{
  "schemaVersion": "vultax-public-research-data-v1",
  "articleUrl": "https://vultax.com/research/best-ai-model-odds-polymarket",
  "datasets": [
    {
      "title": "Best AI model at the end of March 2025: xAI and Google",
      "columns": [
        {
          "name": "Category",
          "unit": null
        },
        {
          "name": "Google",
          "unit": "%"
        },
        {
          "name": "xAI",
          "unit": "%"
        }
      ],
      "rows": [
        [
          "1 Mar",
          10.5,
          46.5
        ],
        [
          "2 Mar",
          8,
          56.5
        ],
        [
          "3 Mar",
          9,
          60
        ],
        [
          "4 Mar",
          8.5,
          53.5
        ],
        [
          "5 Mar",
          7,
          50.5
        ],
        [
          "6 Mar",
          5.5,
          51.5
        ],
        [
          "7 Mar",
          5,
          51.5
        ],
        [
          "8 Mar",
          6.5,
          56
        ],
        [
          "9 Mar",
          6,
          58
        ],
        [
          "10 Mar",
          7,
          54.5
        ],
        [
          "11 Mar",
          6.5,
          54.5
        ],
        [
          "12 Mar",
          6.5,
          54.5
        ],
        [
          "13 Mar",
          6.5,
          67
        ],
        [
          "14 Mar",
          6.5,
          73.5
        ],
        [
          "15 Mar",
          6,
          75.5
        ],
        [
          "16 Mar",
          6.5,
          77.5
        ],
        [
          "17 Mar",
          5.5,
          84.5
        ],
        [
          "18 Mar",
          4.5,
          86.5
        ],
        [
          "19 Mar",
          5,
          89
        ],
        [
          "20 Mar",
          2,
          88.5
        ],
        [
          "21 Mar",
          0.7,
          90.5
        ],
        [
          "22 Mar",
          0.7,
          91
        ],
        [
          "23 Mar",
          1,
          92.5
        ],
        [
          "24 Mar",
          4,
          91
        ],
        [
          "25 Mar",
          13.1,
          80.5
        ],
        [
          "26 Mar",
          94.3,
          4.2
        ],
        [
          "27 Mar",
          95,
          1.4
        ],
        [
          "28 Mar",
          97,
          2.2
        ],
        [
          "29 Mar",
          97.4,
          1.7
        ],
        [
          "30 Mar",
          98,
          0.8
        ],
        [
          "31 Mar",
          98.7,
          0.4
        ]
      ],
      "measurementContext": "Polymarket, 00:00 UTC readings, 1 to 31 March 2025. Percent.",
      "sources": [
        {
          "label": "Polymarket — Which company has the best AI model end of October?",
          "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/which-company-has-the-best-ai-model-end-of-october",
          "note": "Read at 21:16 UTC on 19 October 2026."
        },
        {
          "label": "Polymarket — Which company has best AI model end of 2026?",
          "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-2026",
          "note": "Read at 21:16 UTC on 19 October 2026."
        },
        {
          "label": "Polymarket — Which company has best AI model end of March? (2025)",
          "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-march",
          "note": "Settled 31 March 2025. The other monthly markets follow the same pattern."
        },
        {
          "label": "Polymarket API — price history",
          "url": "https://docs.polymarket.com/",
          "note": "Minute and daily Yes prices from the CLOB API. Vultax computed the checkpoint readings."
        },
        {
          "label": "Arena — Text leaderboard, style control off",
          "url": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control",
          "note": "The resolution source named in the 2026 markets."
        },
        {
          "label": "Google — Gemini 2.5: Our most intelligent AI model",
          "url": "https://blog.google/technology/google-deepmind/gemini-model-thinking-updates-march-2025/",
          "note": "25 March 2025."
        },
        {
          "label": "xAI — Grok 3 Beta",
          "url": "https://x.ai/news/grok-3",
          "note": "19 February 2025."
        },
        {
          "label": "Conditional formula proofs",
          "url": "https://vultax.com/datasets/research-proof-library-2026-10-25/scopes/692a1b5137d365feb78981f6187a79a9a32da42549b1bd4a6f82fa688413eea6.md",
          "note": "Conditional formulas only. The proofs cover the conditional mathematical formulas; article-specific measurements and numerical results have not been proved."
        },
        {
          "label": "Per-article scope records and Lean package",
          "url": "https://vultax.com/datasets/research-proof-library-2026-10-25/README.md",
          "note": "Dated per-article scope records, Lean source, frozen permitted public inputs, checker logs and a reproducible ZIP. Covers only the scope stated in each record, not the whole study."
        }
      ],
      "measurement": {
        "kind": "observed",
        "temporalCoverage": "2025-03-01/2025-03-31",
        "population": "xAI and Google Yes prices in Polymarket's March 2025 best AI model market",
        "methodology": "Price-history value at 00:00 UTC each day."
      },
      "id": "march-2025-chart",
      "kind": "published-chart",
      "description": "Polymarket asks every month which company will top the LMArena text leaderboard. A week before each check from December 2024 to September 2026, the favourite won 21 times in 22. The one miss: Gemini 2.5 Pro, released six days before the March 2025 check.",
      "articleUrl": "https://vultax.com/research/best-ai-model-odds-polymarket",
      "sectionUrl": "https://vultax.com/research/best-ai-model-odds-polymarket#march-2025",
      "publishedAt": "2026-10-26",
      "modifiedAt": "2026-10-26",
      "version": "283bf99bc1202fcb306d423461dd4ca1f88afbea2b745cf31f57e0e2cc54c63d",
      "isLive": false,
      "limitations": "Published research snapshots and calculations; these exports do not contain current quotes or live account data. Observation windows and populations are stated in the source captions and methodology. Missing metadata is unknown, not zero. A reading of public market prices at stated times, scored against settled results; not a forecast by Vultax, not a ranking of AI models and not advice to trade.",
      "downloads": {
        "json": "https://vultax.com/research/best-ai-model-odds-polymarket/data.json?dataset=march-2025-chart",
        "csv": "https://vultax.com/research/best-ai-model-odds-polymarket/data.csv?dataset=march-2025-chart"
      }
    }
  ]
}