Vinícius Júnior's fall on the 2024 ceremony day: −72.0 pts

Harry Kane leads Polymarket's 2026 Ballon d'Or market at 67.1% a week before the London ceremony. In 2024 Vinícius Júnior was 89.5% a week out and lost: the price turned in 24 minutes on the afternoon of the ceremony. In 2025 Ousmane Dembélé was 85.2% and won. Lamine Yamal is second at 24.9%, and no one else is above 4%.

- Harry Kane, 2026 winner price: 67.1%
- The favourite a week before the ceremony: 89.5% and 85.2%
- Changes of leader in the 2026 market: 22

Observed 2026-10-19T12:45Z, population: Open markets in Polymarket's Ballon d'Or Winner 2026 and Top 3 Finish 2026 events.

Study: https://vultax.com/research/ballon-dor-2026-odds-polymarket
Markdown: https://vultax.com/research/ballon-dor-2026-odds-polymarket.md
Data: https://vultax.com/research/ballon-dor-2026-odds-polymarket/data.json
Share card: https://vultax.com/og/article/research/ballon-dor-2026-odds-polymarket
Live screen: https://app.vultax.com/predictions/topic/ballon-dor

Vultax Research, Ballon d'Or 2026 Odds: Kane 67% a Week Out, and the 89.5% Favourite Who Lost in 2024, 2026-10-20, https://vultax.com/research/ballon-dor-2026-odds-polymarket