Datafolha valid-vote shares: 50% / 50%

Datafolha’s 20–22 October poll and a dated market snapshot answer different questions. Read vote shares, win probabilities and the model’s limits. Datafolha’s newer national release reports 50% of valid-vote responses for each candidate.

- Flávio Bolsonaro, market checkpoint: 80.2¢

Observed 2026-10-20 to 2026-10-24, population: One identified national poll, two contract observations and one experimental model output; not an exhaustive polling average.

Study: https://vultax.com/research/brazil-election-2026-polls-vs-prediction-markets
Markdown: https://vultax.com/research/brazil-election-2026-polls-vs-prediction-markets.md
Data: https://vultax.com/research/brazil-election-2026-polls-vs-prediction-markets/data.json
Share card: https://vultax.com/og/article/research/brazil-election-2026-polls-vs-prediction-markets
Market record: https://app.vultax.com/predictions/topic/brazil-election-2026

Vultax Research Team, Brazil Election Polls vs Polymarket Odds: What the Numbers Mean, 2026-10-25, https://vultax.com/research/brazil-election-2026-polls-vs-prediction-markets