{ "schemaVersion": "vultax-public-research-data-v1", "articleUrl": "https://vultax.com/research/ecb-rate-decision-odds-polymarket", "datasets": [ { "title": "Every ECB meeting since October 2024, scored", "columns": [ { "name": "ECB meeting", "unit": null }, { "name": "Decision", "unit": null }, { "name": "30 days before", "unit": null }, { "name": "7 days before", "unit": null }, { "name": "1 day before", "unit": null }, { "name": "1 hour before", "unit": null } ], "rows": [ [ "17 October 2024", "25 bp cut", "36.0%", "95.5%", "96.3%", "98.6%" ], [ "12 December 2024", "25 bp cut", "81.0%", "87.0%", "95.1%", "98.3%" ], [ "30 January 2025", "25 bp cut", "market not open", "95.1%", "96.1%", "99.1%" ], [ "6 March 2025", "25 bp cut", "91.5%", "96.4%", "98.7%", "98.7%" ], [ "17 April 2025", "25 bp cut", "41.5%", "95.5%", "99.1%", "99.2%" ], [ "5 June 2025", "25 bp cut", "94.0%", "96.1%", "98.8%", "99.5%" ], [ "24 July 2025", "Hold", "90.5%", "97.3%", "96.0%", "99.5%" ], [ "11 September 2025", "Hold", "94.5%", "98.2%", "98.5%", "99.6%" ], [ "30 October 2025", "Hold", "96.9%", "98.2%", "98.3%", "99.9%" ], [ "18 December 2025", "Hold", "96.2%", "99.4%", "99.9%", "99.9%" ], [ "5 February 2026", "Hold", "97.2%", "99.6%", "99.9%", "99.8%" ], [ "30 April 2026", "Hold", "73.1%", "98.7%", "99.1%", "99.5%" ], [ "11 June 2026", "25 bp rise", "80.5%", "98.5%", "99.5%", "98.9%" ], [ "23 July 2026", "Hold", "95.0%", "98.9%", "99.5%", "99.8%" ], [ "10 September 2026", "25 bp rise", "86.5%", "99.3%", "99.6%", "99.7%" ] ], "measurementContext": "Polymarket's price for the decision the ECB took, at each checkpoint. Statement times: 14:15 Frankfurt time, 12:15 or 13:15 UTC. The October 2024 market asked only whether the ECB would cut; the others list four or five outcomes. The January 2025 market opened 26 days before its meeting.", "sources": [ { "label": "European Central Bank — Key ECB interest rates", "url": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html", "note": "Decisions and rates with effect from each date, read 19 October 2026." }, { "label": "European Central Bank — Monetary policy meeting calendar", "url": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html", "note": "Meeting dates, including 29 October and 17 December 2026." }, { "label": "Polymarket — ECB Interest Rates: October 2026", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/ecb-interest-rates-october-2026-20260723225848778", "note": "Read at 20:55 UTC on 19 October 2026." }, { "label": "Polymarket — ECB Interest Rates: December 2026", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/ecb-interest-rates-december-2026", "note": "Read at 20:55 UTC on 19 October 2026." }, { "label": "Polymarket — ECB Interest Rates: June 2026", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/ecb-interest-rates-june-2026", "note": "Settled 11 June 2026." }, { "label": "Polymarket — ECB Interest Rates: September 2026", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/ecb-interest-rates-september-2026-20260616222636097", "note": "Settled 10 September 2026." }, { "label": "Polymarket — European Central Bank cuts rates in Oct meeting?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/european-central-bank-cuts-rates-in-oct-meeting", "note": "The October 2024 market." }, { "label": "Polymarket API — price history", "url": "https://docs.polymarket.com/", "note": "Minute and daily Yes prices from the CLOB API. Vultax computed the checkpoint readings and scores." }, { "label": "Conditional formula proofs", "url": "https://vultax.com/datasets/research-proof-library-2026-10-25/scopes/141d4e12c5b28330e20e6d28e03c60aa357b19ad7d692ea615beed45187b111a.md", "note": "Conditional formulas only. The proofs cover the conditional mathematical formulas; article-specific measurements and numerical results have not been proved." }, { "label": "Per-article scope records and Lean package", "url": "https://vultax.com/datasets/research-proof-library-2026-10-25/README.md", "note": "Dated per-article scope records, Lean source, frozen permitted public inputs, checker logs and a reproducible ZIP. Covers only the scope stated in each record, not the whole study." } ], "measurement": { "kind": "observed", "temporalCoverage": "2024-09-17/2026-09-10", "population": "Polymarket's ECB interest rate markets with trading, 15 meetings", "methodology": "Last traded Yes price at or before each checkpoint minute, from the CLOB minute price history; scored against the ECB key interest rates table." }, "id": "scorecard-table", "kind": "published-table", "description": "A week before each ECB decision from October 2024 to September 2026, Polymarket's favourite was the decision the ECB took, at a median 98.2%. A month out it missed twice. Both 2026 rate rises were priced above 98% a week ahead.", "articleUrl": "https://vultax.com/research/ecb-rate-decision-odds-polymarket", "sectionUrl": "https://vultax.com/research/ecb-rate-decision-odds-polymarket#scorecard", "publishedAt": "2026-10-28", "modifiedAt": "2026-10-28", "version": "9bfd65b9dcd7a8726c3887001ed8224358311277e87e38c636e771db80b8d45b", "isLive": false, "limitations": "Published research snapshots and calculations; these exports do not contain current quotes or live account data. Observation windows and populations are stated in the source captions and methodology. Missing metadata is unknown, not zero. A reading of public market prices at stated times, scored against the published decisions; not a forecast by Vultax and not advice to trade.", "downloads": { "json": "https://vultax.com/research/ecb-rate-decision-odds-polymarket/data.json?dataset=scorecard-table", "csv": "https://vultax.com/research/ecb-rate-decision-odds-polymarket/data.csv?dataset=scorecard-table" } } ] }