{
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  "articleUrl": "https://vultax.com/research/elon-musk-tweet-count-polymarket",
  "datasets": [
    {
      "title": "Two days, one day and six hours before the close",
      "columns": [
        {
          "name": "Time before the close",
          "unit": null
        },
        {
          "name": "Rounds",
          "unit": null
        },
        {
          "name": "Favourite's average price",
          "unit": null
        },
        {
          "name": "Favourite won",
          "unit": null
        },
        {
          "name": "95% range",
          "unit": null
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        {
          "name": "Musk posted more / fewer",
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        [
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          "48.0%",
          "51.5%",
          "42–61%",
          "37 / 12"
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        [
          "Six hours",
          "101",
          "70.5%",
          "67.3%",
          "58–76%",
          "24 / 9"
        ]
      ],
      "measurementContext": "Polymarket's seven-day Elon Musk post-count rounds, 3 October 2025 to 25 September 2026. The favourite is the range with the highest price at that moment. The last column counts the rounds the favourite lost, split by whether Musk finished above or below it.",
      "sources": [
        {
          "label": "Polymarket — Elon Musk # tweets April 10 – April 17, 2026",
          "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/elon-musk-of-tweets-april-10-april-17",
          "note": "One seven-day round, with its rules and the range that won"
        },
        {
          "label": "Polymarket Gamma API — events",
          "url": "https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/events?slug=elon-musk-of-tweets-april-10-april-17",
          "note": "Round times, ranges, rules and results; read 25 September 2026"
        },
        {
          "label": "Polymarket CLOB — price history",
          "url": "https://docs.polymarket.com/",
          "note": "One-minute prices for every range at each reading"
        },
        {
          "label": "xtracker — Polymarket post counter",
          "url": "https://xtracker.polymarket.com/",
          "note": "The tally that settles each round"
        }
      ],
      "measurement": {
        "kind": "observed",
        "temporalCoverage": "2025-10-03/2026-09-25",
        "population": "101 finished seven-day rounds",
        "methodology": "Order-book price history at one-minute resolution for every range; readings 48 h, 24 h and 6 h before each round's end time; the winner from the settled market."
      },
      "id": "three-readings-table",
      "kind": "published-table",
      "description": "We checked 101 rounds of Polymarket's bet on how many times Elon Musk posts on X in a week. Two days before a round closes, the crowd's favourite range wins 31% of the time, close to its 34% price. When the crowd is wrong, Musk has usually posted more than it expected, not fewer.",
      "articleUrl": "https://vultax.com/research/elon-musk-tweet-count-polymarket",
      "sectionUrl": "https://vultax.com/research/elon-musk-tweet-count-polymarket#three-readings",
      "publishedAt": "2026-10-06",
      "modifiedAt": "2026-10-06",
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      "isLive": false,
      "limitations": "Published research snapshots and calculations; these exports do not contain current quotes or live account data. Observation windows and populations are stated in the source captions and methodology. Missing metadata is unknown, not zero. Prices are what Polymarket's traders paid at the stated moments, not Vultax's view. Nothing here is a forecast or financial advice.",
      "downloads": {
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        "csv": "https://vultax.com/research/elon-musk-tweet-count-polymarket/data.csv?dataset=three-readings-table"
      }
    },
    {
      "title": "Price of a range two days before the close, against how often it won",
      "columns": [
        {
          "name": "Category",
          "unit": null
        },
        {
          "name": "Won",
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        [
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        [
          "10–20¢",
          13.9,
          15
        ],
        [
          "20–30¢",
          23.9,
          24.7
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        [
          "30–40¢",
          33.8,
          34.7
        ],
        [
          "40–50¢",
          41.7,
          42.8
        ]
      ],
      "measurementContext": "Every range on every seven-day board, 3 October 2025 to 25 September 2026, grouped by price. Groups with at least 10 ranges.",
      "sources": [
        {
          "label": "Polymarket — Elon Musk # tweets April 10 – April 17, 2026",
          "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/elon-musk-of-tweets-april-10-april-17",
          "note": "One seven-day round, with its rules and the range that won"
        },
        {
          "label": "Polymarket Gamma API — events",
          "url": "https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/events?slug=elon-musk-of-tweets-april-10-april-17",
          "note": "Round times, ranges, rules and results; read 25 September 2026"
        },
        {
          "label": "Polymarket CLOB — price history",
          "url": "https://docs.polymarket.com/",
          "note": "One-minute prices for every range at each reading"
        },
        {
          "label": "xtracker — Polymarket post counter",
          "url": "https://xtracker.polymarket.com/",
          "note": "The tally that settles each round"
        }
      ],
      "measurement": {
        "kind": "observed",
        "temporalCoverage": "2025-10-03/2026-09-25",
        "population": "Ranges on finished seven-day rounds",
        "methodology": "Last order-book price 48 hours before the round's end, grouped by price; the share of ranges in each group that won."
      },
      "id": "honest-odds-chart",
      "kind": "published-chart",
      "description": "We checked 101 rounds of Polymarket's bet on how many times Elon Musk posts on X in a week. Two days before a round closes, the crowd's favourite range wins 31% of the time, close to its 34% price. When the crowd is wrong, Musk has usually posted more than it expected, not fewer.",
      "articleUrl": "https://vultax.com/research/elon-musk-tweet-count-polymarket",
      "sectionUrl": "https://vultax.com/research/elon-musk-tweet-count-polymarket#honest-odds",
      "publishedAt": "2026-10-06",
      "modifiedAt": "2026-10-06",
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      "limitations": "Published research snapshots and calculations; these exports do not contain current quotes or live account data. Observation windows and populations are stated in the source captions and methodology. Missing metadata is unknown, not zero. Prices are what Polymarket's traders paid at the stated moments, not Vultax's view. Nothing here is a forecast or financial advice.",
      "downloads": {
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    {
      "title": "Where the range that won sat, counted from the favourite two days before the close",
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          "unit": null
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          "+1",
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          "+2",
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        [
          "+3",
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          "+4",
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          "+5",
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      "measurementContext": "Seven-day rounds, 3 October 2025 to 25 September 2026. 0 is the favourite's own range; +1 is the next range up, 20 posts more.",
      "sources": [
        {
          "label": "Polymarket — Elon Musk # tweets April 10 – April 17, 2026",
          "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/elon-musk-of-tweets-april-10-april-17",
          "note": "One seven-day round, with its rules and the range that won"
        },
        {
          "label": "Polymarket Gamma API — events",
          "url": "https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/events?slug=elon-musk-of-tweets-april-10-april-17",
          "note": "Round times, ranges, rules and results; read 25 September 2026"
        },
        {
          "label": "Polymarket CLOB — price history",
          "url": "https://docs.polymarket.com/",
          "note": "One-minute prices for every range at each reading"
        },
        {
          "label": "xtracker — Polymarket post counter",
          "url": "https://xtracker.polymarket.com/",
          "note": "The tally that settles each round"
        }
      ],
      "measurement": {
        "kind": "observed",
        "temporalCoverage": "2025-10-03/2026-09-25",
        "population": "101 seven-day rounds with price history 48 hours before the close",
        "methodology": "Position of the range that won minus the position of the favourite, ranges ordered by post count."
      },
      "id": "which-way-chart",
      "kind": "published-chart",
      "description": "We checked 101 rounds of Polymarket's bet on how many times Elon Musk posts on X in a week. Two days before a round closes, the crowd's favourite range wins 31% of the time, close to its 34% price. When the crowd is wrong, Musk has usually posted more than it expected, not fewer.",
      "articleUrl": "https://vultax.com/research/elon-musk-tweet-count-polymarket",
      "sectionUrl": "https://vultax.com/research/elon-musk-tweet-count-polymarket#which-way",
      "publishedAt": "2026-10-06",
      "modifiedAt": "2026-10-06",
      "version": "f63780b3d8b0c93d2716816f2a9ec84c09c9171959c46b5f158f59ad680b3802",
      "isLive": false,
      "limitations": "Published research snapshots and calculations; these exports do not contain current quotes or live account data. Observation windows and populations are stated in the source captions and methodology. Missing metadata is unknown, not zero. Prices are what Polymarket's traders paid at the stated moments, not Vultax's view. Nothing here is a forecast or financial advice.",
      "downloads": {
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        "csv": "https://vultax.com/research/elon-musk-tweet-count-polymarket/data.csv?dataset=which-way-chart"
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}