ],
        [
          "18:20",
          12,
          85.4
        ],
        [
          "18:30",
          12,
          86.9
        ],
        [
          "18:40",
          11.5,
          89.1
        ],
        [
          "18:50",
          7.9,
          91.8
        ],
        [
          "19:00",
          7.6,
          92.2
        ],
        [
          "19:10",
          7.7,
          92.1
        ],
        [
          "19:20",
          8,
          90.7
        ],
        [
          "19:30",
          6.7,
          91.3
        ],
        [
          "19:40",
          13.5,
          92.8
        ],
        [
          "19:50",
          12.2,
          89.5
        ],
        [
          "20:00",
          6.3,
          91.4
        ],
        [
          "20:10",
          3.2,
          94.1
        ],
        [
          "20:20",
          4.5,
          96.1
        ],
        [
          "20:30",
          4.2,
          95.5
        ],
        [
          "20:40",
          4.5,
          95.5
        ],
        [
          "20:50",
          5.7,
          94.8
        ],
        [
          "21:00",
          5.2,
          94.8
        ],
        [
          "21:10",
          5,
          94.9
        ],
        [
          "21:20",
          9,
          90.7
        ],
        [
          "21:30",
          6.7,
          93.2
        ],
        [
          "21:40",
          6.1,
          92.2
        ]
      ],
      "measurementContext": "Polymarket, every 10 minutes, 00:00 to 21:40 UTC on 28 October 2024. Percent.",
      "sources": [
        {
          "label": "UEFA — Harry Kane wins 2026 men's Ballon d'Or",
          "url": "https://www.uefa.com/uefachampionsleague/news/02aa-21ec47378e70-b29defb43769-1000--harry-kane-wins-2026-men-s-ballon-d-or/",
          "note": "26 October 2026: the result and the men's top ten; Putellas won the women's award."
        },
        {
          "label": "Polymarket — Ballon d'Or Winner 2026",
          "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/ballon-dor-winner-2026",
          "note": "The 2026 market; prices read at 12:45 UTC on 19 October 2026 and minute prices and trades for 25 to 27 October read at 05:40 UTC on 27 October. Resolved to Harry Kane."
        },
        {
          "label": "Polymarket — Ballon d'Or Top 3 Finish 2026",
          "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/ballon-dor-top-3-finish-2026",
          "note": "Top-three prices in the 2026 table."
        },
        {
          "label": "Polymarket — Women's Ballon d'Or Winner 2026",
          "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/womens-ballon-dor-winner-2026",
          "note": "Resolved to Alexia Putellas."
        },
        {
          "label": "Polymarket — Ballon d'Or Winner (2024)",
          "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/ballon-dor-winner",
          "note": "13 archived markets for the 28 October 2024 ceremony. Price timestamps and actual platform settlement are distinct."
        },
        {
          "label": "Polymarket — Ballon d'Or Winner 2025",
          "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/ballon-dor-winner-2025",
          "note": "26 archived markets for the 22 September 2025 ceremony. Price timestamps and actual platform settlement are distinct."
        },
        {
          "label": "Polymarket API — price history and trades",
          "url": "https://docs.polymarket.com/",
          "note": "Minute, hourly and daily Yes prices from the CLOB API; taker trades from the data API. Vultax computed the readings and sums."
        },
        {
          "label": "Reuters, via Flashscore — Real Madrid will not travel to Ballon d'Or awards",
          "url": "https://www.flashscore.com/news/real-madrid-will-not-travel-to-ballon-d-or-awards-with-vinicius-reportedly-set-to-miss-out/6er1Ccoo",
          "note": "28 October 2024 report on the club cancelling its trip."
        },
        {
          "label": "AFP, via The Peninsula — London to host 2026 Ballon d'Or in October",
          "url": "https://thepeninsulaqatar.com/article/28/05/2026/london-to-host-2026-ballon-dor-in-october-organisers",
          "note": "28 May 2026: ceremony on 26 October in London."
        },
        {
          "label": "beIN Sports — Kane, Yamal and Mbappe headline 30-man Ballon d'Or shortlist",
          "url": "https://www.beinsports.com/en-us/soccer/mls/articles/kane-yamal-and-mbappe-headline-30-man-ballon-dor-shortlist-2026-09-08",
          "note": "The 2026 shortlist, 8 September 2026."
        },
        {
          "label": "NBC Philadelphia — Spain tops Lionel Messi, Argentina 1-0 to win 2026 World Cup",
          "url": "https://www.nbcphiladelphia.com/world-cup/spain-argentina-final-messi-yamal-score/4435613/",
          "note": "19 July 2026 final, decided in extra time."
        },
        {
          "label": "Vultax Ballon room observation",
          "url": "https://app.vultax.com/api/rooms/ballon-dor",
          "note": "This article preserves the 24 October 13:43:42 UTC response; the endpoint itself continues updating."
        },
        {
          "label": "UEFA: ceremony time and location",
          "url": "https://support.tickets-ballondor.uefa.com/hc/en-us/articles/29825565046556-When-and-where-will-the-70th-Ballon-d-Or-ceremony-take-place",
          "note": "26 October 2026 at 20:00 GMT."
        },
        {
          "label": "Selected arithmetic checked in Lean 4.35.0",
          "url": "https://vultax.com/datasets/research-proof-library-2026-10-25/articles/ballon-dor-2026-odds-polymarket.md",
          "note": "Selected exact-rational calculations and displayed-value consistency checks, checked by Lean 4.35.0, Lean kernel replay and Nanoda. Not a proof of the underlying observations, statistical conclusions, legal claims or production code."
        },
        {
          "label": "Per-article scope records and Lean package",
          "url": "https://vultax.com/datasets/research-proof-library-public-2026-10-28/README.md",
          "note": "Historical scope records and selected Lean checks; the complete package is temporarily unavailable."
        }
      ],
      "measurement": {
        "kind": "observed",
        "temporalCoverage": "2024-10-28T00:00Z/2024-10-28T21:40Z",
        "population": "Yes prices of Vinícius Júnior and Rodri in Polymarket's 2024 Ballon d'Or Winner market",
        "methodology": "Minute price-history values, read every 10 minutes."
      },
      "id": "section-2024-the-favourite-who-lost-chart",
      "kind": "published-chart",
      "description": "Harry Kane won the 2026 Ballon d’Or after leading Polymarket at 67.1% a week out. Unlike 2024, his price jumped only in the minute of the announcement.",
      "articleUrl": "https://vultax.com/research/ballon-dor-2026-odds-polymarket",
      "sectionUrl": "https://vultax.com/research/ballon-dor-2026-odds-polymarket#section-2024-the-favourite-who-lost",
      "publishedAt": "2026-10-20",
      "modifiedAt": "2026-10-27",
      "version": "11304af25ed9fc787a8c18f4428a180edc549824977714bcc4c93f0a3c8770da",
      "isLive": false,
      "limitations": "Published research snapshots and calculations; these exports do not contain current quotes or live account data. Observation windows and populations are stated in the source captions and methodology. Missing metadata is unknown, not zero. A reading of public market prices and trades at the stated times, not a forecast by Vultax and not advice to trade. No wallet, account or trader is identified or accused.",
      "downloads": {
        "json": "https://vultax.com/research/ballon-dor-2026-odds-polymarket/data.json?dataset=section-2024-the-favourite-who-lost-chart",
        "csv": "https://vultax.com/research/ballon-dor-2026-odds-polymarket/data.csv?dataset=section-2024-the-favourite-who-lost-chart"
      }
    }
  ]
}