# Elon Musk Tweet Count on Polymarket: 101 Rounds Checked, the Favourite Wins 1 in 3
We checked 101 rounds of Polymarket's bet on how many times Elon Musk posts on X in a week. Two days before a round closes, the crowd's favourite range wins 31% of the time, close to its 34% price. When the crowd is wrong, Musk has usually posted more than it expected, not fewer.
Canonical URL: https://vultax.com/research/elon-musk-tweet-count-polymarket
Author: [Vultax Research](https://vultax.com/editorial-policy)
Published: 2026-10-06
Last public revision: 2026-10-06
Published research snapshots and calculations; these exports do not contain current quotes or live account data. Observation windows and populations are stated in the source captions and methodology. Missing metadata is unknown, not zero. Prices are what Polymarket's traders paid at the stated moments, not Vultax's view. Nothing here is a forecast or financial advice.
## Key figures
- The favourite range won, two days before the close: 31% — 31 of 101 seven-day rounds, 3 October 2025 to 25 September 2026 (95% range 23–40%); the favourite's average price was 34.2%.
- The favourite won, six hours before the close: 67% — 68 of 101 rounds, at an average price of 70.5%.
- Misses where Musk posted more, one day before the close: 76% — When the favourite range missed with one day left, he finished above it in 37 rounds and below it in 12; with two days left, 41 and 29.
- Traded on the seven-day rounds: $1.16bn — 101 finished rounds since 3 October 2025, by Polymarket's own count.
## The short answer
Polymarket runs a bet on how many times Elon Musk will post on X in the next seven days. The count is split into ranges of 20 posts, a share of the range that wins pays a dollar, and every other share pays nothing. A new round opens every Tuesday and every Friday at noon New York time and runs seven days, so two rounds are always running. Polymarket settles each round on its own post counter.
We checked all 101 rounds that finished between 3 October 2025 and 25 September 2026 against that counter. Two days before a round closed, the crowd's favourite range was priced at 34.2% on average and won 30.7% of the time, 31 rounds of 101. The crowd's odds are about right. Where the crowd leans is direction: when the favourite missed with one day left, Musk had posted more than it in 37 rounds and fewer in 12.
## Two days, one day and six hours before the close
The favourite's price and its hit rate climb together as the round runs out, and they stay close at every point we read them: about a third and a third two days before the close, about half and half with one day left, 71% and 67% six hours before the close. The range that won was the favourite or the one next to it, 20 posts either way, in 77 rounds of 101.
Polymarket's seven-day Elon Musk post-count rounds, 3 October 2025 to 25 September 2026. The favourite is the range with the highest price at that moment. The last column counts the rounds the favourite lost, split by whether Musk finished above or below it.
| Time before the close | Rounds | Favourite's average price | Favourite won | 95% range | Musk posted more / fewer |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Two days | 101 | 34.2% | 30.7% | 23–40% | 41 / 29 |
| One day | 101 | 48.0% | 51.5% | 42–61% | 37 / 12 |
| Six hours | 101 | 70.5% | 67.3% | 58–76% | 24 / 9 |
[CSV](https://vultax.com/research/elon-musk-tweet-count-polymarket/data.csv?dataset=three-readings-table) · [JSON](https://vultax.com/research/elon-musk-tweet-count-polymarket/data.json?dataset=three-readings-table)
## Are the odds honest?
Two days before the close, every range on the board, not just the favourite, won about as often as its price said. Ranges priced at 20 to 30 cents won 23.9% of the time against an average price of 24.7%; ranges at 40 to 50 cents won 41.7% against 42.8%. The one wobble is at the cheap end: ranges priced at 5 to 10 cents won 11.5% of the time against an average price of 7.2%, 14 of 122, and on a sample that size the gap may be chance.
### Price of a range two days before the close, against how often it won
Every range on every seven-day board, 3 October 2025 to 25 September 2026, grouped by price. Groups with at least 10 ranges.
| Category | Won (%) | Average price (%) |
| --- | --- | --- |
| 0–2¢ | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| 2–5¢ | 2.4 | 3.2 |
| 5–10¢ | 11.5 | 7.2 |
| 10–20¢ | 13.9 | 15 |
| 20–30¢ | 23.9 | 24.7 |
| 30–40¢ | 33.8 | 34.7 |
| 40–50¢ | 41.7 | 42.8 |
[CSV](https://vultax.com/research/elon-musk-tweet-count-polymarket/data.csv?dataset=honest-odds-chart) · [JSON](https://vultax.com/research/elon-musk-tweet-count-polymarket/data.json?dataset=honest-odds-chart)
## When the crowd is wrong, which way is it wrong?
The misses lean one way, and more so as the round runs out. When the favourite lost, Musk had posted more than it in 41 rounds and fewer in 29 two days before the close; 37 and 12 with one day left; 24 and 9 six hours before the close. Rounds that open on a Friday carry most of the lean: with one day left they split 21 to 3, against 16 to 9 for rounds that open on a Tuesday.
The three biggest surprises of the year all went the same way, and in each a share of the range that won had cost under a cent two days before the close. In the round of 7 to 14 November 2025, 240 to 259 posts won at 0.75¢ against a favourite of 160 to 179 at 39.5¢. Christmas week is the one to picture: with two days left in the round of 23 to 30 December 2025, Musk was on 256 posts, the favourite range was 340 to 359 at 34.5¢, and a share of 420 to 439 cost 0.75¢. He finished on 424. In the round of 3 to 10 February 2026, 360 to 379 posts won at 0.85¢ against a favourite of 260 to 279 at 27.8¢.
### Where the range that won sat, counted from the favourite two days before the close
Seven-day rounds, 3 October 2025 to 25 September 2026. 0 is the favourite's own range; +1 is the next range up, 20 posts more.
| Category | Rounds |
| --- | --- |
| -3 | 1 |
| -2 | 6 |
| -1 | 22 |
| 0 | 31 |
| +1 | 24 |
| +2 | 9 |
| +3 | 2 |
| +4 | 5 |
| +5 | 1 |
[CSV](https://vultax.com/research/elon-musk-tweet-count-polymarket/data.csv?dataset=which-way-chart) · [JSON](https://vultax.com/research/elon-musk-tweet-count-polymarket/data.json?dataset=which-way-chart)
## How the bet works
The rules count main-feed posts, quote posts and reposts, and not replies. A deleted post counts if it stayed up long enough for Polymarket's tracker to capture it, about five minutes. The tally that settles each round is the Post Counter at xtracker.polymarket.com, with X itself as the fallback if the tracker fails.
Polymarket also runs 48-hour rounds (114 finished since January 2026) and monthly ones (10 since October 2025). This study scores the seven-day rounds, which carry the money. The 48-hour and monthly rounds, 124 in all, are measured and not yet published.
## What else we hold
For every one of the 101 rounds we hold the crowd's favourite range and its price at the three readings, the range that won and, for 88 rounds, the exact final count. That table is not on this page. It is available on request, and so is a question of your own put to the data: write to research@vultax.com. The charts here may be reused with a credit to Vultax Research.
## Method and limits
Rounds, ranges and results come from Polymarket's public data feed, the Gamma API, with each winner confirmed on the settled market; prices are each range's order-book price history, read at one-minute resolution. A reading is the round's end time less 48 hours, 24 hours or 6 hours, and a range's price there is its last order-book price at or before that time, looked up over the 15 minutes before it. Ranges already settled as losers before a reading count at zero. The Tuesday and Friday rounds overlap by about four days, so the 101 rounds are not fully independent of one another. 101 rounds finished between 3 October 2025 and 25 September 2026; the 95% ranges are Wilson intervals, the span a sample this size could hide. Where xtracker still shows a round's final count (88 rounds), it falls inside the range that won every time.
## Questions
### How often does the favourite win Polymarket's Elon Musk tweet markets?
Two days before a seven-day round closes, 31% of the time (31 rounds of 101 since October 2025), close to its 34% average price. Six hours before the close the favourite wins 67% of the time.
### How does Polymarket count Elon Musk's tweets?
With its own Post Counter at xtracker.polymarket.com. Main-feed posts, quote posts and reposts count; replies do not, and a deleted post counts if the tracker captured it.
### Do the Elon Musk tweet markets underestimate how much he posts?
They lean that way. When the favourite range missed with one day left, Musk had posted more in 37 rounds and fewer in 12; with two days left, 41 and 29. The favourite's own hit rate still stays close to its price.
### When do Polymarket's Elon Musk tweet rounds open and close?
A new round opens every Tuesday and every Friday at noon New York time and closes seven days later, so two rounds are always running.
## Sources and methodology
- [Polymarket — Elon Musk # tweets April 10 – April 17, 2026](https://polymarket.com/event/elon-musk-of-tweets-april-10-april-17) — One seven-day round, with its rules and the range that won
- [Polymarket Gamma API — events](https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/events?slug=elon-musk-of-tweets-april-10-april-17) — Round times, ranges, rules and results; read 25 September 2026
- [Polymarket CLOB — price history](https://docs.polymarket.com/) — One-minute prices for every range at each reading
- [xtracker — Polymarket post counter](https://xtracker.polymarket.com/) — The tally that settles each round