{
  "schemaVersion": "vultax-public-research-data-v1",
  "articleUrl": "https://vultax.com/research/brazil-election-2026-polls-odds-results",
  "datasets": [
    {
      "title": "First round, 4 October 2026: share of valid votes",
      "columns": [
        {
          "name": "Category",
          "unit": null
        },
        {
          "name": "Share of valid votes",
          "unit": "%"
        }
      ],
      "rows": [
        [
          "Flávio Bolsonaro",
          47.03
        ],
        [
          "Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva",
          45.16
        ],
        [
          "All other candidates",
          7.81
        ]
      ],
      "measurementContext": "Superior Electoral Court (TSE), 99.99% of polling sections counted. Percent.",
      "sources": [
        {
          "label": "TSE: presidential runoff confirmation",
          "url": "https://www.tse.jus.br/comunicacao/noticias/2026/Outubro/flavio-bolsonaro-e-lula-vao-disputar-o-2o-turno-para-a-presidencia-da-republica",
          "note": "Published and updated 5 October 2026; first-round shares and the stated 99.99% reporting cutoff."
        },
        {
          "label": "TSE: how election results will be released",
          "url": "https://www.tse.jus.br/comunicacao/noticias/2026/Agosto/resultados-das-eleicoes-2026-poderao-ser-acompanhados-em-tempo-real",
          "note": "Updated 20 August 2026; result publication begins after 17:00 Brasília and continues as records arrive."
        },
        {
          "label": "TSE polling resources",
          "url": "https://www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/pesquisas-eleitorais/pesquisas-eleitorais",
          "note": "Official entry point for polling registration resources; consulted 19 October 2026."
        },
        {
          "label": "Polymarket: Brazil Presidential Election",
          "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/brazil-presidential-election",
          "note": "Contract context; current available prices belong in the linked terminal, with their observation times."
        }
      ],
      "measurement": {
        "kind": "reference",
        "temporalCoverage": "2026-10-04",
        "population": "Valid votes in the first round of Brazil's 2026 presidential election",
        "methodology": "TSE report of 5 October 2026. The third row is 100 minus the two finalists' shares."
      },
      "id": "first-round-chart",
      "kind": "published-chart",
      "description": "Brazil votes again on 25 October. Follow the Lula–Flávio Bolsonaro runoff with dated polling, market odds and links to official TSE results.",
      "articleUrl": "https://vultax.com/research/brazil-election-2026-polls-odds-results",
      "sectionUrl": "https://vultax.com/research/brazil-election-2026-polls-odds-results#first-round",
      "publishedAt": "2026-10-19",
      "modifiedAt": "2026-10-20",
      "version": "1fac6c7bfc644760ee57b2497c76efc9d2f3a82d6240861f232d3ec0e1e1863b",
      "isLive": false,
      "limitations": "Published research snapshots and calculations; these exports do not contain current quotes or live account data. Observation windows and populations are stated in the source captions and methodology. Missing metadata is unknown, not zero. Election context checked on 19 October 2026. Quoted surveys and market readings retain their own dates; the terminal links show the current available data.",
      "downloads": {
        "json": "https://vultax.com/research/brazil-election-2026-polls-odds-results/data.json?dataset=first-round-chart",
        "csv": "https://vultax.com/research/brazil-election-2026-polls-odds-results/data.csv?dataset=first-round-chart"
      }
    }
  ]
}