The favourite range won, two days before the close: 31%

We checked 101 rounds of Polymarket's bet on how many times Elon Musk posts on X in a week. Two days before a round closes, the crowd's favourite range wins 31% of the time, close to its 34% price. When the crowd is wrong, Musk has usually posted more than it expected, not fewer.

- The favourite won, six hours before the close: 67%
- Misses where Musk posted more, one day before the close: 76%
- Traded on the seven-day rounds: $1.16bn

Observed 2025-10-03 to 2026-09-25, population: 101 finished seven-day rounds.

Study: https://vultax.com/research/elon-musk-tweet-count-polymarket
Markdown: https://vultax.com/research/elon-musk-tweet-count-polymarket.md
Data: https://vultax.com/research/elon-musk-tweet-count-polymarket/data.json
Share card: https://vultax.com/og/article/research/elon-musk-tweet-count-polymarket
Live screen: https://app.vultax.com/predictions/topic/elon-musk-tweets

Vultax Research, Elon Musk Tweet Count on Polymarket: 101 Rounds Checked, the Favourite Wins 1 in 3, 2026-10-06, https://vultax.com/research/elon-musk-tweet-count-polymarket