ECB decisions called a week out: 15 of 15

A week before each ECB decision from October 2024 to September 2026, Polymarket's favourite was the decision the ECB took, at a median 98.2%. A month out it missed twice. Both 2026 rate rises were priced above 98% a week ahead. Polymarket has listed a market on every ECB rate decision since October 2024. A month out the record is weaker.

- Median price of the ECB's decision a week out: 98.2%
- Misses a month out: 2 of 14
- June 2026 rate rise, priced a week out: 98.5%

Observed 2024-10-10 to 2026-09-03, population: The outcome contract that matched the decision.

Study: https://vultax.com/research/ecb-rate-decision-odds-polymarket
Markdown: https://vultax.com/research/ecb-rate-decision-odds-polymarket.md
Data: https://vultax.com/research/ecb-rate-decision-odds-polymarket/data.json
Share card: https://vultax.com/og/article/research/ecb-rate-decision-odds-polymarket
Live screen: https://app.vultax.com/predictions/topic/ecb-interest-rates

Vultax Research, ECB Rate Decision Odds: Polymarket's Favourite a Week Out Was Right at 15 of 15 Meetings, 2026-10-28, https://vultax.com/research/ecb-rate-decision-odds-polymarket