{ "schemaVersion": "vultax-public-research-data-v1", "articleUrl": "https://vultax.com/research/best-ai-model-odds-polymarket", "datasets": [ { "title": "Every month-end check since December 2024", "columns": [ { "name": "Month-end", "unit": null }, { "name": "Top company", "unit": null }, { "name": "Favourite 14 days before", "unit": null }, { "name": "Favourite 7 days before", "unit": null }, { "name": "Winner, 1 day before", "unit": null } ], "rows": [ [ "December 2024", "Google", "not open", "Google 86.5%", "99.4%" ], [ "January 2025", "Google", "Google 90.0%", "Google 94.3%", "98.8%" ], [ "February 2025", "xAI", "Google 81.0%, missed", "xAI 79.9%", "86.1%" ], [ "March 2025", "Google", "xAI 86.0%, missed", "xAI 92.5%, missed", "98.2%" ], [ "April 2025", "Google", "Google 63.5%", "Google 77.0%", "98.2%" ], [ "May 2025", "Google", "Google 87.5%", "Google 91.0%", "97.9%" ], [ "June 2025", "Google", "Google 92.0%", "Google 94.5%", "99.4%" ], [ "July 2025", "Google", "Google 91.0%", "Google 94.0%", "97.7%" ], [ "August 2025", "Google", "Google 93.5%", "Google 97.0%", "99.6%" ], [ "September 2025", "Google", "Google 95.7%", "Google 98.7%", "99.5%" ], [ "October 2025", "Google", "Google 96.8%", "Google 97.6%", "99.6%" ], [ "November 2025", "Google", "Google 94.3%", "Google 98.2%", "99.8%" ], [ "December 2025", "Google", "Google 95.5%", "Google 97.1%", "99.2%" ], [ "January 2026", "Google", "Google 94.8%", "Google 98.4%", "99.8%" ], [ "February 2026", "Anthropic", "Anthropic 68.3%", "Anthropic 90.0%", "98.8%" ], [ "March 2026", "Anthropic", "Anthropic 92.8%", "Anthropic 95.6%", "99.8%" ], [ "April 2026", "Anthropic", "Anthropic 93.5%", "Anthropic 69.0%", "99.2%" ], [ "May 2026", "Anthropic", "Anthropic 91.5%", "Anthropic 98.1%", "99.7%" ], [ "June 2026", "Anthropic", "Anthropic 91.6%", "Anthropic 98.2%", "99.6%" ], [ "July 2026", "Anthropic", "Anthropic 96.8%", "Anthropic 98.8%", "99.9%" ], [ "August 2026", "Anthropic", "Anthropic 97.3%", "Anthropic 98.3%", "99.7%" ], [ "September 2026", "Anthropic", "Anthropic 96.2%", "Anthropic 98.5%", "99.5%" ] ], "measurementContext": "Polymarket Yes prices at the minute 14 days, 7 days and 1 day before each 12:00 Eastern check. 'Not open': the market opened later. The December 2024 and January 2025 markets named models (Gemini, Grok, ChatGPT, Claude); they are shown by company.", "sources": [ { "label": "Polymarket — Which company has the best AI model end of October?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/which-company-has-the-best-ai-model-end-of-october", "note": "Read at 21:16 UTC on 19 October 2026." }, { "label": "Polymarket — Which company has best AI model end of 2026?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-2026", "note": "Read at 21:16 UTC on 19 October 2026." }, { "label": "Polymarket — Which company has best AI model end of March? (2025)", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-march", "note": "Settled 31 March 2025. The other monthly markets follow the same pattern." }, { "label": "Polymarket API — price history", "url": "https://docs.polymarket.com/", "note": "Minute and daily Yes prices from the CLOB API. Vultax computed the checkpoint readings." }, { "label": "Arena — Text leaderboard, style control off", "url": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control", "note": "The resolution source named in the 2026 markets." }, { "label": "Google — Gemini 2.5: Our most intelligent AI model", "url": "https://blog.google/technology/google-deepmind/gemini-model-thinking-updates-march-2025/", "note": "25 March 2025." }, { "label": "xAI — Grok 3 Beta", "url": "https://x.ai/news/grok-3", "note": "19 February 2025." }, { "label": "Conditional formula proofs", "url": "https://vultax.com/datasets/research-proof-library-2026-10-25/scopes/692a1b5137d365feb78981f6187a79a9a32da42549b1bd4a6f82fa688413eea6.md", "note": "Conditional formulas only. The proofs cover the conditional mathematical formulas; article-specific measurements and numerical results have not been proved." }, { "label": "Per-article scope records and Lean package", "url": "https://vultax.com/datasets/research-proof-library-2026-10-25/README.md", "note": "Dated per-article scope records, Lean source, frozen permitted public inputs, checker logs and a reproducible ZIP. Covers only the scope stated in each record, not the whole study." } ], "measurement": { "kind": "observed", "temporalCoverage": "2024-12-18/2026-09-30", "population": "Polymarket's 22 monthly best AI model markets, settled", "methodology": "Last traded Yes price at or before each checkpoint minute, from the CLOB minute price history; the winner is the market that settled Yes." }, "id": "every-month-table", "kind": "published-table", "description": "Polymarket asks every month which company will top the LMArena text leaderboard. A week before each check from December 2024 to September 2026, the favourite won 21 times in 22. The one miss: Gemini 2.5 Pro, released six days before the March 2025 check.", "articleUrl": "https://vultax.com/research/best-ai-model-odds-polymarket", "sectionUrl": "https://vultax.com/research/best-ai-model-odds-polymarket#every-month", "publishedAt": "2026-10-26", "modifiedAt": "2026-10-26", "version": "632a4b2b731f88dcd9de7f28abb8cb55052ec7abff9fe2d49a902c54b0d59063", "isLive": false, "limitations": "Published research snapshots and calculations; these exports do not contain current quotes or live account data. Observation windows and populations are stated in the source captions and methodology. Missing metadata is unknown, not zero. A reading of public market prices at stated times, scored against settled results; not a forecast by Vultax, not a ranking of AI models and not advice to trade.", "downloads": { "json": "https://vultax.com/research/best-ai-model-odds-polymarket/data.json?dataset=every-month-table", "csv": "https://vultax.com/research/best-ai-model-odds-polymarket/data.csv?dataset=every-month-table" } }, { "title": "Best AI model at the end of March 2025: xAI and Google", "columns": [ { "name": "Category", "unit": null }, { "name": "Google", "unit": "%" }, { "name": "xAI", "unit": "%" } ], "rows": [ [ "1 Mar", 10.5, 46.5 ], [ "2 Mar", 8, 56.5 ], [ "3 Mar", 9, 60 ], [ "4 Mar", 8.5, 53.5 ], [ "5 Mar", 7, 50.5 ], [ "6 Mar", 5.5, 51.5 ], [ "7 Mar", 5, 51.5 ], [ "8 Mar", 6.5, 56 ], [ "9 Mar", 6, 58 ], [ "10 Mar", 7, 54.5 ], [ "11 Mar", 6.5, 54.5 ], [ "12 Mar", 6.5, 54.5 ], [ "13 Mar", 6.5, 67 ], [ "14 Mar", 6.5, 73.5 ], [ "15 Mar", 6, 75.5 ], [ "16 Mar", 6.5, 77.5 ], [ "17 Mar", 5.5, 84.5 ], [ "18 Mar", 4.5, 86.5 ], [ "19 Mar", 5, 89 ], [ "20 Mar", 2, 88.5 ], [ "21 Mar", 0.7, 90.5 ], [ "22 Mar", 0.7, 91 ], [ "23 Mar", 1, 92.5 ], [ "24 Mar", 4, 91 ], [ "25 Mar", 13.1, 80.5 ], [ "26 Mar", 94.3, 4.2 ], [ "27 Mar", 95, 1.4 ], [ "28 Mar", 97, 2.2 ], [ "29 Mar", 97.4, 1.7 ], [ "30 Mar", 98, 0.8 ], [ "31 Mar", 98.7, 0.4 ] ], "measurementContext": "Polymarket, 00:00 UTC readings, 1 to 31 March 2025. Percent.", "sources": [ { "label": "Polymarket — Which company has the best AI model end of October?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/which-company-has-the-best-ai-model-end-of-october", "note": "Read at 21:16 UTC on 19 October 2026." }, { "label": "Polymarket — Which company has best AI model end of 2026?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-2026", "note": "Read at 21:16 UTC on 19 October 2026." }, { "label": "Polymarket — Which company has best AI model end of March? (2025)", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-march", "note": "Settled 31 March 2025. The other monthly markets follow the same pattern." }, { "label": "Polymarket API — price history", "url": "https://docs.polymarket.com/", "note": "Minute and daily Yes prices from the CLOB API. Vultax computed the checkpoint readings." }, { "label": "Arena — Text leaderboard, style control off", "url": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control", "note": "The resolution source named in the 2026 markets." }, { "label": "Google — Gemini 2.5: Our most intelligent AI model", "url": "https://blog.google/technology/google-deepmind/gemini-model-thinking-updates-march-2025/", "note": "25 March 2025." }, { "label": "xAI — Grok 3 Beta", "url": "https://x.ai/news/grok-3", "note": "19 February 2025." }, { "label": "Conditional formula proofs", "url": "https://vultax.com/datasets/research-proof-library-2026-10-25/scopes/692a1b5137d365feb78981f6187a79a9a32da42549b1bd4a6f82fa688413eea6.md", "note": "Conditional formulas only. The proofs cover the conditional mathematical formulas; article-specific measurements and numerical results have not been proved." }, { "label": "Per-article scope records and Lean package", "url": "https://vultax.com/datasets/research-proof-library-2026-10-25/README.md", "note": "Dated per-article scope records, Lean source, frozen permitted public inputs, checker logs and a reproducible ZIP. Covers only the scope stated in each record, not the whole study." } ], "measurement": { "kind": "observed", "temporalCoverage": "2025-03-01/2025-03-31", "population": "xAI and Google Yes prices in Polymarket's March 2025 best AI model market", "methodology": "Price-history value at 00:00 UTC each day." }, "id": "march-2025-chart", "kind": "published-chart", "description": "Polymarket asks every month which company will top the LMArena text leaderboard. A week before each check from December 2024 to September 2026, the favourite won 21 times in 22. The one miss: Gemini 2.5 Pro, released six days before the March 2025 check.", "articleUrl": "https://vultax.com/research/best-ai-model-odds-polymarket", "sectionUrl": "https://vultax.com/research/best-ai-model-odds-polymarket#march-2025", "publishedAt": "2026-10-26", "modifiedAt": "2026-10-26", "version": "283bf99bc1202fcb306d423461dd4ca1f88afbea2b745cf31f57e0e2cc54c63d", "isLive": false, "limitations": "Published research snapshots and calculations; these exports do not contain current quotes or live account data. Observation windows and populations are stated in the source captions and methodology. Missing metadata is unknown, not zero. A reading of public market prices at stated times, scored against settled results; not a forecast by Vultax, not a ranking of AI models and not advice to trade.", "downloads": { "json": "https://vultax.com/research/best-ai-model-odds-polymarket/data.json?dataset=march-2025-chart", "csv": "https://vultax.com/research/best-ai-model-odds-polymarket/data.csv?dataset=march-2025-chart" } } ] }