{ "schemaVersion": "vultax-public-research-data-v1", "articleUrl": "https://vultax.com/research/ballon-dor-2026-odds-polymarket", "datasets": [ { "title": "2024: the favourite who lost", "columns": [ { "name": "28 Oct 2024", "unit": null }, { "name": "Vinícius Júnior", "unit": null }, { "name": "Rodri", "unit": null } ], "rows": [ [ "13:45 UTC", "79.0%", "20.1%" ], [ "13:48 UTC", "80.5%", "19.6%" ], [ "13:51 UTC", "75.0%", "20.5%" ], [ "13:54 UTC", "73.0%", "22.9%" ], [ "13:57 UTC", "67.5%", "56.8%" ], [ "14:00 UTC", "62.5%", "32.6%" ], [ "14:03 UTC", "35.0%", "62.0%" ], [ "14:06 UTC", "25.5%", "66.0%" ], [ "14:09 UTC", "11.5%", "83.7%" ], [ "14:12 UTC", "8.5%", "90.2%" ], [ "14:15 UTC", "5.5%", "90.2%" ] ], "measurementContext": "Polymarket minute prices, every three minutes. The two prices can add to more or less than 100% because each is its own market.", "sources": [ { "label": "UEFA — Harry Kane wins 2026 men's Ballon d'Or", "url": "https://www.uefa.com/uefachampionsleague/news/02aa-21ec47378e70-b29defb43769-1000--harry-kane-wins-2026-men-s-ballon-d-or/", "note": "26 October 2026: the result and the men's top ten; Putellas won the women's award." }, { "label": "Polymarket — Ballon d'Or Winner 2026", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/ballon-dor-winner-2026", "note": "The 2026 market; prices read at 12:45 UTC on 19 October 2026 and minute prices and trades for 25 to 27 October read at 05:40 UTC on 27 October. Resolved to Harry Kane." }, { "label": "Polymarket — Ballon d'Or Top 3 Finish 2026", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/ballon-dor-top-3-finish-2026", "note": "Top-three prices in the 2026 table." }, { "label": "Polymarket — Women's Ballon d'Or Winner 2026", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/womens-ballon-dor-winner-2026", "note": "Resolved to Alexia Putellas." }, { "label": "Polymarket — Ballon d'Or Winner (2024)", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/ballon-dor-winner", "note": "13 archived markets for the 28 October 2024 ceremony. Price timestamps and actual platform settlement are distinct." }, { "label": "Polymarket — Ballon d'Or Winner 2025", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/ballon-dor-winner-2025", "note": "26 archived markets for the 22 September 2025 ceremony. Price timestamps and actual platform settlement are distinct." }, { "label": "Polymarket API — price history and trades", "url": "https://docs.polymarket.com/", "note": "Minute, hourly and daily Yes prices from the CLOB API; taker trades from the data API. Vultax computed the readings and sums." }, { "label": "Reuters, via Flashscore — Real Madrid will not travel to Ballon d'Or awards", "url": "https://www.flashscore.com/news/real-madrid-will-not-travel-to-ballon-d-or-awards-with-vinicius-reportedly-set-to-miss-out/6er1Ccoo", "note": "28 October 2024 report on the club cancelling its trip." }, { "label": "AFP, via The Peninsula — London to host 2026 Ballon d'Or in October", "url": "https://thepeninsulaqatar.com/article/28/05/2026/london-to-host-2026-ballon-dor-in-october-organisers", "note": "28 May 2026: ceremony on 26 October in London." }, { "label": "beIN Sports — Kane, Yamal and Mbappe headline 30-man Ballon d'Or shortlist", "url": "https://www.beinsports.com/en-us/soccer/mls/articles/kane-yamal-and-mbappe-headline-30-man-ballon-dor-shortlist-2026-09-08", "note": "The 2026 shortlist, 8 September 2026." }, { "label": "NBC Philadelphia — Spain tops Lionel Messi, Argentina 1-0 to win 2026 World Cup", "url": "https://www.nbcphiladelphia.com/world-cup/spain-argentina-final-messi-yamal-score/4435613/", "note": "19 July 2026 final, decided in extra time." }, { "label": "Vultax Ballon room observation", "url": "https://app.vultax.com/api/rooms/ballon-dor", "note": "This article preserves the 24 October 13:43:42 UTC response; the endpoint itself continues updating." }, { "label": "UEFA: ceremony time and location", "url": "https://support.tickets-ballondor.uefa.com/hc/en-us/articles/29825565046556-When-and-where-will-the-70th-Ballon-d-Or-ceremony-take-place", "note": "26 October 2026 at 20:00 GMT." }, { "label": "Selected arithmetic checked in Lean 4.35.0", "url": "https://vultax.com/datasets/research-proof-library-2026-10-25/articles/ballon-dor-2026-odds-polymarket.md", "note": "Selected exact-rational calculations and displayed-value consistency checks, checked by Lean 4.35.0, Lean kernel replay and Nanoda. Not a proof of the underlying observations, statistical conclusions, legal claims or production code." }, { "label": "Per-article scope records and Lean package", "url": "https://vultax.com/datasets/research-proof-library-public-2026-10-28/README.md", "note": "Historical scope records and selected Lean checks; the complete package is temporarily unavailable." } ], "measurement": { "kind": "observed", "temporalCoverage": "2024-10-28T13:45Z/2024-10-28T14:15Z", "population": "Vinícius Júnior and Rodri Yes prices", "methodology": "Last minute price at or before each time." }, "id": "section-2024-the-favourite-who-lost-table", "kind": "published-table", "description": "Harry Kane won the 2026 Ballon d’Or after leading Polymarket at 67.1% a week out. Unlike 2024, his price jumped only in the minute of the announcement.", "articleUrl": "https://vultax.com/research/ballon-dor-2026-odds-polymarket", "sectionUrl": "https://vultax.com/research/ballon-dor-2026-odds-polymarket#section-2024-the-favourite-who-lost", "publishedAt": "2026-10-20", "modifiedAt": "2026-10-27", "version": "96b48830a3f159b15ff99439445e773332015aafa670009f3e698e9564003692", "isLive": false, "limitations": "Published research snapshots and calculations; these exports do not contain current quotes or live account data. Observation windows and populations are stated in the source captions and methodology. Missing metadata is unknown, not zero. A reading of public market prices and trades at the stated times, not a forecast by Vultax and not advice to trade. No wallet, account or trader is identified or accused.", "downloads": { "json": "https://vultax.com/research/ballon-dor-2026-odds-polymarket/data.json?dataset=section-2024-the-favourite-who-lost-table", "csv": "https://vultax.com/research/ballon-dor-2026-odds-polymarket/data.csv?dataset=section-2024-the-favourite-who-lost-table" } } ] }