{
  "schemaVersion": "vultax-public-research-data-v1",
  "articleUrl": "https://vultax.com/research/election-night-odds-polymarket-2024",
  "datasets": [
    {
      "title": "Trump's price on election night 2024",
      "columns": [
        {
          "name": "Category",
          "unit": null
        },
        {
          "name": "Presidency",
          "unit": "%"
        },
        {
          "name": "Pennsylvania",
          "unit": "%"
        },
        {
          "name": "Wisconsin",
          "unit": "%"
        },
        {
          "name": "Michigan",
          "unit": "%"
        }
      ],
      "rows": [
        [
          "6:00 pm",
          61.1,
          56.5,
          50.5,
          39.5
        ],
        [
          "6:10 pm",
          61.1,
          55,
          50,
          39
        ],
        [
          "6:20 pm",
          61.2,
          55,
          49.5,
          39
        ],
        [
          "6:30 pm",
          60.7,
          55.5,
          49.5,
          39.5
        ],
        [
          "6:40 pm",
          58.7,
          55.5,
          48.5,
          39
        ],
        [
          "6:50 pm",
          59.2,
          53.5,
          48.5,
          38.5
        ],
        [
          "7:00 pm",
          58.3,
          52.5,
          49.5,
          38.5
        ],
        [
          "7:10 pm",
          58.9,
          52.5,
          48.5,
          39
        ],
        [
          "7:20 pm",
          61.3,
          53.5,
          48.5,
          38
        ],
        [
          "7:30 pm",
          61.8,
          57.5,
          48.5,
          37.5
        ],
        [
          "7:40 pm",
          64.8,
          58,
          51,
          38
        ],
        [
          "7:50 pm",
          66.6,
          61.5,
          48.5,
          39.5
        ],
        [
          "8:00 pm",
          70.2,
          62.5,
          54.5,
          41
        ],
        [
          "8:10 pm",
          67.7,
          58.5,
          61.5,
          41
        ],
        [
          "8:20 pm",
          69.7,
          58.5,
          61,
          40.5
        ],
        [
          "8:30 pm",
          69.6,
          55,
          60,
          41
        ],
        [
          "8:40 pm",
          71.8,
          60.5,
          58,
          42
        ],
        [
          "8:50 pm",
          74.6,
          60.5,
          58,
          46
        ],
        [
          "9:00 pm",
          71.4,
          60.5,
          61,
          46
        ],
        [
          "9:10 pm",
          71.4,
          58.5,
          57,
          44.5
        ],
        [
          "9:20 pm",
          74.8,
          56.5,
          61,
          48.5
        ],
        [
          "9:30 pm",
          75.8,
          64.5,
          63.5,
          51
        ],
        [
          "9:40 pm",
          76.7,
          73.5,
          63.5,
          60.5
        ],
        [
          "9:50 pm",
          78.7,
          73.5,
          70.5,
          62.5
        ],
        [
          "10:00 pm",
          82.7,
          74.5,
          77.5,
          58
        ],
        [
          "10:10 pm",
          87.8,
          82.5,
          81,
          77
        ],
        [
          "10:20 pm",
          89.7,
          80.5,
          84,
          83
        ],
        [
          "10:30 pm",
          87.9,
          87.5,
          87,
          79.5
        ],
        [
          "10:40 pm",
          91.8,
          88,
          86.5,
          79
        ],
        [
          "10:50 pm",
          93.3,
          86.5,
          91,
          88
        ],
        [
          "11:00 pm",
          93.1,
          88,
          93,
          92
        ],
        [
          "11:10 pm",
          93.9,
          89.5,
          93.5,
          91
        ],
        [
          "11:20 pm",
          94.2,
          90,
          95,
          90.5
        ],
        [
          "11:30 pm",
          94.6,
          90.5,
          93.4,
          90
        ],
        [
          "11:40 pm",
          94.6,
          93.5,
          92.9,
          83
        ],
        [
          "11:50 pm",
          97,
          96.5,
          93.8,
          90
        ],
        [
          "12:00 am",
          97,
          96.5,
          95,
          92.5
        ],
        [
          "12:10 am",
          96.8,
          96.3,
          94.7,
          93
        ],
        [
          "12:20 am",
          96.7,
          95,
          95,
          88.5
        ],
        [
          "12:30 am",
          96.7,
          94.6,
          94.5,
          92
        ],
        [
          "12:40 am",
          96.9,
          95.7,
          94.6,
          91.5
        ],
        [
          "12:50 am",
          97.5,
          96.4,
          94.7,
          91
        ],
        [
          "1:00 am",
          98.3,
          96.6,
          95.6,
          93
        ],
        [
          "1:10 am",
          98.9,
          98.5,
          95.8,
          96
        ],
        [
          "1:20 am",
          98.9,
          97.7,
          97,
          96.6
        ],
        [
          "1:30 am",
          99.2,
          99.3,
          97.7,
          97.5
        ],
        [
          "1:40 am",
          99.3,
          99.3,
          98,
          97.4
        ],
        [
          "1:50 am",
          99.1,
          99.1,
          98.5,
          98.9
        ],
        [
          "2:00 am",
          99.3,
          99.7,
          99.1,
          97.7
        ],
        [
          "2:10 am",
          99.4,
          99.5,
          99,
          97.7
        ],
        [
          "2:20 am",
          99.4,
          99.4,
          99,
          98.8
        ],
        [
          "2:30 am",
          99.5,
          99.6,
          99.4,
          98.4
        ],
        [
          "2:40 am",
          99.6,
          99.7,
          99.2,
          97.1
        ],
        [
          "2:50 am",
          99.6,
          99.6,
          99.2,
          97.8
        ],
        [
          "3:00 am",
          99.5,
          99.6,
          99.2,
          97.8
        ],
        [
          "3:10 am",
          99.4,
          99.9,
          99.2,
          97.9
        ],
        [
          "3:20 am",
          99.5,
          99.9,
          99,
          98.1
        ],
        [
          "3:30 am",
          99.7,
          99.5,
          99,
          99.4
        ],
        [
          "3:40 am",
          99.7,
          99.5,
          99.1,
          98.5
        ],
        [
          "3:50 am",
          99.6,
          99.5,
          99.1,
          98.2
        ],
        [
          "4:00 am",
          99.6,
          99.4,
          98.9,
          98.9
        ],
        [
          "4:10 am",
          99.4,
          99.4,
          98.8,
          98.8
        ],
        [
          "4:20 am",
          99.6,
          99.6,
          98.8,
          98.6
        ],
        [
          "4:30 am",
          99.6,
          99.5,
          98.8,
          98.9
        ],
        [
          "4:40 am",
          99.6,
          99.5,
          98.9,
          99
        ],
        [
          "4:50 am",
          99.6,
          98.9,
          98.9,
          98.9
        ],
        [
          "5:00 am",
          99.5,
          99.3,
          98.9,
          98.4
        ],
        [
          "5:10 am",
          99.6,
          99.2,
          98.9,
          98.5
        ],
        [
          "5:20 am",
          99.6,
          99.4,
          99,
          98.4
        ],
        [
          "5:30 am",
          99.6,
          99.3,
          99,
          98.4
        ],
        [
          "5:40 am",
          99.6,
          99.4,
          99.1,
          99.2
        ],
        [
          "5:50 am",
          99.7,
          99.2,
          99.4,
          98.9
        ],
        [
          "6:00 am",
          99.7,
          99,
          99.7,
          98.1
        ]
      ],
      "measurementContext": "Polymarket, every 10 minutes, 6 p.m. to 6 a.m. Eastern, 5 to 6 November 2024. Percent.",
      "sources": [
        {
          "label": "Polymarket — Presidential Election Winner 2024",
          "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/presidential-election-winner-2024",
          "note": "Settled 6 November 2024."
        },
        {
          "label": "Polymarket — Who will win Pennsylvania?",
          "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/pennsylvania-presidential-election-winner",
          "note": "One of seven battleground state markets read; the others follow the same address pattern."
        },
        {
          "label": "Polymarket — Who will win Michigan?",
          "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/michigan-presidential-election-winner",
          "note": null
        },
        {
          "label": "Polymarket — House control after 2024 election?",
          "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/house-control-after-2024-election",
          "note": null
        },
        {
          "label": "Polymarket API — price history",
          "url": "https://docs.polymarket.com/",
          "note": "Minute Yes prices from the CLOB API. Vultax computed the crossing times."
        },
        {
          "label": "AP, via PBS NewsHour — Why AP called Wisconsin and the White House for Donald Trump",
          "url": "https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/why-ap-called-wisconsin-and-the-white-house-for-donald-trump-2",
          "note": "Wisconsin and the presidency at 5:34 a.m. ET; Pennsylvania at 2:24 a.m. ET."
        },
        {
          "label": "AP, via ClickOnDetroit — Why AP called Michigan for Trump",
          "url": "https://www.clickondetroit.com/news/politics/2024/11/06/why-ap-called-michigan-for-trump/",
          "note": "Called at 12:54 p.m. on 6 November."
        },
        {
          "label": "AP, via KVIA — Why AP called Arizona for Trump",
          "url": "https://kvia.com/news/2024/11/09/why-ap-called-arizona-for-trump/",
          "note": "Called at 9:21 p.m. ET on 9 November."
        },
        {
          "label": "AP, via KOLO — Why AP called Nevada's presidential race for Trump",
          "url": "https://www.kolotv.com/2024/11/09/why-ap-called-nevadas-presidential-race-trump",
          "note": "Called early on 9 November."
        },
        {
          "label": "Adweek TVNewser — When the networks called the battleground states",
          "url": "https://www.adweek.com/tvnewser/election-night-battleground-states-network-airtimes/",
          "note": "AP calls of North Carolina at 11:18 p.m. and Georgia at 12:58 a.m. ET."
        },
        {
          "label": "OPB — Republicans retain their hold of the House",
          "url": "https://opb.org/article/2024/11/14/republicans-officially-control-congress-after-house-race-calls",
          "note": "AP race calls give Republicans a House majority, 14 November 2024."
        },
        {
          "label": "Per-article scope records and Lean package",
          "url": "https://vultax.com/datasets/research-proof-library-public-2026-10-28/README.md",
          "note": "Historical scope records and selected Lean checks; the complete package is temporarily unavailable."
        }
      ],
      "measurement": {
        "kind": "observed",
        "temporalCoverage": "2024-11-05T23:00Z/2024-11-06T11:00Z",
        "population": "Trump Yes prices in the presidential, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan markets",
        "methodology": "Last minute price at or before each 10-minute mark."
      },
      "id": "minute-by-minute-chart",
      "kind": "published-chart",
      "description": "On election night 2024 Polymarket's presidential market moved from 58.3% for Trump at 7 p.m. Eastern to above 90% at 10:38 p.m., 6 h 56 min before the AP call. In Michigan the lead was 12 h 19 min. Minute by minute, against every AP call.",
      "articleUrl": "https://vultax.com/research/election-night-odds-polymarket-2024",
      "sectionUrl": "https://vultax.com/research/election-night-odds-polymarket-2024#minute-by-minute",
      "publishedAt": "2026-11-02",
      "modifiedAt": "2026-11-02",
      "version": "24d3b8585af33266d4d0adcbc7a27fa41df02289440e20b61d3da7333ae89058",
      "isLive": false,
      "limitations": "Published research snapshots and calculations; these exports do not contain current quotes or live account data. Observation windows and populations are stated in the source captions and methodology. Missing metadata is unknown, not zero. A reading of public market prices at stated minutes, compared with published race calls; not a forecast by Vultax and not advice to trade.",
      "downloads": {
        "json": "https://vultax.com/research/election-night-odds-polymarket-2024/data.json?dataset=minute-by-minute-chart",
        "csv": "https://vultax.com/research/election-night-odds-polymarket-2024/data.csv?dataset=minute-by-minute-chart"
      }
    }
  ]
}