{
  "schemaVersion": "vultax-public-research-data-v1",
  "articleUrl": "https://vultax.com/research/ecb-rate-decision-odds-polymarket",
  "datasets": [
    {
      "title": "Price of the ECB's decision a week before the statement",
      "columns": [
        {
          "name": "Category",
          "unit": null
        },
        {
          "name": "Decision the ECB took, 7 days before",
          "unit": "%"
        }
      ],
      "rows": [
        [
          "Oct 24",
          95.5
        ],
        [
          "Dec 24",
          87
        ],
        [
          "Jan 25",
          95.1
        ],
        [
          "Mar 25",
          96.4
        ],
        [
          "Apr 25",
          95.5
        ],
        [
          "Jun 25",
          96.1
        ],
        [
          "Jul 25",
          97.3
        ],
        [
          "Sep 25",
          98.2
        ],
        [
          "Oct 25",
          98.2
        ],
        [
          "Dec 25",
          99.4
        ],
        [
          "Feb 26",
          99.6
        ],
        [
          "Apr 26",
          98.7
        ],
        [
          "Jun 26",
          98.5
        ],
        [
          "Jul 26",
          98.9
        ],
        [
          "Sep 26",
          99.3
        ]
      ],
      "measurementContext": "Polymarket, 7 days before each of 15 meetings, October 2024 to September 2026. Percent.",
      "sources": [
        {
          "label": "European Central Bank — Key ECB interest rates",
          "url": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html",
          "note": "Decisions and rates with effect from each date, read 19 October 2026."
        },
        {
          "label": "European Central Bank — Monetary policy meeting calendar",
          "url": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html",
          "note": "Meeting dates, including 29 October and 17 December 2026."
        },
        {
          "label": "Polymarket — ECB Interest Rates: October 2026",
          "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/ecb-interest-rates-october-2026-20260723225848778",
          "note": "Read at 20:55 UTC on 19 October 2026."
        },
        {
          "label": "Polymarket — ECB Interest Rates: December 2026",
          "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/ecb-interest-rates-december-2026",
          "note": "Read at 20:55 UTC on 19 October 2026."
        },
        {
          "label": "Polymarket — ECB Interest Rates: June 2026",
          "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/ecb-interest-rates-june-2026",
          "note": "Settled 11 June 2026."
        },
        {
          "label": "Polymarket — ECB Interest Rates: September 2026",
          "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/ecb-interest-rates-september-2026-20260616222636097",
          "note": "Settled 10 September 2026."
        },
        {
          "label": "Polymarket — European Central Bank cuts rates in Oct meeting?",
          "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/european-central-bank-cuts-rates-in-oct-meeting",
          "note": "The October 2024 market."
        },
        {
          "label": "Polymarket API — price history",
          "url": "https://docs.polymarket.com/",
          "note": "Minute and daily Yes prices from the CLOB API. Vultax computed the checkpoint readings and scores."
        },
        {
          "label": "Conditional formula proofs",
          "url": "https://vultax.com/datasets/research-proof-library-2026-10-25/scopes/141d4e12c5b28330e20e6d28e03c60aa357b19ad7d692ea615beed45187b111a.md",
          "note": "Conditional formulas only. The proofs cover the conditional mathematical formulas; article-specific measurements and numerical results have not been proved."
        },
        {
          "label": "Per-article scope records and Lean package",
          "url": "https://vultax.com/datasets/research-proof-library-2026-10-25/README.md",
          "note": "Dated per-article scope records, Lean source, frozen permitted public inputs, checker logs and a reproducible ZIP. Covers only the scope stated in each record, not the whole study."
        }
      ],
      "measurement": {
        "kind": "observed",
        "temporalCoverage": "2024-10-10/2026-09-03",
        "population": "The outcome contract that matched the decision",
        "methodology": "Last traded Yes price at the minute 7 days before the statement."
      },
      "id": "scorecard-chart",
      "kind": "published-chart",
      "description": "A week before each ECB decision from October 2024 to September 2026, Polymarket's favourite was the decision the ECB took, at a median 98.2%. A month out it missed twice. Both 2026 rate rises were priced above 98% a week ahead.",
      "articleUrl": "https://vultax.com/research/ecb-rate-decision-odds-polymarket",
      "sectionUrl": "https://vultax.com/research/ecb-rate-decision-odds-polymarket#scorecard",
      "publishedAt": "2026-10-28",
      "modifiedAt": "2026-10-28",
      "version": "34c610d3d0e33da057c934f45e932b1d985773e04c5629eca9a7d9aa12325f34",
      "isLive": false,
      "limitations": "Published research snapshots and calculations; these exports do not contain current quotes or live account data. Observation windows and populations are stated in the source captions and methodology. Missing metadata is unknown, not zero. A reading of public market prices at stated times, scored against the published decisions; not a forecast by Vultax and not advice to trade.",
      "downloads": {
        "json": "https://vultax.com/research/ecb-rate-decision-odds-polymarket/data.json?dataset=scorecard-chart",
        "csv": "https://vultax.com/research/ecb-rate-decision-odds-polymarket/data.csv?dataset=scorecard-chart"
      }
    }
  ]
}