Month-end checks the week-out favourite won: 21 of 22

Polymarket asks every month which company will top the LMArena text leaderboard. A week before each check from December 2024 to September 2026, the favourite won 21 times in 22. The one miss: Gemini 2.5 Pro, released six days before the March 2025 check. The one miss came from a release.

- xAI a week before the March 2025 check: 92.5%
- Month-ends with Anthropic on top: 8
- Google for October 2026, read 19 October: 73.1%

Observed 2024-12-18 to 2026-09-30, population: Polymarket's 22 monthly best AI model markets, settled.

Study: https://vultax.com/research/best-ai-model-odds-polymarket
Markdown: https://vultax.com/research/best-ai-model-odds-polymarket.md
Data: https://vultax.com/research/best-ai-model-odds-polymarket/data.json
Share card: https://vultax.com/og/article/research/best-ai-model-odds-polymarket
Live screen: https://app.vultax.com/predictions/topic/ai-race

Vultax Research, Best AI Model Odds: Polymarket's Favourite a Week Out Won 21 of 22 Month-End Checks, 2026-10-26, https://vultax.com/research/best-ai-model-odds-polymarket