{ "schemaVersion": "vultax-public-research-data-v1", "articleUrl": "https://vultax.com/research/fed-september-decision-coin-flip-polymarket-kalshi", "datasets": [ { "title": "Polymarket's October Fed contracts: 25 bp hike vs no change", "columns": [ { "name": "Category", "unit": null }, { "name": "25 bp hike", "unit": "%" }, { "name": "No change", "unit": "%" } ], "rows": [ [ "08-26", 23.5, 71.5 ], [ "08-27", 23.5, 71.5 ], [ "08-28", 25.5, 70.5 ], [ "08-29", 26.5, 70.5 ], [ "08-30", 26.5, 70.5 ], [ "08-31", 26.5, 70.5 ], [ "09-01", 26.5, 70.5 ], [ "09-02", 26.5, 70.5 ], [ "09-03", 26.5, 70.5 ], [ "09-04", 27.5, 67.5 ], [ "09-05", 27.5, 67.5 ], [ "09-06", 27.5, 67.5 ], [ "09-07", 29.5, 67.5 ], [ "09-08", 30.5, 67.5 ], [ "09-09", 30.5, 67.5 ], [ "09-10", 33.5, 65.5 ], [ "09-11", 37.5, 61.5 ], [ "09-12", 37.5, 61.5 ], [ "09-13", 37.5, 61.5 ], [ "09-14", 36.5, 61.5 ], [ "09-15", 37.5, 60.5 ], [ "09-16", 45.5, 52.5 ], [ "09-17", 49.5, 49.5 ], [ "09-18", 54.5, 43.5 ], [ "09-19", 54.5, 43.5 ], [ "09-20", 54.5, 43.5 ], [ "09-21", 52.5, 46.5 ], [ "09-22", 52.5, 45.5 ], [ "09-23", 64.5, 34.5 ], [ "09-24", 66.5, 32.5 ], [ "09-25", 62.5, 37.5 ] ], "measurementContext": "Last hourly price each UTC day, 26 August to 25 September 2026 (25 September at 16:00 UTC), from Polymarket's CLOB price history. The September hike was announced on 16 September.", "sources": [ { "label": "Polymarket: Fed decision in October?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/fed-decision-in-october-20260617190323537", "note": "Event and contract prices, Gamma and CLOB APIs; read 2026-09-25" }, { "label": "Polymarket: Fed decision in September?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/fed-decision-in-september-762", "note": "Event and contract prices, Gamma and CLOB APIs; read 2026-09-06 and at each checkpoint" }, { "label": "Federal Reserve: FOMC statement, 16 September 2026", "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260916a.htm", "note": "Target range raised 1/4 point to 3-3/4 to 4 percent; 12–0 vote" }, { "label": "Federal Reserve: meeting calendars", "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm", "note": "27–28 October and 8–9 December 2026 meetings; read 2026-09-23" }, { "label": "U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics: October 2026 release schedule", "url": "https://www.bls.gov/schedule/2026/10_sched.htm", "note": "Employment Situation 2 October, CPI 14 October, both 8:30 a.m. ET" }, { "label": "U.S. Treasury: daily par yield curve rates", "url": "https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve", "note": "Three-month bill, read by the live pack" }, { "label": "Federal Reserve Bank of New York: effective federal funds rate", "url": "https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/reference-rates/effr", "note": "Read by the live pack" }, { "label": "Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland: inflation nowcasting", "url": "https://www.clevelandfed.org/indicators-and-data/inflation-nowcasting", "note": "September 2026 CPI nowcast, updated 25 September" }, { "label": "Polymarket trading fees", "url": "https://docs.polymarket.com/trading/fees", "note": "Takers pay the fee; makers pay none" }, { "label": "Vultax: 1.6% of Polymarket wallets never sleep", "url": "https://vultax.com/research/polymarket-wallets-that-never-sleep-trading-cadence", "note": "The round-the-clock cohort" }, { "label": "Selected arithmetic checked in Lean 4.35.0", "url": "https://vultax.com/datasets/research-proof-library-2026-10-25/articles/fed-september-decision-coin-flip-polymarket-kalshi.md", "note": "Selected exact-rational calculations and displayed-value consistency checks, checked by Lean 4.35.0, Lean kernel replay and Nanoda. Not a proof of the underlying observations, statistical conclusions, legal claims or production code." }, { "label": "Per-article scope records and Lean package", "url": "https://vultax.com/datasets/research-proof-library-2026-10-25/README.md", "note": "Dated per-article scope records, Lean source, frozen permitted public inputs, checker logs and a reproducible ZIP. Covers only the scope stated in each record, not the whole study." } ], "measurement": { "kind": "observed", "temporalCoverage": "2026-08-26/2026-09-25", "population": "Polymarket's 'Fed Decision in October?' contracts", "methodology": "CLOB prices-history at hourly fidelity for each contract's Yes token; the last hourly price of each UTC day." }, "id": "october-meeting-chart", "kind": "published-chart", "description": "Polymarket priced the 16 September hike at 87.5% at two saved checkpoints. One missing midpoint makes the full five-outcome score unavailable. October captures and their quote coverage are preserved separately.", "articleUrl": "https://vultax.com/research/fed-september-decision-coin-flip-polymarket-kalshi", "sectionUrl": "https://vultax.com/research/fed-september-decision-coin-flip-polymarket-kalshi#october-meeting", "publishedAt": "2026-09-06", "modifiedAt": "2026-10-25", "version": "72ba62445e81f7d1f3999548da09a8e7a5a407307dd5a43edd04cf753c22f2f0", "isLive": false, "limitations": "Published research snapshots and calculations; these exports do not contain current quotes or live account data. Observation windows and populations are stated in the source captions and methodology. Missing metadata is unknown, not zero. Prices are Polymarket's quoted probabilities at the stated read time, not Vultax's view, and can change at any moment. Fill figures describe public on-chain activity observed by Vultax. Nothing here is a forecast or financial advice.", "downloads": { "json": "https://vultax.com/research/fed-september-decision-coin-flip-polymarket-kalshi/data.json?dataset=october-meeting-chart", "csv": "https://vultax.com/research/fed-september-decision-coin-flip-polymarket-kalshi/data.csv?dataset=october-meeting-chart" } } ] }