{ "schemaVersion": "vultax-public-research-data-v1", "articleUrl": "https://vultax.com/research/brazil-election-2026-results-time-tse", "datasets": [ { "title": "First-round night: Polymarket price for Flávio Bolsonaro, minute by minute", "columns": [ { "name": "Category", "unit": null }, { "name": "Flávio Bolsonaro", "unit": "¢" } ], "rows": [ [ "19:50", 64.45 ], [ "19:51", 64.45 ], [ "19:52", 64.45 ], [ "19:53", 64.45 ], [ "19:54", 64.45 ], [ "19:55", 64.35 ], [ "19:56", 64.35 ], [ "19:57", 64.35 ], [ "19:58", 64.35 ], [ "19:59", 64.45 ], [ "20:00", 63.65 ], [ "20:01", 63.8 ], [ "20:02", 63.45 ], [ "20:03", 63.7 ], [ "20:04", 62.95 ], [ "20:05", 62.9 ], [ "20:06", 62.9 ], [ "20:07", 62.9 ], [ "20:08", 62.95 ], [ "20:09", 62.95 ], [ "20:10", 62.95 ], [ "20:11", 62.95 ], [ "20:12", 63.45 ], [ "20:13", 63.45 ], [ "20:14", 63.6 ], [ "20:15", 63.45 ], [ "20:16", 63.35 ], [ "20:17", 63.5 ], [ "20:18", 63.45 ], [ "20:19", 63.4 ], [ "20:20", 63.4 ], [ "20:21", 63.4 ], [ "20:22", 64.3 ], [ "20:23", 65.95 ], [ "20:24", 66.55 ], [ "20:25", 66.75 ], [ "20:26", 68.15 ], [ "20:27", 69.2 ], [ "20:28", 71.4 ], [ "20:29", 71.35 ], [ "20:30", 72.15 ], [ "20:31", 70.6 ], [ "20:32", 71.1 ], [ "20:33", 71.7 ], [ "20:34", 73.05 ], [ "20:35", 71.75 ], [ "20:36", 71.55 ], [ "20:37", 71.9 ], [ "20:38", 73.55 ], [ "20:39", 74.25 ], [ "20:40", 74.25 ], [ "20:41", 75.55 ], [ "20:42", 76.5 ], [ "20:43", 77.5 ], [ "20:44", 77.7 ], [ "20:45", 77.3 ], [ "20:46", 79.55 ], [ "20:47", 79.15 ], [ "20:48", 77.8 ], [ "20:49", 78.2 ], [ "20:50", 79.35 ], [ "20:51", 79.95 ], [ "20:52", 79.95 ], [ "20:53", 80.25 ], [ "20:54", 81.25 ], [ "20:55", 82.4 ], [ "20:56", 82.6 ], [ "20:57", 83.1 ], [ "20:58", 83.75 ], [ "20:59", 85.45 ], [ "21:00", 85.15 ], [ "21:01", 84.1 ], [ "21:02", 84.2 ], [ "21:03", 83.95 ], [ "21:04", 82.4 ], [ "21:05", 81.95 ], [ "21:06", 82.95 ], [ "21:07", 82.55 ], [ "21:08", 82.05 ], [ "21:09", 81.5 ], [ "21:10", 81.5 ], [ "21:11", 81.1 ], [ "21:12", 81.4 ], [ "21:13", 81.25 ], [ "21:14", 81.2 ], [ "21:15", 81.3 ], [ "21:16", 81.5 ], [ "21:17", 82.15 ], [ "21:18", 82.25 ], [ "21:19", 82.25 ], [ "21:20", 83.1 ], [ "21:21", 82.25 ], [ "21:22", 83.55 ], [ "21:23", 83.7 ], [ "21:24", 84.35 ], [ "21:25", 84.35 ], [ "21:26", 84.4 ], [ "21:27", 85.15 ], [ "21:28", 85.05 ], [ "21:29", 85.05 ], [ "21:30", 85.05 ] ], "measurementContext": "Yes contract in Polymarket's Brazil Presidential Election market, 19:50 to 21:30 UTC on 4 October 2026. Cents.", "sources": [ { "label": "TSE: official release timing and results channels", "url": "https://www.tse.jus.br/comunicacao/noticias/2026/Agosto/resultados-das-eleicoes-2026-poderao-ser-acompanhados-em-tempo-real", "note": "Updated 20 August 2026. Official result publication starts after 17:00 Brasília for both rounds, with updates as records are processed." }, { "label": "Official TSE results portal", "url": "https://resultados.tse.jus.br/oficial/app/index.html", "note": "Primary source for the count; select the year, office, round and geographic scope." }, { "label": "IANA Time Zone Database", "url": "https://www.iana.org/time-zones", "note": "Time-zone conversion reference. Conversions checked using the system zoneinfo database for 25 October 2026." }, { "label": "Selected arithmetic checked in Lean 4.35.0", "url": "https://vultax.com/datasets/research-proof-library-2026-10-25/articles/brazil-election-2026-results-time-tse.md", "note": "Selected exact-rational calculations and displayed-value consistency checks, checked by Lean 4.35.0, Lean kernel replay and Nanoda. Not a proof of the underlying observations, statistical conclusions, legal claims or production code." }, { "label": "Per-article scope records and Lean package", "url": "https://vultax.com/datasets/research-proof-library-2026-10-25/README.md", "note": "Dated per-article scope records, Lean source, frozen permitted public inputs, checker logs and a reproducible ZIP. Covers only the scope stated in each record, not the whole study." } ], "measurement": { "kind": "observed", "temporalCoverage": "2026-10-04T19:50Z/2026-10-04T21:30Z", "population": "Yes price of Flávio Bolsonaro", "methodology": "Polymarket price-history API at one-minute fidelity, read 19 October 2026." }, "id": "partial-count-chart", "kind": "published-chart", "description": "Brazil's runoff is on 25 October. Official results begin after 17:00 Brasília. Check UTC and local times, the TSE portal and partial-count labels.", "articleUrl": "https://vultax.com/research/brazil-election-2026-results-time-tse", "sectionUrl": "https://vultax.com/research/brazil-election-2026-results-time-tse#partial-count", "publishedAt": "2026-10-19", "modifiedAt": "2026-10-25", "version": "a77d5132c9d2cb4496a168cd9abeda3eaff15dcc529cf6d3da35172f12042e50", "isLive": false, "limitations": "Published research snapshots and calculations; these exports do not contain current quotes or live account data. Observation windows and populations are stated in the source captions and methodology. Missing metadata is unknown, not zero. Election context checked on 19 October 2026. Quoted surveys and market readings retain their own dates; the terminal links show the current available data.", "downloads": { "json": "https://vultax.com/research/brazil-election-2026-results-time-tse/data.json?dataset=partial-count-chart", "csv": "https://vultax.com/research/brazil-election-2026-results-time-tse/data.csv?dataset=partial-count-chart" } } ] }