{
  "schemaVersion": "vultax-public-research-data-v1",
  "articleUrl": "https://vultax.com/research/ecb-rate-decision-odds-polymarket",
  "datasets": [
    {
      "title": "Price of a 25 bp ECB rise, by days before the statement",
      "columns": [
        {
          "name": "Category",
          "unit": null
        },
        {
          "name": "June 2026 meeting, rose",
          "unit": "%"
        },
        {
          "name": "September 2026 meeting, rose",
          "unit": "%"
        },
        {
          "name": "April 2026 meeting, held",
          "unit": "%"
        }
      ],
      "rows": [
        [
          "80 days",
          47.5,
          38,
          2.6
        ],
        [
          "79 days",
          57,
          25,
          2.6
        ],
        [
          "78 days",
          66.5,
          30.5,
          2.5
        ],
        [
          "77 days",
          65,
          32.5,
          1.9
        ],
        [
          "76 days",
          67,
          48.5,
          2.7
        ],
        [
          "75 days",
          67,
          48,
          1.9
        ],
        [
          "74 days",
          67,
          53.5,
          1.9
        ],
        [
          "73 days",
          67,
          55,
          1.9
        ],
        [
          "72 days",
          67,
          40.5,
          2
        ],
        [
          "71 days",
          67,
          41,
          2
        ],
        [
          "70 days",
          67,
          18.5,
          2
        ],
        [
          "69 days",
          67,
          21,
          1.9
        ],
        [
          "68 days",
          67,
          17,
          1.8
        ],
        [
          "67 days",
          75,
          15,
          1.7
        ],
        [
          "66 days",
          75,
          16,
          1.7
        ],
        [
          "65 days",
          75,
          19,
          1.7
        ],
        [
          "64 days",
          75,
          36,
          1.6
        ],
        [
          "63 days",
          60.5,
          49,
          1.8
        ],
        [
          "62 days",
          60.5,
          47,
          1.7
        ],
        [
          "61 days",
          60.5,
          30,
          1.9
        ],
        [
          "60 days",
          66.5,
          46.5,
          1.9
        ],
        [
          "59 days",
          66.5,
          43,
          1.9
        ],
        [
          "58 days",
          66.5,
          69.5,
          2.1
        ],
        [
          "57 days",
          66.5,
          61,
          3.9
        ],
        [
          "56 days",
          66.5,
          58.5,
          1.8
        ],
        [
          "55 days",
          66.5,
          59.5,
          4.3
        ],
        [
          "54 days",
          66.5,
          79.5,
          3.3
        ],
        [
          "53 days",
          66.5,
          87,
          3.4
        ],
        [
          "52 days",
          66.5,
          87,
          4.9
        ],
        [
          "51 days",
          66.5,
          76.5,
          7.3
        ],
        [
          "50 days",
          37.5,
          74,
          3.6
        ],
        [
          "49 days",
          55,
          78,
          13.7
        ],
        [
          "48 days",
          56,
          82,
          13.7
        ],
        [
          "47 days",
          69.5,
          79.5,
          11.5
        ],
        [
          "46 days",
          70,
          78.5,
          12.9
        ],
        [
          "45 days",
          62.5,
          79,
          13.7
        ],
        [
          "44 days",
          54,
          80.5,
          12.8
        ],
        [
          "43 days",
          82,
          80.5,
          9.9
        ],
        [
          "42 days",
          82.5,
          80.5,
          9.6
        ],
        [
          "41 days",
          84.5,
          84.5,
          27.5
        ],
        [
          "40 days",
          84.5,
          89.5,
          50.2
        ],
        [
          "39 days",
          83.5,
          88.5,
          52.3
        ],
        [
          "38 days",
          84,
          87.5,
          51.7
        ],
        [
          "37 days",
          86.5,
          87.5,
          37.5
        ],
        [
          "36 days",
          84.5,
          86.5,
          48.3
        ],
        [
          "35 days",
          76,
          86.5,
          40.3
        ],
        [
          "34 days",
          69,
          85.5,
          44.4
        ],
        [
          "33 days",
          70.5,
          85.5,
          35.6
        ],
        [
          "32 days",
          70.5,
          84.5,
          38.6
        ],
        [
          "31 days",
          73,
          83.5,
          38.6
        ],
        [
          "30 days",
          80.5,
          84.5,
          36.4
        ],
        [
          "29 days",
          81,
          87,
          36.4
        ],
        [
          "28 days",
          84.5,
          86.5,
          26.4
        ],
        [
          "27 days",
          81.5,
          86.5,
          26.4
        ],
        [
          "26 days",
          83.5,
          86.5,
          26.4
        ],
        [
          "25 days",
          83,
          86.5,
          26.4
        ],
        [
          "24 days",
          85.5,
          86.5,
          26.4
        ],
        [
          "23 days",
          86.5,
          87.5,
          26.4
        ],
        [
          "22 days",
          88.5,
          88.5,
          26.4
        ],
        [
          "21 days",
          85.5,
          90.5,
          13.1
        ],
        [
          "20 days",
          82,
          90.5,
          13.1
        ],
        [
          "19 days",
          87.5,
          91.5,
          13.1
        ],
        [
          "18 days",
          86.5,
          93,
          13.1
        ],
        [
          "17 days",
          86.5,
          94.5,
          13.1
        ],
        [
          "16 days",
          82,
          95,
          13.1
        ],
        [
          "15 days",
          87.5,
          96.4,
          13.1
        ],
        [
          "14 days",
          92.5,
          96.8,
          13.1
        ],
        [
          "13 days",
          91.5,
          97.3,
          13.1
        ],
        [
          "12 days",
          95.5,
          98.1,
          13.1
        ],
        [
          "11 days",
          95.5,
          98.3,
          2.1
        ],
        [
          "10 days",
          94,
          98.3,
          2.1
        ],
        [
          "9 days",
          96.9,
          98.5,
          2.1
        ],
        [
          "8 days",
          98.2,
          98.9,
          1.8
        ],
        [
          "7 days",
          98.1,
          99.2,
          1.4
        ],
        [
          "6 days",
          96.7,
          99.3,
          1.3
        ],
        [
          "5 days",
          98,
          99.4,
          1.2
        ],
        [
          "4 days",
          98,
          99.4,
          2.2
        ],
        [
          "3 days",
          98.6,
          99.6,
          4.7
        ],
        [
          "2 days",
          99.3,
          99.7,
          1.6
        ],
        [
          "1 day",
          98.8,
          99.6,
          1.5
        ]
      ],
      "measurementContext": "Polymarket, daily 00:00 UTC readings for the April, June and September 2026 meetings. Percent.",
      "sources": [
        {
          "label": "European Central Bank — Key ECB interest rates",
          "url": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html",
          "note": "Decisions and rates with effect from each date, read 19 October 2026."
        },
        {
          "label": "European Central Bank — Monetary policy meeting calendar",
          "url": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html",
          "note": "Meeting dates, including 29 October and 17 December 2026."
        },
        {
          "label": "Polymarket — ECB Interest Rates: October 2026",
          "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/ecb-interest-rates-october-2026-20260723225848778",
          "note": "Read at 20:55 UTC on 19 October 2026."
        },
        {
          "label": "Polymarket — ECB Interest Rates: December 2026",
          "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/ecb-interest-rates-december-2026",
          "note": "Read at 20:55 UTC on 19 October 2026."
        },
        {
          "label": "Polymarket — ECB Interest Rates: June 2026",
          "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/ecb-interest-rates-june-2026",
          "note": "Settled 11 June 2026."
        },
        {
          "label": "Polymarket — ECB Interest Rates: September 2026",
          "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/ecb-interest-rates-september-2026-20260616222636097",
          "note": "Settled 10 September 2026."
        },
        {
          "label": "Polymarket — European Central Bank cuts rates in Oct meeting?",
          "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/european-central-bank-cuts-rates-in-oct-meeting",
          "note": "The October 2024 market."
        },
        {
          "label": "Polymarket API — price history",
          "url": "https://docs.polymarket.com/",
          "note": "Minute and daily Yes prices from the CLOB API. Vultax computed the checkpoint readings and scores."
        },
        {
          "label": "Conditional formula proofs",
          "url": "https://vultax.com/datasets/research-proof-library-2026-10-25/scopes/141d4e12c5b28330e20e6d28e03c60aa357b19ad7d692ea615beed45187b111a.md",
          "note": "Conditional formulas only. The proofs cover the conditional mathematical formulas; article-specific measurements and numerical results have not been proved."
        },
        {
          "label": "Per-article scope records and Lean package",
          "url": "https://vultax.com/datasets/research-proof-library-2026-10-25/README.md",
          "note": "Dated per-article scope records, Lean source, frozen permitted public inputs, checker logs and a reproducible ZIP. Covers only the scope stated in each record, not the whole study."
        }
      ],
      "measurement": {
        "kind": "observed",
        "temporalCoverage": "2026-02-09/2026-09-09",
        "population": "The rate-rise contract in Polymarket's April, June and September 2026 ECB markets",
        "methodology": "Daily price-history values; a day without a recorded price carries the last one forward."
      },
      "id": "the-2026-hikes-chart",
      "kind": "published-chart",
      "description": "A week before each ECB decision from October 2024 to September 2026, Polymarket's favourite was the decision the ECB took, at a median 98.2%. A month out it missed twice. Both 2026 rate rises were priced above 98% a week ahead.",
      "articleUrl": "https://vultax.com/research/ecb-rate-decision-odds-polymarket",
      "sectionUrl": "https://vultax.com/research/ecb-rate-decision-odds-polymarket#the-2026-hikes",
      "publishedAt": "2026-10-28",
      "modifiedAt": "2026-10-28",
      "version": "e12d1ff4ab174d005da747cd0acf67baef0a5463a2ec79cd43d15db7a019056b",
      "isLive": false,
      "limitations": "Published research snapshots and calculations; these exports do not contain current quotes or live account data. Observation windows and populations are stated in the source captions and methodology. Missing metadata is unknown, not zero. A reading of public market prices at stated times, scored against the published decisions; not a forecast by Vultax and not advice to trade.",
      "downloads": {
        "json": "https://vultax.com/research/ecb-rate-decision-odds-polymarket/data.json?dataset=the-2026-hikes-chart",
        "csv": "https://vultax.com/research/ecb-rate-decision-odds-polymarket/data.csv?dataset=the-2026-hikes-chart"
      }
    }
  ]
}