{ "schemaVersion": "vultax-public-research-data-v1", "articleUrl": "https://vultax.com/research/best-polymarket-traders-leaderboards", "datasets": [ { "title": "Share of wallets profitable in July 2026, by trades in the month", "columns": [ { "name": "Category", "unit": null }, { "name": "Profitable wallets", "unit": "%" } ], "rows": [ [ "1", 12.2 ], [ "2–5", 40.8 ], [ "6–20", 63.7 ], [ "21–100", 63.2 ], [ "100+", 65.9 ] ], "measurementContext": "7,178 wallets. Activity is the first filter: one-trade wallets were profitable 12.2% of the time.", "sources": [ { "label": "Polymarket leaderboard", "url": "https://polymarket.com/leaderboard", "note": "Profit/Loss and Volume; four windows; no method; read 2026-09-05" }, { "label": "Polycopy: Best Polymarket Traders (September 2026)", "url": "https://polycopy.app/best-polymarket-traders", "note": "\"verified on-chain 30-day P&L\", the 23% baseline; read 2026-09-05" }, { "label": "Polymarket trading fees", "url": "https://docs.polymarket.com/trading/fees.md", "note": "Taker fee formula and rates" }, { "label": "Polymarket documentation", "url": "https://docs.polymarket.com/", "note": "Public data endpoints from which trades and positions are observed" }, { "label": "Vultax prediction desk — wallet statistics and coverage", "url": "https://vultax.com/features/prediction-desk", "note": "How wallets are discovered and how monthly realised P&L, hit rate and sample size are computed and shown" }, { "label": "Vultax methodology", "url": "https://vultax.com/methodology", "note": "Population separation, freshness and the explicit-coverage standard applied to prediction data" }, { "label": "Vultax: Best Polymarket Tools in 2026", "url": "https://vultax.com/research/best-polymarket-tools-2026", "note": "The full comparison" }, { "label": "Finance Magnates — Polymarket rolls out U.S. app after CFTC green light, starting with sports", "url": "https://www.financemagnates.com/forex/polymarket-rolls-out-us-mobile-app-after-cftc-green-light-starting-with-sports-events/", "note": "Polymarket US launched 2 December 2025 on the QCEX designation acquired for $112 million; the invite waitlist was removed in May 2026; iOS only at the time of writing." }, { "label": "Coinpaprika — Polymarket expands beyond prediction markets with 20x leverage perps (Sep 2026)", "url": "https://coinpaprika.com/news/polymarket-expands-beyond-prediction-markets/", "note": "Perpetual futures launched 3 September 2026 with up to 20x leverage; 67 markets within hours; U.S. traders barred. Kalshi's bitcoin perpetuals went live 3 June 2026." }, { "label": "DefiRate — Prediction markets top $11B in contract volume as sports, combos drive Kalshi growth (week of 24–30 Aug 2026)", "url": "https://defirate.com/news/volume-report-top-11b-contracts-sports-combos/", "note": "Kalshi at about 90% of combined contract volume in late August, driven by sports and multi-leg combos; the share is contract volume, not dollars at risk." }, { "label": "The Crypto Basic — Kalshi, Polymarket August volume drops 14.5% in first monthly decline in a year (2 Sep 2026)", "url": "https://thecryptobasic.com/2026/09/02/kalshi-polymarket-august-volume-drops-14-5-in-first-monthly-decline-in-a-year/", "note": "August 2026 was the first monthly decline in a year after the World Cup; Polymarket's August volume about $8.2 billion, down about 37% from July." }, { "label": "Gizmodo — Study finds around a quarter of Polymarket trades are fake (Columbia, Nov 2025)", "url": "https://gizmodo.com/study-finds-around-a-quarter-of-polymarket-trades-are-fake-2000683231", "note": "About 25% of Polymarket volume over three years flagged as wash trading by counterparty structure, peaking near 60% in December 2024; roughly one wallet in seven flagged; many flagged wallets made no profit." }, { "label": "CFTC — Enforcement Division issues Prediction Markets Advisory (25 Feb 2026)", "url": "https://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/9185-26", "note": "Insider trading, fraud and manipulation, wash sales and pre-arranged trading, and disruptive trading named as conduct the Commission polices on any designated contract market; cites a candidate trading his own race and a video editor trading on non-public channel information." }, { "label": "Carhart, M. M. (1997). On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance. Journal of Finance 52(1)", "url": "https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.1997.tb03808.x", "note": "The benchmark finding that fund performance persistence is short-lived and mostly explained by momentum and costs" }, { "label": "Mellers, B. et al. (2015). Identifying and Cultivating Superforecasters as a Method of Improving Probabilistic Predictions. Perspectives on Psychological Science 10(3)", "url": "https://doi.org/10.1177/1745691615577794", "note": "Evidence that a small top group of forecasters keeps its edge over time" }, { "label": "Barber, B. M., Odean, T. (2000). Trading Is Hazardous to Your Wealth. Journal of Finance 55(2)", "url": "https://doi.org/10.1111/0022-1082.00226", "note": "Why activity and outcomes are entangled in retail trading records" }, { "label": "Odean, T. (1998). Are Investors Reluctant to Realize Their Losses? Journal of Finance 53(5)", "url": "https://doi.org/10.1111/0022-1082.00072", "note": "The disposition effect: gains are realised readily, losses are held" }, { "label": "Wolfers, J., Zitzewitz, E. (2004). Prediction Markets. Journal of Economic Perspectives 18(2)", "url": "https://doi.org/10.1257/0895330041371321", "note": "How prediction-market prices aggregate information and who supplies liquidity" } ], "measurement": { "kind": "observed", "temporalCoverage": "2026-07", "population": "7,178 wallets", "methodology": "Share of wallets profitable in July 2026, grouped by number of trades in the month." }, "id": "section-activity-is-the-first-filter-chart", "kind": "published-chart", "description": "Who makes money on Polymarket, whether winners keep winning, and how five leaderboards count. The top 1% of winning wallets took 43.9% of realised gains; 124 of 137 active June winners were profitable again in July, against a 41–51% repeat rate across all wallets month to month.", "articleUrl": "https://vultax.com/research/best-polymarket-traders-leaderboards", "sectionUrl": "https://vultax.com/research/best-polymarket-traders-leaderboards#section-activity-is-the-first-filter", "publishedAt": "2026-09-11", "modifiedAt": "2026-09-16", "version": "6364106ffef07be43bf124bd3c4144e3447c06e5620c40d1021caf7bfeabff0d", "isLive": false, "limitations": "Published research snapshots and calculations; these exports do not contain current quotes or live account data. Observation windows and populations are stated in the source captions and methodology. Missing metadata is unknown, not zero. Leaderboard facts were read from vendor pages on the stated date and can change. Vultax figures describe realised P&L over short windows for wallets observed by its pipeline and are not a forecast of any wallet's results. Nothing here identifies a wallet's operator, and nothing here is financial advice.", "downloads": { "json": "https://vultax.com/research/best-polymarket-traders-leaderboards/data.json?dataset=section-activity-is-the-first-filter-chart", "csv": "https://vultax.com/research/best-polymarket-traders-leaderboards/data.csv?dataset=section-activity-is-the-first-filter-chart" } }, { "title": "Share of all realised gains taken by the top wallets", "columns": [ { "name": "Category", "unit": null }, { "name": "Share of gains", "unit": "%" } ], "rows": [ [ "Top 1% of winners (36 wallets)", 43.9 ], [ "Top 100 wallets", 58.7 ], [ "Top 10% of winners (351 wallets)", 79.5 ] ], "measurementContext": "9,902 wallets, 18 June to 14 July 2026. Gains total $783K.", "sources": [ { "label": "Polymarket leaderboard", "url": "https://polymarket.com/leaderboard", "note": "Profit/Loss and Volume; four windows; no method; read 2026-09-05" }, { "label": "Polycopy: Best Polymarket Traders (September 2026)", "url": "https://polycopy.app/best-polymarket-traders", "note": "\"verified on-chain 30-day P&L\", the 23% baseline; read 2026-09-05" }, { "label": "Polymarket trading fees", "url": "https://docs.polymarket.com/trading/fees.md", "note": "Taker fee formula and rates" }, { "label": "Polymarket documentation", "url": "https://docs.polymarket.com/", "note": "Public data endpoints from which trades and positions are observed" }, { "label": "Vultax prediction desk — wallet statistics and coverage", "url": "https://vultax.com/features/prediction-desk", "note": "How wallets are discovered and how monthly realised P&L, hit rate and sample size are computed and shown" }, { "label": "Vultax methodology", "url": "https://vultax.com/methodology", "note": "Population separation, freshness and the explicit-coverage standard applied to prediction data" }, { "label": "Vultax: Best Polymarket Tools in 2026", "url": "https://vultax.com/research/best-polymarket-tools-2026", "note": "The full comparison" }, { "label": "Finance Magnates — Polymarket rolls out U.S. app after CFTC green light, starting with sports", "url": "https://www.financemagnates.com/forex/polymarket-rolls-out-us-mobile-app-after-cftc-green-light-starting-with-sports-events/", "note": "Polymarket US launched 2 December 2025 on the QCEX designation acquired for $112 million; the invite waitlist was removed in May 2026; iOS only at the time of writing." }, { "label": "Coinpaprika — Polymarket expands beyond prediction markets with 20x leverage perps (Sep 2026)", "url": "https://coinpaprika.com/news/polymarket-expands-beyond-prediction-markets/", "note": "Perpetual futures launched 3 September 2026 with up to 20x leverage; 67 markets within hours; U.S. traders barred. Kalshi's bitcoin perpetuals went live 3 June 2026." }, { "label": "DefiRate — Prediction markets top $11B in contract volume as sports, combos drive Kalshi growth (week of 24–30 Aug 2026)", "url": "https://defirate.com/news/volume-report-top-11b-contracts-sports-combos/", "note": "Kalshi at about 90% of combined contract volume in late August, driven by sports and multi-leg combos; the share is contract volume, not dollars at risk." }, { "label": "The Crypto Basic — Kalshi, Polymarket August volume drops 14.5% in first monthly decline in a year (2 Sep 2026)", "url": "https://thecryptobasic.com/2026/09/02/kalshi-polymarket-august-volume-drops-14-5-in-first-monthly-decline-in-a-year/", "note": "August 2026 was the first monthly decline in a year after the World Cup; Polymarket's August volume about $8.2 billion, down about 37% from July." }, { "label": "Gizmodo — Study finds around a quarter of Polymarket trades are fake (Columbia, Nov 2025)", "url": "https://gizmodo.com/study-finds-around-a-quarter-of-polymarket-trades-are-fake-2000683231", "note": "About 25% of Polymarket volume over three years flagged as wash trading by counterparty structure, peaking near 60% in December 2024; roughly one wallet in seven flagged; many flagged wallets made no profit." }, { "label": "CFTC — Enforcement Division issues Prediction Markets Advisory (25 Feb 2026)", "url": "https://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/9185-26", "note": "Insider trading, fraud and manipulation, wash sales and pre-arranged trading, and disruptive trading named as conduct the Commission polices on any designated contract market; cites a candidate trading his own race and a video editor trading on non-public channel information." }, { "label": "Carhart, M. M. (1997). On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance. Journal of Finance 52(1)", "url": "https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.1997.tb03808.x", "note": "The benchmark finding that fund performance persistence is short-lived and mostly explained by momentum and costs" }, { "label": "Mellers, B. et al. (2015). Identifying and Cultivating Superforecasters as a Method of Improving Probabilistic Predictions. Perspectives on Psychological Science 10(3)", "url": "https://doi.org/10.1177/1745691615577794", "note": "Evidence that a small top group of forecasters keeps its edge over time" }, { "label": "Barber, B. M., Odean, T. (2000). Trading Is Hazardous to Your Wealth. Journal of Finance 55(2)", "url": "https://doi.org/10.1111/0022-1082.00226", "note": "Why activity and outcomes are entangled in retail trading records" }, { "label": "Odean, T. (1998). Are Investors Reluctant to Realize Their Losses? Journal of Finance 53(5)", "url": "https://doi.org/10.1111/0022-1082.00072", "note": "The disposition effect: gains are realised readily, losses are held" }, { "label": "Wolfers, J., Zitzewitz, E. (2004). Prediction Markets. Journal of Economic Perspectives 18(2)", "url": "https://doi.org/10.1257/0895330041371321", "note": "How prediction-market prices aggregate information and who supplies liquidity" } ], "measurement": { "kind": "observed", "temporalCoverage": "2026-06-18/2026-07-14", "population": "9,902 wallets", "methodology": "Share of all realised gains booked by the largest winning wallets, from closed trades in the window." }, "id": "section-most-wallets-closed-nothing-and-a-few-closed-a-lot-chart", "kind": "published-chart", "description": "Who makes money on Polymarket, whether winners keep winning, and how five leaderboards count. The top 1% of winning wallets took 43.9% of realised gains; 124 of 137 active June winners were profitable again in July, against a 41–51% repeat rate across all wallets month to month.", "articleUrl": "https://vultax.com/research/best-polymarket-traders-leaderboards", "sectionUrl": "https://vultax.com/research/best-polymarket-traders-leaderboards#section-most-wallets-closed-nothing-and-a-few-closed-a-lot", "publishedAt": "2026-09-11", "modifiedAt": "2026-09-16", "version": "c6235e0f40a32ef9afd1e38ae5ad2ab8f50199a72f92e69989097905e1238b54", "isLive": false, "limitations": "Published research snapshots and calculations; these exports do not contain current quotes or live account data. Observation windows and populations are stated in the source captions and methodology. Missing metadata is unknown, not zero. Leaderboard facts were read from vendor pages on the stated date and can change. Vultax figures describe realised P&L over short windows for wallets observed by its pipeline and are not a forecast of any wallet's results. Nothing here identifies a wallet's operator, and nothing here is financial advice.", "downloads": { "json": "https://vultax.com/research/best-polymarket-traders-leaderboards/data.json?dataset=section-most-wallets-closed-nothing-and-a-few-closed-a-lot-chart", "csv": "https://vultax.com/research/best-polymarket-traders-leaderboards/data.csv?dataset=section-most-wallets-closed-nothing-and-a-few-closed-a-lot-chart" } }, { "title": "Share of wallets with a realised gain, by markets traded", "columns": [ { "name": "Category", "unit": null }, { "name": "Wallets with a gain", "unit": "%" } ], "rows": [ [ "1 market", 19.9 ], [ "2–3", 39.9 ], [ "4–10", 60.7 ], [ "11+", 58.8 ] ], "measurementContext": "Breadth beats size: wallets across 4 to 10 markets closed a gain three times as often as one-market wallets.", "sources": [ { "label": "Polymarket leaderboard", "url": "https://polymarket.com/leaderboard", "note": "Profit/Loss and Volume; four windows; no method; read 2026-09-05" }, { "label": "Polycopy: Best Polymarket Traders (September 2026)", "url": "https://polycopy.app/best-polymarket-traders", "note": "\"verified on-chain 30-day P&L\", the 23% baseline; read 2026-09-05" }, { "label": "Polymarket trading fees", "url": "https://docs.polymarket.com/trading/fees.md", "note": "Taker fee formula and rates" }, { "label": "Polymarket documentation", "url": "https://docs.polymarket.com/", "note": "Public data endpoints from which trades and positions are observed" }, { "label": "Vultax prediction desk — wallet statistics and coverage", "url": "https://vultax.com/features/prediction-desk", "note": "How wallets are discovered and how monthly realised P&L, hit rate and sample size are computed and shown" }, { "label": "Vultax methodology", "url": "https://vultax.com/methodology", "note": "Population separation, freshness and the explicit-coverage standard applied to prediction data" }, { "label": "Vultax: Best Polymarket Tools in 2026", "url": "https://vultax.com/research/best-polymarket-tools-2026", "note": "The full comparison" }, { "label": "Finance Magnates — Polymarket rolls out U.S. app after CFTC green light, starting with sports", "url": "https://www.financemagnates.com/forex/polymarket-rolls-out-us-mobile-app-after-cftc-green-light-starting-with-sports-events/", "note": "Polymarket US launched 2 December 2025 on the QCEX designation acquired for $112 million; the invite waitlist was removed in May 2026; iOS only at the time of writing." }, { "label": "Coinpaprika — Polymarket expands beyond prediction markets with 20x leverage perps (Sep 2026)", "url": "https://coinpaprika.com/news/polymarket-expands-beyond-prediction-markets/", "note": "Perpetual futures launched 3 September 2026 with up to 20x leverage; 67 markets within hours; U.S. traders barred. Kalshi's bitcoin perpetuals went live 3 June 2026." }, { "label": "DefiRate — Prediction markets top $11B in contract volume as sports, combos drive Kalshi growth (week of 24–30 Aug 2026)", "url": "https://defirate.com/news/volume-report-top-11b-contracts-sports-combos/", "note": "Kalshi at about 90% of combined contract volume in late August, driven by sports and multi-leg combos; the share is contract volume, not dollars at risk." }, { "label": "The Crypto Basic — Kalshi, Polymarket August volume drops 14.5% in first monthly decline in a year (2 Sep 2026)", "url": "https://thecryptobasic.com/2026/09/02/kalshi-polymarket-august-volume-drops-14-5-in-first-monthly-decline-in-a-year/", "note": "August 2026 was the first monthly decline in a year after the World Cup; Polymarket's August volume about $8.2 billion, down about 37% from July." }, { "label": "Gizmodo — Study finds around a quarter of Polymarket trades are fake (Columbia, Nov 2025)", "url": "https://gizmodo.com/study-finds-around-a-quarter-of-polymarket-trades-are-fake-2000683231", "note": "About 25% of Polymarket volume over three years flagged as wash trading by counterparty structure, peaking near 60% in December 2024; roughly one wallet in seven flagged; many flagged wallets made no profit." }, { "label": "CFTC — Enforcement Division issues Prediction Markets Advisory (25 Feb 2026)", "url": "https://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/9185-26", "note": "Insider trading, fraud and manipulation, wash sales and pre-arranged trading, and disruptive trading named as conduct the Commission polices on any designated contract market; cites a candidate trading his own race and a video editor trading on non-public channel information." }, { "label": "Carhart, M. M. (1997). On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance. Journal of Finance 52(1)", "url": "https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.1997.tb03808.x", "note": "The benchmark finding that fund performance persistence is short-lived and mostly explained by momentum and costs" }, { "label": "Mellers, B. et al. (2015). Identifying and Cultivating Superforecasters as a Method of Improving Probabilistic Predictions. Perspectives on Psychological Science 10(3)", "url": "https://doi.org/10.1177/1745691615577794", "note": "Evidence that a small top group of forecasters keeps its edge over time" }, { "label": "Barber, B. M., Odean, T. (2000). Trading Is Hazardous to Your Wealth. Journal of Finance 55(2)", "url": "https://doi.org/10.1111/0022-1082.00226", "note": "Why activity and outcomes are entangled in retail trading records" }, { "label": "Odean, T. (1998). Are Investors Reluctant to Realize Their Losses? Journal of Finance 53(5)", "url": "https://doi.org/10.1111/0022-1082.00072", "note": "The disposition effect: gains are realised readily, losses are held" }, { "label": "Wolfers, J., Zitzewitz, E. (2004). Prediction Markets. Journal of Economic Perspectives 18(2)", "url": "https://doi.org/10.1257/0895330041371321", "note": "How prediction-market prices aggregate information and who supplies liquidity" } ], "measurement": { "kind": "observed", "temporalCoverage": "2026-06-18/2026-07-14", "population": "9,902 wallets", "methodology": "Share of wallets with a net realised gain, grouped by the number of markets each wallet closed trades in." }, "id": "section-breadth-and-results-chart", "kind": "published-chart", "description": "Who makes money on Polymarket, whether winners keep winning, and how five leaderboards count. The top 1% of winning wallets took 43.9% of realised gains; 124 of 137 active June winners were profitable again in July, against a 41–51% repeat rate across all wallets month to month.", "articleUrl": "https://vultax.com/research/best-polymarket-traders-leaderboards", "sectionUrl": "https://vultax.com/research/best-polymarket-traders-leaderboards#section-breadth-and-results", "publishedAt": "2026-09-11", "modifiedAt": "2026-09-16", "version": "cccc55f4433ab0b6aef689e916aca75ce46bb98264ac07fab5b0c752bc73db5a", "isLive": false, "limitations": "Published research snapshots and calculations; these exports do not contain current quotes or live account data. Observation windows and populations are stated in the source captions and methodology. Missing metadata is unknown, not zero. Leaderboard facts were read from vendor pages on the stated date and can change. Vultax figures describe realised P&L over short windows for wallets observed by its pipeline and are not a forecast of any wallet's results. Nothing here identifies a wallet's operator, and nothing here is financial advice.", "downloads": { "json": "https://vultax.com/research/best-polymarket-traders-leaderboards/data.json?dataset=section-breadth-and-results-chart", "csv": "https://vultax.com/research/best-polymarket-traders-leaderboards/data.csv?dataset=section-breadth-and-results-chart" } }, { "title": "The leaderboards, compared", "columns": [ { "name": "Board", "unit": null }, { "name": "Ranks by", "unit": null }, { "name": "Windows", "unit": null }, { "name": "Method stated?", "unit": null }, { "name": "Fees?", "unit": null }, { "name": "Refresh", "unit": null }, { "name": "Price", "unit": null } ], "rows": [ [ "[Polymarket leaderboard](https://polymarket.com/leaderboard) (official)", "\"Profit/Loss\" and \"Volume\"", "Today, Weekly, Monthly, All", "No definition on the page", "Not stated", "Live", "Free" ], [ "[Polycopy](https://polycopy.app/best-polymarket-traders)", "\"verified on-chain 30-day P&L\", plus a Copy Score on \"500K+ wallets tracked\"", "30-day; monthly dated page (September 2026)", "Partial: on-chain and window stated", "Not stated", "\"Updated daily\"", "Free; Premium $30/mo for live copy bots" ], [ "Hashdive", "Proprietary Smart Score on wallets; whale participation", "Not stated", "No; vendor site blocked automated reading, third-party listings describe a -100 to 100 score", "Not stated", "Not stated", "Freemium" ], [ "Laika Labs", "Leaderboard feeding a copy-trading product", "Not stated", "No; vendor site blocked automated reading", "Not stated", "Not stated", "Free account per third-party guides" ], [ "[Polymarket Analytics](https://polymarketanalytics.com/)", "Market statistics and history; trader data", "Not stated", "No", "Not stated", "Not stated", "Free" ], [ "Vultax trader analytics", "Measured trader sharpness across 8,082 profiled wallets and 5.2M+ performance snapshots", "Rolling windows", "Yes, with sample-size and basis-gap caveats rendered beside every rank", "Stated per view", "Continuous", "Free to browse; paid plans on [pricing](https://vultax.com/pricing)" ] ], "measurementContext": "Verified 5 September 2026. Polycopy's page states \"roughly 23%\" of wallets with five or more resolved trades show positive lifetime realised P&L; that is the only population figure on any board and it agrees in shape with the Vultax measurement above.", "sources": [ { "label": "Polymarket leaderboard", "url": "https://polymarket.com/leaderboard", "note": "Profit/Loss and Volume; four windows; no method; read 2026-09-05" }, { "label": "Polycopy: Best Polymarket Traders (September 2026)", "url": "https://polycopy.app/best-polymarket-traders", "note": "\"verified on-chain 30-day P&L\", the 23% baseline; read 2026-09-05" }, { "label": "Polymarket trading fees", "url": "https://docs.polymarket.com/trading/fees.md", "note": "Taker fee formula and rates" }, { "label": "Polymarket documentation", "url": "https://docs.polymarket.com/", "note": "Public data endpoints from which trades and positions are observed" }, { "label": "Vultax prediction desk — wallet statistics and coverage", "url": "https://vultax.com/features/prediction-desk", "note": "How wallets are discovered and how monthly realised P&L, hit rate and sample size are computed and shown" }, { "label": "Vultax methodology", "url": "https://vultax.com/methodology", "note": "Population separation, freshness and the explicit-coverage standard applied to prediction data" }, { "label": "Vultax: Best Polymarket Tools in 2026", "url": "https://vultax.com/research/best-polymarket-tools-2026", "note": "The full comparison" }, { "label": "Finance Magnates — Polymarket rolls out U.S. app after CFTC green light, starting with sports", "url": "https://www.financemagnates.com/forex/polymarket-rolls-out-us-mobile-app-after-cftc-green-light-starting-with-sports-events/", "note": "Polymarket US launched 2 December 2025 on the QCEX designation acquired for $112 million; the invite waitlist was removed in May 2026; iOS only at the time of writing." }, { "label": "Coinpaprika — Polymarket expands beyond prediction markets with 20x leverage perps (Sep 2026)", "url": "https://coinpaprika.com/news/polymarket-expands-beyond-prediction-markets/", "note": "Perpetual futures launched 3 September 2026 with up to 20x leverage; 67 markets within hours; U.S. traders barred. Kalshi's bitcoin perpetuals went live 3 June 2026." }, { "label": "DefiRate — Prediction markets top $11B in contract volume as sports, combos drive Kalshi growth (week of 24–30 Aug 2026)", "url": "https://defirate.com/news/volume-report-top-11b-contracts-sports-combos/", "note": "Kalshi at about 90% of combined contract volume in late August, driven by sports and multi-leg combos; the share is contract volume, not dollars at risk." }, { "label": "The Crypto Basic — Kalshi, Polymarket August volume drops 14.5% in first monthly decline in a year (2 Sep 2026)", "url": "https://thecryptobasic.com/2026/09/02/kalshi-polymarket-august-volume-drops-14-5-in-first-monthly-decline-in-a-year/", "note": "August 2026 was the first monthly decline in a year after the World Cup; Polymarket's August volume about $8.2 billion, down about 37% from July." }, { "label": "Gizmodo — Study finds around a quarter of Polymarket trades are fake (Columbia, Nov 2025)", "url": "https://gizmodo.com/study-finds-around-a-quarter-of-polymarket-trades-are-fake-2000683231", "note": "About 25% of Polymarket volume over three years flagged as wash trading by counterparty structure, peaking near 60% in December 2024; roughly one wallet in seven flagged; many flagged wallets made no profit." }, { "label": "CFTC — Enforcement Division issues Prediction Markets Advisory (25 Feb 2026)", "url": "https://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/9185-26", "note": "Insider trading, fraud and manipulation, wash sales and pre-arranged trading, and disruptive trading named as conduct the Commission polices on any designated contract market; cites a candidate trading his own race and a video editor trading on non-public channel information." }, { "label": "Carhart, M. M. (1997). On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance. Journal of Finance 52(1)", "url": "https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.1997.tb03808.x", "note": "The benchmark finding that fund performance persistence is short-lived and mostly explained by momentum and costs" }, { "label": "Mellers, B. et al. (2015). Identifying and Cultivating Superforecasters as a Method of Improving Probabilistic Predictions. Perspectives on Psychological Science 10(3)", "url": "https://doi.org/10.1177/1745691615577794", "note": "Evidence that a small top group of forecasters keeps its edge over time" }, { "label": "Barber, B. M., Odean, T. (2000). Trading Is Hazardous to Your Wealth. Journal of Finance 55(2)", "url": "https://doi.org/10.1111/0022-1082.00226", "note": "Why activity and outcomes are entangled in retail trading records" }, { "label": "Odean, T. (1998). Are Investors Reluctant to Realize Their Losses? Journal of Finance 53(5)", "url": "https://doi.org/10.1111/0022-1082.00072", "note": "The disposition effect: gains are realised readily, losses are held" }, { "label": "Wolfers, J., Zitzewitz, E. (2004). Prediction Markets. Journal of Economic Perspectives 18(2)", "url": "https://doi.org/10.1257/0895330041371321", "note": "How prediction-market prices aggregate information and who supplies liquidity" } ], "measurement": { "kind": null, "temporalCoverage": null, "population": null, "methodology": null }, "id": "section-the-leaderboards-compared-table", "kind": "published-table", "description": "Who makes money on Polymarket, whether winners keep winning, and how five leaderboards count. The top 1% of winning wallets took 43.9% of realised gains; 124 of 137 active June winners were profitable again in July, against a 41–51% repeat rate across all wallets month to month.", "articleUrl": "https://vultax.com/research/best-polymarket-traders-leaderboards", "sectionUrl": "https://vultax.com/research/best-polymarket-traders-leaderboards#section-the-leaderboards-compared", "publishedAt": "2026-09-11", "modifiedAt": "2026-09-16", "version": "85540559f27b5249db0f758950d87e0c91612476a1f670f59d289ee823839acd", "isLive": false, "limitations": "Published research snapshots and calculations; these exports do not contain current quotes or live account data. Observation windows and populations are stated in the source captions and methodology. Missing metadata is unknown, not zero. Leaderboard facts were read from vendor pages on the stated date and can change. Vultax figures describe realised P&L over short windows for wallets observed by its pipeline and are not a forecast of any wallet's results. Nothing here identifies a wallet's operator, and nothing here is financial advice.", "downloads": { "json": "https://vultax.com/research/best-polymarket-traders-leaderboards/data.json?dataset=section-the-leaderboards-compared-table", "csv": "https://vultax.com/research/best-polymarket-traders-leaderboards/data.csv?dataset=section-the-leaderboards-compared-table" } } ] }