# Election Night Odds: Polymarket Passed 90% for Trump Nearly 7 Hours Before the AP Call
On election night 2024 Polymarket's presidential market moved from 58.3% for Trump at 7 p.m. Eastern to above 90% at 10:38 p.m., 6 h 56 min before the AP call. In Michigan the lead was 12 h 19 min. Minute by minute, against every AP call.
Canonical URL: https://vultax.com/research/election-night-odds-polymarket-2024
Author: [Vultax Research Team](https://vultax.com/editorial-policy#who)
Published: 2026-11-02
Last public revision: 2026-11-02
Cite as: Vultax Research Team (2026). Election Night Odds: Polymarket Passed 90% for Trump Nearly 7 Hours Before the AP Call. Vultax Research notes 2026-041, Vultax Research, Tallinn, 2 November 2026. https://vultax.com/research/election-night-odds-polymarket-2024
AI-assisted drafting, research and editing. Published by OmniOS OÜ. [How we use AI](https://vultax.com/editorial-policy#ai)
Published research snapshots and calculations; these exports do not contain current quotes or live account data. Observation windows and populations are stated in the source captions and methodology. Missing metadata is unknown, not zero. A reading of public market prices at stated minutes, compared with published race calls; not a forecast by Vultax and not advice to trade.
## Key figures
- Presidency: Polymarket above 90% before the AP call: 6 h 56 min — Trump crossed 90% for good at 10:38 p.m. Eastern on 5 November 2024; the AP called the race at 5:34 a.m. on 6 November
- Trump in the presidential market at 7 p.m. Eastern: 58.3% — Read at 7 p.m. Eastern on 5 November 2024. The evening low was 56.9% at 6:43 p.m.
- Michigan: market lead over the AP call: 12 h 19 min — Trump was 38.5% in Michigan at 7 p.m. and above 90% from 12:35 a.m.; the AP called the state at 12:54 p.m. on 6 November
- Pennsylvania at its lowest that evening: 49.5% — At 8:22 p.m. Eastern, a coin flip. It passed 90% at 11:21 p.m., 3 h 3 min before the AP called it
## The short answer
On election night 2024 Polymarket's presidential market reached the result hours before the Associated Press did. Donald Trump was 58.3% at 7 p.m. Eastern on 5 November. He crossed 90% at 10:38 p.m. and never fell back below it; the AP called the race at 5:34 a.m. on 6 November, 6 h 56 min later.
The same gap appears in every battleground state. The state markets passed 90% for the eventual winner between 1 h 58 min and 12 h 19 min before the AP called North Carolina, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan, and about three days before Nevada and Arizona.
The two are answering different questions. The AP calls a race when the trailing candidate can no longer catch up. A market price is a chance, and 90% is wrong one time in ten. Prices are Polymarket's minute Yes prices from its public price history.
## Election night 2024, state by state
The table gives Trump's price in each market at 7 p.m. Eastern, its lowest point between 6 p.m. and 10 p.m., the minute it crossed 90% and stayed there, and the AP call. All times are Eastern on the night of 5 to 6 November 2024 unless stated.
Michigan moved furthest. Trump was the underdog there: 38.5% at 7 p.m., with a low of 37.5% at 7:24 p.m. Eastern. Between 10 p.m. and 11 p.m. his price went from 58.0% to 92.0%, and the AP call came at 12:54 p.m. the next afternoon.
Polymarket minute Yes prices for Trump in each market. Evening low: the lowest price between 6 p.m. and 10 p.m. Eastern. Above 90% from: the first minute after which the price did not fall below 90% again before the AP call. AP call times as published by the AP.
| Market | Trump at 7 p.m. | Evening low | Above 90% from | AP call | Market ahead by |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Presidency | 58.3% | 56.9% at 6:43 p.m. | 10:38 p.m. | 5:34 a.m. | 6 h 56 min |
| North Carolina | 68.0% | 63.5% at 7:48 p.m. | 9:20 p.m. | 11:18 p.m. on 5 Nov | 1 h 58 min |
| Georgia | 65.0% | 65.0% at 6:54 p.m. | 9:22 p.m. | 12:58 a.m. | 3 h 36 min |
| Pennsylvania | 52.5% | 49.5% at 8:22 p.m. | 11:21 p.m. | 2:24 a.m. | 3 h 3 min |
| Wisconsin | 49.5% | 47.0% at 7:12 p.m. | 11:35 p.m. | 5:34 a.m. | 5 h 59 min |
| Michigan | 38.5% | 37.5% at 7:24 p.m. | 12:35 a.m. | 12:54 p.m. | 12 h 19 min |
| Arizona | 81.5% | 81.5% at 6:00 p.m. | 1:05 a.m. | 9:21 p.m. on 9 Nov | about 92 hours |
| Nevada | 54.5% | 53.5% at 7:01 p.m. | 1:18 a.m. | early on 9 Nov | about 3 days |
[CSV](https://vultax.com/research/election-night-odds-polymarket-2024/data.csv?dataset=state-by-state-table), [JSON](https://vultax.com/research/election-night-odds-polymarket-2024/data.json?dataset=state-by-state-table)
## The presidential market, minute by minute
The presidential price barely moved in the first hour. It was 61.1% at 6 p.m., touched 56.9% at 6:43 p.m. and was 70.2% at 8 p.m. It rose to 82.7% at 10 p.m. and 93.1% at 11 p.m., while counts came in from Georgia, North Carolina and Pennsylvania.
By the time the AP called North Carolina at 11:18 p.m., the presidential market was already above 90%. When the AP called Pennsylvania at 2:24 a.m., Trump was 99.5%, and at the 5:34 a.m. call 99.6%. The state calls confirmed a move the price had made earlier.
### Trump's price on election night 2024
Polymarket, every 10 minutes, 6 p.m. to 6 a.m. Eastern, 5 to 6 November 2024. Percent.
| Category | Presidency (%) | Pennsylvania (%) | Wisconsin (%) | Michigan (%) |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 6:00 pm | 61.1 | 56.5 | 50.5 | 39.5 |
| 6:10 pm | 61.1 | 55 | 50 | 39 |
| 6:20 pm | 61.2 | 55 | 49.5 | 39 |
| 6:30 pm | 60.7 | 55.5 | 49.5 | 39.5 |
| 6:40 pm | 58.7 | 55.5 | 48.5 | 39 |
| 6:50 pm | 59.2 | 53.5 | 48.5 | 38.5 |
| 7:00 pm | 58.3 | 52.5 | 49.5 | 38.5 |
| 7:10 pm | 58.9 | 52.5 | 48.5 | 39 |
| 7:20 pm | 61.3 | 53.5 | 48.5 | 38 |
| 7:30 pm | 61.8 | 57.5 | 48.5 | 37.5 |
| 7:40 pm | 64.8 | 58 | 51 | 38 |
| 7:50 pm | 66.6 | 61.5 | 48.5 | 39.5 |
| 8:00 pm | 70.2 | 62.5 | 54.5 | 41 |
| 8:10 pm | 67.7 | 58.5 | 61.5 | 41 |
| 8:20 pm | 69.7 | 58.5 | 61 | 40.5 |
| 8:30 pm | 69.6 | 55 | 60 | 41 |
| 8:40 pm | 71.8 | 60.5 | 58 | 42 |
| 8:50 pm | 74.6 | 60.5 | 58 | 46 |
| 9:00 pm | 71.4 | 60.5 | 61 | 46 |
| 9:10 pm | 71.4 | 58.5 | 57 | 44.5 |
| 9:20 pm | 74.8 | 56.5 | 61 | 48.5 |
| 9:30 pm | 75.8 | 64.5 | 63.5 | 51 |
| 9:40 pm | 76.7 | 73.5 | 63.5 | 60.5 |
| 9:50 pm | 78.7 | 73.5 | 70.5 | 62.5 |
| 10:00 pm | 82.7 | 74.5 | 77.5 | 58 |
| 10:10 pm | 87.8 | 82.5 | 81 | 77 |
| 10:20 pm | 89.7 | 80.5 | 84 | 83 |
| 10:30 pm | 87.9 | 87.5 | 87 | 79.5 |
| 10:40 pm | 91.8 | 88 | 86.5 | 79 |
| 10:50 pm | 93.3 | 86.5 | 91 | 88 |
| 11:00 pm | 93.1 | 88 | 93 | 92 |
| 11:10 pm | 93.9 | 89.5 | 93.5 | 91 |
| 11:20 pm | 94.2 | 90 | 95 | 90.5 |
| 11:30 pm | 94.6 | 90.5 | 93.4 | 90 |
| 11:40 pm | 94.6 | 93.5 | 92.9 | 83 |
| 11:50 pm | 97 | 96.5 | 93.8 | 90 |
| 12:00 am | 97 | 96.5 | 95 | 92.5 |
| 12:10 am | 96.8 | 96.3 | 94.7 | 93 |
| 12:20 am | 96.7 | 95 | 95 | 88.5 |
| 12:30 am | 96.7 | 94.6 | 94.5 | 92 |
| 12:40 am | 96.9 | 95.7 | 94.6 | 91.5 |
| 12:50 am | 97.5 | 96.4 | 94.7 | 91 |
| 1:00 am | 98.3 | 96.6 | 95.6 | 93 |
| 1:10 am | 98.9 | 98.5 | 95.8 | 96 |
| 1:20 am | 98.9 | 97.7 | 97 | 96.6 |
| 1:30 am | 99.2 | 99.3 | 97.7 | 97.5 |
| 1:40 am | 99.3 | 99.3 | 98 | 97.4 |
| 1:50 am | 99.1 | 99.1 | 98.5 | 98.9 |
| 2:00 am | 99.3 | 99.7 | 99.1 | 97.7 |
| 2:10 am | 99.4 | 99.5 | 99 | 97.7 |
| 2:20 am | 99.4 | 99.4 | 99 | 98.8 |
| 2:30 am | 99.5 | 99.6 | 99.4 | 98.4 |
| 2:40 am | 99.6 | 99.7 | 99.2 | 97.1 |
| 2:50 am | 99.6 | 99.6 | 99.2 | 97.8 |
| 3:00 am | 99.5 | 99.6 | 99.2 | 97.8 |
| 3:10 am | 99.4 | 99.9 | 99.2 | 97.9 |
| 3:20 am | 99.5 | 99.9 | 99 | 98.1 |
| 3:30 am | 99.7 | 99.5 | 99 | 99.4 |
| 3:40 am | 99.7 | 99.5 | 99.1 | 98.5 |
| 3:50 am | 99.6 | 99.5 | 99.1 | 98.2 |
| 4:00 am | 99.6 | 99.4 | 98.9 | 98.9 |
| 4:10 am | 99.4 | 99.4 | 98.8 | 98.8 |
| 4:20 am | 99.6 | 99.6 | 98.8 | 98.6 |
| 4:30 am | 99.6 | 99.5 | 98.8 | 98.9 |
| 4:40 am | 99.6 | 99.5 | 98.9 | 99 |
| 4:50 am | 99.6 | 98.9 | 98.9 | 98.9 |
| 5:00 am | 99.5 | 99.3 | 98.9 | 98.4 |
| 5:10 am | 99.6 | 99.2 | 98.9 | 98.5 |
| 5:20 am | 99.6 | 99.4 | 99 | 98.4 |
| 5:30 am | 99.6 | 99.3 | 99 | 98.4 |
| 5:40 am | 99.6 | 99.4 | 99.1 | 99.2 |
| 5:50 am | 99.7 | 99.2 | 99.4 | 98.9 |
| 6:00 am | 99.7 | 99 | 99.7 | 98.1 |
[CSV](https://vultax.com/research/election-night-odds-polymarket-2024/data.csv?dataset=minute-by-minute-chart), [JSON](https://vultax.com/research/election-night-odds-polymarket-2024/data.json?dataset=minute-by-minute-chart)
## The popular vote, the Senate and the House
The popular vote market turned as well. Trump was 28.1% to win the national vote at 7 p.m. and 80.8% at 11 p.m.; he crossed 90% at 12:39 a.m. and won the popular vote.
Senate control was the earliest call in the markets. A Republican Senate was 82.5% at 7 p.m. and crossed 90% for good at 8:39 p.m. Eastern. The House was the slow one: a Republican House was 50.0% at 7 p.m. rose to 79.0% at 11 p.m. and fell back to 60.5% at midnight. It crossed 90% for good only on the evening of 6 November and 99% on 11 November. AP race calls gave Republicans a House majority in the week after the vote.
## What it means for the 2026 midterms
The midterms on 3 November 2026 have no presidential race, so the night turns on House and Senate control, where 2024 showed the market and the count moving at different speeds. House control in a close year can take a week of counting; in 2024 the market spent five days between 90% and 99%.
Vultax froze 13,186 Polymarket midterm contracts before the vote for its [midterm scorecard](https://vultax.com/research/midterm-scorecard-2026), which will score them against the results. How Polymarket and Kalshi price the same races is in our comparison of their midterm odds.
- Watch the price, not the first count. Early votes in many states are counted in a different order from election-day votes, and prices moved before the count settled.
- Read 90% as one in ten. A price above 90% was right in every 2024 battleground; one night is not a rate.
- A race call is a different standard. The AP waits until the trailing candidate cannot catch up; the market prices the chance before that.
## Method and limits
Prices are Polymarket's Yes prices for Trump from its public minute price history, from 12:00 UTC on 5 November to 12:00 UTC on 7 November 2024, and to the AP calls for Arizona and Nevada. A crossing time is the first minute after which the price did not fall below the level again before the AP call. All times are Eastern Standard Time, UTC minus 5.
AP call times are those the AP published: North Carolina 11:18 p.m. on 5 November; Georgia 12:58 a.m., Pennsylvania 2:24 a.m., Wisconsin and the presidency 5:34 a.m., Michigan 12:54 p.m. on 6 November; Nevada early on 9 November; Arizona 9:21 p.m. on 9 November.
One election night is one case. The markets were right in every battleground in 2024 and could be wrong in another year. This page reads public prices; it is not a forecast by Vultax and not advice to trade.
## Questions
### When did Polymarket call the 2024 election?
Polymarket does not call races. Its presidential price for Trump crossed 90% at 10:38 p.m. Eastern on 5 November 2024 and stayed above it; the AP called the race at 5:34 a.m. on 6 November.
### How fast do election odds move on election night?
In 2024 Trump's presidential price went from 58.3% at 7 p.m. Eastern to 93.1% at 11 p.m. In Michigan it went from 58.0% to 92.0% between 10 p.m. and 11 p.m.
### Are prediction markets faster than the AP?
On the 2024 night the markets passed 90% for the eventual winner hours before every AP call, from 1 h 58 min in North Carolina to about three days in Arizona and Nevada. The AP waits for certainty; a price is a chance.
### When will the 2026 midterm results be known?
In 2024 Senate control was priced above 90% by 8:39 p.m. Eastern, less than two hours after 7 p.m. House control took longer: the 2024 market reached 99% six days after the vote. Close House races can take days to count.
## Sources and methodology
- [Polymarket — Presidential Election Winner 2024](https://polymarket.com/event/presidential-election-winner-2024) — Settled 6 November 2024.
- [Polymarket — Who will win Pennsylvania?](https://polymarket.com/event/pennsylvania-presidential-election-winner) — One of seven battleground state markets read; the others follow the same address pattern.
- [Polymarket — Who will win Michigan?](https://polymarket.com/event/michigan-presidential-election-winner)
- [Polymarket — House control after 2024 election?](https://polymarket.com/event/house-control-after-2024-election)
- [Polymarket API — price history](https://docs.polymarket.com/) — Minute Yes prices from the CLOB API. Vultax computed the crossing times.
- [AP, via PBS NewsHour — Why AP called Wisconsin and the White House for Donald Trump](https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/why-ap-called-wisconsin-and-the-white-house-for-donald-trump-2) — Wisconsin and the presidency at 5:34 a.m. ET; Pennsylvania at 2:24 a.m. ET.
- [AP, via ClickOnDetroit — Why AP called Michigan for Trump](https://www.clickondetroit.com/news/politics/2024/11/06/why-ap-called-michigan-for-trump/) — Called at 12:54 p.m. on 6 November.
- [AP, via KVIA — Why AP called Arizona for Trump](https://kvia.com/news/2024/11/09/why-ap-called-arizona-for-trump/) — Called at 9:21 p.m. ET on 9 November.
- [AP, via KOLO — Why AP called Nevada's presidential race for Trump](https://www.kolotv.com/2024/11/09/why-ap-called-nevadas-presidential-race-trump) — Called early on 9 November.
- [Adweek TVNewser — When the networks called the battleground states](https://www.adweek.com/tvnewser/election-night-battleground-states-network-airtimes/) — AP calls of North Carolina at 11:18 p.m. and Georgia at 12:58 a.m. ET.
- [OPB — Republicans retain their hold of the House](https://opb.org/article/2024/11/14/republicans-officially-control-congress-after-house-race-calls) — AP race calls give Republicans a House majority, 14 November 2024.
- [Per-article scope records and Lean package](https://vultax.com/datasets/research-proof-library-public-2026-10-28/README.md) — Historical scope records and selected Lean checks; the complete package is temporarily unavailable.