# Government Shutdown Odds: A Week In, Polymarket Put 5.5% on When the Record Shutdown Ended
Seven days into the 43-day shutdown of 2025, Polymarket gave 47.0% to an end by 18 October and 5.5% to the window it ended in, 12 to 15 November. In 2026 a market at 96.5% the day before resolved No on its rules.
Canonical URL: https://vultax.com/research/government-shutdown-odds-polymarket
Author: [Vultax Research Team](https://vultax.com/editorial-policy#who)
Published: 2026-11-06
Last public revision: 2026-11-06
Cite as: Vultax Research Team (2026). Government Shutdown Odds: A Week In, Polymarket Put 5.5% on When the Record Shutdown Ended. Vultax Research notes 2026-044, Vultax Research, Tallinn, 6 November 2026. https://vultax.com/research/government-shutdown-odds-polymarket
AI-assisted drafting, research and editing. Published by OmniOS OÜ. [How we use AI](https://vultax.com/editorial-policy#ai)
Published research snapshots and calculations; these exports do not contain current quotes or live account data. Observation windows and populations are stated in the source captions and methodology. Missing metadata is unknown, not zero. A reading of public market prices at stated times; not a forecast by Vultax and not advice to trade.
## Key figures
- The winning end-date window a week into the 2025 shutdown: 5.5% — 12 to 15 November, at 12:00 UTC on 7 October 2025. An end by 18 October had 47.0%
- Traded on 12 November in the end-day market: $13.1m — The most of any day. The market paid 13 November, the date of OPM's announcement under its rules
- The February 2026 market the day before: 96.5% — On 13 February 2026. Homeland Security's funding lapsed the next day; the market, which needed an OPM announcement of a new shutdown, resolved No
- Traded on the January 2026 shutdown market: $157.3m — A partial shutdown began on 31 January 2026 and ended on 3 February
## The short answer
The federal government shut down on 1 October 2025 and reopened after 43 days, the longest shutdown on record, when President Trump signed a funding bill on the evening of 12 November. Polymarket's market on when it would end spent most of those six weeks expecting it to end sooner. A week in, at 12:00 UTC on 7 October, it gave 47.0% to an end by 18 October and 5.5% to 12 to 15 November, the window it ended in.
The rules decided the payouts as much as the events. The market on the exact day paid 13 November, the date of the Office of Personnel Management's announcement, although the most money, $13.1m, was on 12 November. In February 2026 a market that stood at 96.5% the day before resolved No: Homeland Security's funding lapsed, but the market needed OPM to announce a new federal shutdown. This page reads the public price record; it is not a forecast.
## The run-up
Polymarket's market on a shutdown by 1 October 2025 opened in early September at 15.0%. It passed 50% on 20 September, stood at 74.0% on 30 September and paid Yes when the funding lapsed at midnight.
## Six weeks of soon
The end-date market opened on 6 October with ten windows. Its price kept moving the expected end later. On 14 October, an end by 3 November had 44.3%; on 28 October it had 14.5%, and the open-ended "November 16 or later" window led at 45.9%. That window peaked at 63.1% on 9 November 2025.
The window it ended in, 12 to 15 November, never passed 15.5% in October. It was 32.5% on 8 November, 51.0% on 10 November and 89.5% on 11 November. The House passed the bill 222-209 on the evening of 12 November and the President signed it the same night.
### When will the 2025 shutdown end? Three answers
Polymarket, daily readings at 12:00 UTC, 7 October to 12 November 2025. Percent.
| Category | 12 to 15 November (%) | By 3 November (%) | 16 November or later (%) |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 7 Oct | 5.5 | 76 | 12 |
| 8 Oct | 4.5 | 85 | 4 |
| 9 Oct | 6.5 | 75 | 8 |
| 10 Oct | 6 | 68.5 | 9.9 |
| 11 Oct | 6 | 66.5 | 8.9 |
| 12 Oct | 6 | 59.4 | 16.1 |
| 13 Oct | 6 | 51.4 | 20.8 |
| 14 Oct | 7 | 44.3 | 29.4 |
| 15 Oct | 7.5 | 51.8 | 18.5 |
| 16 Oct | 7.5 | 43.7 | 30.8 |
| 17 Oct | 7.5 | 43.1 | 31.4 |
| 18 Oct | 8.5 | 31.9 | 40.9 |
| 19 Oct | 9 | 29.5 | 42.3 |
| 20 Oct | 10 | 23.5 | 44.7 |
| 21 Oct | 6.5 | 50.2 | 25.1 |
| 22 Oct | 12.5 | 26.6 | 39.4 |
| 23 Oct | 13.5 | 27.8 | 38.4 |
| 24 Oct | 14 | 21.1 | 43.6 |
| 25 Oct | 13.5 | 17.5 | 44.7 |
| 26 Oct | 13.5 | 15.4 | 48.2 |
| 27 Oct | 12.5 | 14.4 | 50.7 |
| 28 Oct | 8.5 | 14.5 | 45.9 |
| 29 Oct | 10.5 | 9 | 45.2 |
| 30 Oct | 9.5 | 10.3 | 44.4 |
| 31 Oct | 15.5 | 3.4 | 37.7 |
| 1 Nov | 17 | 1.9 | 43.1 |
| 2 Nov | 18.5 | 1.2 | 46.9 |
| 3 Nov | 18.5 | 0.8 | 47.7 |
| 4 Nov | 17 | 0.3 | 47 |
| 5 Nov | 17.5 | 0.3 | 29.7 |
| 6 Nov | 33 | 0.3 | 43.5 |
| 7 Nov | 29.5 | 0.3 | 40 |
| 8 Nov | 32.5 | 0.3 | 49.6 |
| 9 Nov | 27 | 0.3 | 63.1 |
| 10 Nov | 51 | 0.3 | 15.9 |
| 11 Nov | 89.5 | 0.3 | 7.8 |
| 12 Nov | 97.3 | 0.3 | 2.8 |
[CSV](https://vultax.com/research/government-shutdown-odds-polymarket/data.csv?dataset=six-weeks-of-soon-chart), [JSON](https://vultax.com/research/government-shutdown-odds-polymarket/data.json?dataset=six-weeks-of-soon-chart)
## The day the money was on
A second market, opened on 10 November, asked for the exact day. Its rules pay the date on which OPM announces that the government is no longer shut down, not the date of the vote or the signature. 12 November drew $13.1m, the most of any day, and 13 November $6.0m. The bill was signed on the evening of 12 November; the market paid 13 November.
## 2026: four days, then a lapse that did not count
The 2025 bill funded most of the government only to 30 January 2026. Polymarket's market on a shutdown by 31 January, the largest of all these at $157.3m traded, was 8.5% on 24 January 2026, 79.5% on 25 January, and paid Yes. A partial shutdown began on Saturday 31 January and ended on 3 February when the President signed the funding bill. The duration market, which counts the first and last days, paid 4 days or more but not 5.
Homeland Security was funded only to 13 February. The market on a new shutdown by 14 February rose to 96.5% on 13 February. Homeland Security's funding lapsed at 12:01 a.m. Eastern on 14 February, while the rest of the government stayed funded. The market's rule was an OPM announcement of a new federal government shutdown; it fell to 13.8% that day and resolved No.
The 1 October 2026 deadline passed without a shutdown. The market on it was small, 17 thousand dollars traded, and resolved No.
## How to read a shutdown price
A shutdown market prices a definition as well as an event. Each one here names OPM's operating-status page as its source, and the words decide what counts.
- A date market pays the date of OPM's announcement, which can be a day after the signature.
- A duration market counts both the first and last days, so a shutdown from Saturday to Tuesday is 4 days.
- A lapse limited to one department may not produce the announcement a market needs, however sure it looks the day before.
- An end-date market spread over many windows makes the leading window look small: on 28 October no window but the open-ended one was above 20%.
## Method and limits
Prices are Polymarket's Yes prices from its public price-history API, daily values at 12:00 UTC. Volumes are as Polymarket reports them for each market. Rules are quoted from each market's description.
Dates and votes are from published reports. Vultax did not read OPM's operating-status archive itself. This page reads public prices; it is not a forecast by Vultax and not advice to trade.
## Questions
### How long was the 2025 government shutdown?
43 days, from 1 October to 12 November 2025, the longest on record. The President signed the funding bill on the evening of 12 November.
### What did Polymarket expect when the 2025 shutdown began?
A quick end. A week in, it gave 47.0% to an end by 18 October and 5.5% to 12 to 15 November, the window it ended in.
### Why did Polymarket's shutdown market pay 13 November?
Its rules pay the date on which OPM announces that the government is no longer shut down. The bill was signed on the evening of 12 November; the market paid 13 November.
### Was there a government shutdown in 2026?
A partial shutdown ran from 31 January to 3 February 2026. Homeland Security's funding lapsed on 14 February; Polymarket's market on a new federal shutdown by that date resolved No under its OPM rule.
## Sources and methodology
- [Polymarket: When will the Government shutdown end?](https://polymarket.com/event/when-will-the-government-shutdown-end-545) — Settled on 12 to 15 November.
- [Polymarket: What day will the Government Shutdown end?](https://polymarket.com/event/what-day-will-the-government-shutdown-end) — Settled on 13 November.
- [Polymarket: US government shutdown by October 1?](https://polymarket.com/event/us-government-shutdown-by-october-1)
- [Polymarket: US government shutdown Saturday? (31 January 2026)](https://polymarket.com/event/will-there-be-another-us-government-shutdown-by-january-31)
- [Polymarket: Government shutdown on Saturday? (14 February 2026)](https://polymarket.com/event/another-us-government-shutdown-by-february-14) — Resolved No.
- [Polymarket: How long will the Government Shutdown last?](https://polymarket.com/event/how-long-will-the-next-government-shutdown-last)
- [Polymarket API: price history](https://docs.polymarket.com/) — Daily Yes prices from the CLOB API. Vultax computed the readings.
- [Fox: Trump signs bill ending historic government shutdown](https://www.fox29.com/news/government-shutdown-coming-end-after-house-vote-bill-heads-trump) — 43 days; House vote 222-209 on 12 November 2025.
- [Nextgov: partial shutdown ends less than 4 days after it began](https://www.nextgov.com/policy/2026/02/partial-shutdown-ends-less-four-days-after-it-began/411166/)
- [ABC News: Trump signs government funding legislation, ending the partial shutdown](https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/wireStory/trump-signs-government-funding-legislation-ending-partial-shutdown-129829147) — 3 February 2026.
- [LeadingAge: DHS shuts down, no other agencies impacted](https://leadingage.org/dhs-shuts-down-no-other-agencies-impacted/) — The lapse of 14 February 2026.
- [NACo: DHS funding set to lapse](https://www.naco.org/news/dhs-funding-set-lapse-putting-key-county-partners-risk-partial-shutdown)
- [Per-article scope records and Lean package](https://vultax.com/datasets/research-proof-library-public-2026-10-28/README.md) — Historical scope records and selected Lean checks; the complete package is temporarily unavailable.