Presidency: Polymarket above 90% before the AP call: 6 h 56 min

On election night 2024 Polymarket's presidential market moved from 58.3% for Trump at 7 p.m. Eastern to above 90% at 10:38 p.m., 6 h 56 min before the AP call. In Michigan the lead was 12 h 19 min. Minute by minute, against every AP call.

- Trump in the presidential market at 7 p.m. Eastern: 58.3%
- Michigan: market lead over the AP call: 12 h 19 min
- Pennsylvania at its lowest that evening: 49.5%

Observed 2024-11-05T23:00Z to 2024-11-10T02:21Z, population: Polymarket's 2024 presidential winner market and its seven battleground state markets.

Study: https://vultax.com/research/election-night-odds-polymarket-2024
Markdown: https://vultax.com/research/election-night-odds-polymarket-2024.md
Data: https://vultax.com/research/election-night-odds-polymarket-2024/data.json
Share card: https://vultax.com/og/article/research/election-night-odds-polymarket-2024
Live screen: https://app.vultax.com/predictions/topic/midterms-2026

Vultax Research Team, Election Night Odds: Polymarket Passed 90% for Trump Nearly 7 Hours Before the AP Call, 2026-11-02, https://vultax.com/research/election-night-odds-polymarket-2024