{
  "schemaVersion": "vultax-public-research-data-v1",
  "articleUrl": "https://vultax.com/research/brazil-election-2026-polls-vs-prediction-markets",
  "datasets": [
    {
      "title": "Polymarket price to win Brazil's presidency, August to October 2026",
      "columns": [
        {
          "name": "Category",
          "unit": null
        },
        {
          "name": "Flávio Bolsonaro",
          "unit": "¢"
        },
        {
          "name": "Lula",
          "unit": "¢"
        }
      ],
      "rows": [
        [
          "1 Aug",
          24.4,
          64.5
        ],
        [
          "2 Aug",
          24.7,
          66.5
        ],
        [
          "3 Aug",
          24.9,
          65.5
        ],
        [
          "4 Aug",
          26.6,
          65.5
        ],
        [
          "5 Aug",
          25.9,
          64.5
        ],
        [
          "6 Aug",
          26.6,
          64.5
        ],
        [
          "7 Aug",
          26.9,
          64.5
        ],
        [
          "8 Aug",
          27,
          64.5
        ],
        [
          "9 Aug",
          27,
          64.5
        ],
        [
          "10 Aug",
          27.2,
          63.5
        ],
        [
          "11 Aug",
          27.3,
          63.5
        ],
        [
          "12 Aug",
          27.1,
          63.5
        ],
        [
          "13 Aug",
          28.2,
          63.5
        ],
        [
          "14 Aug",
          28.3,
          63.5
        ],
        [
          "15 Aug",
          28.4,
          63.5
        ],
        [
          "16 Aug",
          28.6,
          65.5
        ],
        [
          "17 Aug",
          29.4,
          66.5
        ],
        [
          "18 Aug",
          31.4,
          64.5
        ],
        [
          "19 Aug",
          32.8,
          63.5
        ],
        [
          "20 Aug",
          32.6,
          63.5
        ],
        [
          "21 Aug",
          32.8,
          63.5
        ],
        [
          "22 Aug",
          33.5,
          62.5
        ],
        [
          "23 Aug",
          33.7,
          62.5
        ],
        [
          "24 Aug",
          32.9,
          62.5
        ],
        [
          "25 Aug",
          35.2,
          62.5
        ],
        [
          "26 Aug",
          35,
          62.5
        ],
        [
          "27 Aug",
          35.6,
          62.5
        ],
        [
          "28 Aug",
          35.9,
          57.5
        ],
        [
          "29 Aug",
          37.6,
          57.5
        ],
        [
          "30 Aug",
          40.3,
          55.5
        ],
        [
          "31 Aug",
          41.4,
          55.5
        ],
        [
          "1 Sep",
          39.3,
          55.5
        ],
        [
          "2 Sep",
          39,
          55.5
        ],
        [
          "3 Sep",
          40.8,
          55.5
        ],
        [
          "4 Sep",
          44,
          54.5
        ],
        [
          "5 Sep",
          40.2,
          55.5
        ],
        [
          "6 Sep",
          39.9,
          55.5
        ],
        [
          "7 Sep",
          40.3,
          57.5
        ],
        [
          "8 Sep",
          39.9,
          58.5
        ],
        [
          "9 Sep",
          45.4,
          52.5
        ],
        [
          "10 Sep",
          46.4,
          52.5
        ],
        [
          "11 Sep",
          52.5,
          45.5
        ],
        [
          "12 Sep",
          52.2,
          45.5
        ],
        [
          "13 Sep",
          50.6,
          47
        ],
        [
          "14 Sep",
          50.7,
          47.5
        ],
        [
          "15 Sep",
          51.9,
          45.5
        ],
        [
          "16 Sep",
          53.1,
          46.5
        ],
        [
          "17 Sep",
          54.4,
          44.5
        ],
        [
          "18 Sep",
          54.4,
          44.5
        ],
        [
          "19 Sep",
          56.6,
          42.5
        ],
        [
          "20 Sep",
          56.8,
          40.5
        ],
        [
          "21 Sep",
          58.5,
          41.5
        ],
        [
          "22 Sep",
          60.6,
          39.5
        ],
        [
          "23 Sep",
          58.6,
          41.5
        ],
        [
          "24 Sep",
          58.2,
          41.5
        ],
        [
          "25 Sep",
          56.1,
          43.5
        ],
        [
          "26 Sep",
          57.4,
          42.5
        ],
        [
          "27 Sep",
          57.2,
          43.5
        ],
        [
          "28 Sep",
          57.9,
          42.5
        ],
        [
          "29 Sep",
          58,
          41.5
        ],
        [
          "30 Sep",
          58.4,
          40.5
        ],
        [
          "1 Oct",
          61.2,
          38.5
        ],
        [
          "2 Oct",
          60.5,
          39.5
        ],
        [
          "3 Oct",
          56.6,
          43.5
        ],
        [
          "4 Oct",
          64.2,
          35.5
        ],
        [
          "5 Oct",
          83.5,
          15.5
        ],
        [
          "6 Oct",
          83.6,
          15.5
        ],
        [
          "7 Oct",
          84.6,
          15.5
        ],
        [
          "8 Oct",
          83.8,
          15.5
        ],
        [
          "9 Oct",
          85.7,
          13.5
        ],
        [
          "10 Oct",
          89,
          11.5
        ],
        [
          "11 Oct",
          88,
          11.5
        ],
        [
          "12 Oct",
          86.1,
          12.5
        ],
        [
          "13 Oct",
          87.1,
          12.5
        ],
        [
          "14 Oct",
          86.2,
          13.5
        ],
        [
          "15 Oct",
          83.4,
          13.5
        ],
        [
          "16 Oct",
          79.6,
          20.5
        ],
        [
          "17 Oct",
          77.7,
          22.5
        ],
        [
          "18 Oct",
          78.2,
          22.5
        ],
        [
          "19 Oct",
          79.2,
          20.5
        ]
      ],
      "measurementContext": "Yes contracts in Polymarket's Brazil Presidential Election market, daily readings at 00:00 UTC, 1 August to 19 October 2026. Cents.",
      "sources": [
        {
          "label": "Datafolha: national presidential runoff survey",
          "url": "https://datafolha.folha.uol.com.br/eleicoes/2026/10/flavio-bolsonaro-pl-tem-47-e-tem-empate-tecnico-com-lula-pt-que-aparece-com-45.shtml",
          "note": "Released 16 October 2026; fieldwork 13–14 October; TSE BR-00466/2026. Pollster's primary release."
        },
        {
          "label": "Polymarket: Brazil Presidential Election",
          "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/brazil-presidential-election",
          "note": "Public page checked 19 October 2026. Displayed Yes offers: Flávio Bolsonaro 77¢, Lula 24¢. A page observation, not a guaranteed fill."
        }
      ],
      "measurement": {
        "kind": "observed",
        "temporalCoverage": "2026-08-01/2026-10-19",
        "population": "Yes prices of Flávio Bolsonaro and Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva",
        "methodology": "Polymarket price-history API, one daily point per UTC day, read 19 October 2026."
      },
      "id": "short-answer-chart",
      "kind": "published-chart",
      "description": "A 51% vote share and a 77¢ election contract answer different questions. A dated Brazil example explains polls, probabilities, spreads and uncertainty.",
      "articleUrl": "https://vultax.com/research/brazil-election-2026-polls-vs-prediction-markets",
      "sectionUrl": "https://vultax.com/research/brazil-election-2026-polls-vs-prediction-markets#short-answer",
      "publishedAt": "2026-10-19",
      "modifiedAt": "2026-10-20",
      "version": "d99f8333db1b82510a28b3cc3b28089932608365e5be6470793a229119c030a8",
      "isLive": false,
      "limitations": "Published research snapshots and calculations; these exports do not contain current quotes or live account data. Observation windows and populations are stated in the source captions and methodology. Missing metadata is unknown, not zero. Election context checked on 19 October 2026. Quoted surveys and market readings retain their own dates; the terminal links show the current available data.",
      "downloads": {
        "json": "https://vultax.com/research/brazil-election-2026-polls-vs-prediction-markets/data.json?dataset=short-answer-chart",
        "csv": "https://vultax.com/research/brazil-election-2026-polls-vs-prediction-markets/data.csv?dataset=short-answer-chart"
      }
    },
    {
      "title": "A named poll, with the denominator visible",
      "columns": [
        {
          "name": "Measure",
          "unit": null
        },
        {
          "name": "Flávio Bolsonaro",
          "unit": null
        },
        {
          "name": "Lula",
          "unit": null
        }
      ],
      "rows": [
        [
          "All-response voting intention",
          "47%",
          "45%"
        ],
        [
          "Pollster's valid-vote presentation",
          "51%",
          "49%"
        ]
      ],
      "measurementContext": "Source: Datafolha, released 16 October 2026; fieldwork 13–14 October. These are survey shares, not probabilities of winning.",
      "sources": [
        {
          "label": "Datafolha: national presidential runoff survey",
          "url": "https://datafolha.folha.uol.com.br/eleicoes/2026/10/flavio-bolsonaro-pl-tem-47-e-tem-empate-tecnico-com-lula-pt-que-aparece-com-45.shtml",
          "note": "Released 16 October 2026; fieldwork 13–14 October; TSE BR-00466/2026. Pollster's primary release."
        },
        {
          "label": "Polymarket: Brazil Presidential Election",
          "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/brazil-presidential-election",
          "note": "Public page checked 19 October 2026. Displayed Yes offers: Flávio Bolsonaro 77¢, Lula 24¢. A page observation, not a guaranteed fill."
        }
      ],
      "measurement": {
        "kind": "observed",
        "temporalCoverage": "13–14 October 2026",
        "population": "2,520 respondents interviewed in person in 153 municipalities",
        "methodology": "One Datafolha survey; all-response and valid-vote denominators as reported by the institute. No polling average or forecast inferred."
      },
      "id": "dated-poll-table",
      "kind": "published-table",
      "description": "A 51% vote share and a 77¢ election contract answer different questions. A dated Brazil example explains polls, probabilities, spreads and uncertainty.",
      "articleUrl": "https://vultax.com/research/brazil-election-2026-polls-vs-prediction-markets",
      "sectionUrl": "https://vultax.com/research/brazil-election-2026-polls-vs-prediction-markets#dated-poll",
      "publishedAt": "2026-10-19",
      "modifiedAt": "2026-10-20",
      "version": "9202bb0c96113e75b7e2e92c09b854a7565ec37efafd37673a6894016849904c",
      "isLive": false,
      "limitations": "Published research snapshots and calculations; these exports do not contain current quotes or live account data. Observation windows and populations are stated in the source captions and methodology. Missing metadata is unknown, not zero. Election context checked on 19 October 2026. Quoted surveys and market readings retain their own dates; the terminal links show the current available data.",
      "downloads": {
        "json": "https://vultax.com/research/brazil-election-2026-polls-vs-prediction-markets/data.json?dataset=dated-poll-table",
        "csv": "https://vultax.com/research/brazil-election-2026-polls-vs-prediction-markets/data.csv?dataset=dated-poll-table"
      }
    }
  ]
}