{ "schemaVersion": "vultax-public-research-data-v1", "articleUrl": "https://vultax.com/research/government-shutdown-odds-polymarket", "datasets": [ { "title": "When will the 2025 shutdown end? Three answers", "columns": [ { "name": "Category", "unit": null }, { "name": "12 to 15 November", "unit": "%" }, { "name": "By 3 November", "unit": "%" }, { "name": "16 November or later", "unit": "%" } ], "rows": [ [ "7 Oct", 5.5, 76, 12 ], [ "8 Oct", 4.5, 85, 4 ], [ "9 Oct", 6.5, 75, 8 ], [ "10 Oct", 6, 68.5, 9.9 ], [ "11 Oct", 6, 66.5, 8.9 ], [ "12 Oct", 6, 59.4, 16.1 ], [ "13 Oct", 6, 51.4, 20.8 ], [ "14 Oct", 7, 44.3, 29.4 ], [ "15 Oct", 7.5, 51.8, 18.5 ], [ "16 Oct", 7.5, 43.7, 30.8 ], [ "17 Oct", 7.5, 43.1, 31.4 ], [ "18 Oct", 8.5, 31.9, 40.9 ], [ "19 Oct", 9, 29.5, 42.3 ], [ "20 Oct", 10, 23.5, 44.7 ], [ "21 Oct", 6.5, 50.2, 25.1 ], [ "22 Oct", 12.5, 26.6, 39.4 ], [ "23 Oct", 13.5, 27.8, 38.4 ], [ "24 Oct", 14, 21.1, 43.6 ], [ "25 Oct", 13.5, 17.5, 44.7 ], [ "26 Oct", 13.5, 15.4, 48.2 ], [ "27 Oct", 12.5, 14.4, 50.7 ], [ "28 Oct", 8.5, 14.5, 45.9 ], [ "29 Oct", 10.5, 9, 45.2 ], [ "30 Oct", 9.5, 10.3, 44.4 ], [ "31 Oct", 15.5, 3.4, 37.7 ], [ "1 Nov", 17, 1.9, 43.1 ], [ "2 Nov", 18.5, 1.2, 46.9 ], [ "3 Nov", 18.5, 0.8, 47.7 ], [ "4 Nov", 17, 0.3, 47 ], [ "5 Nov", 17.5, 0.3, 29.7 ], [ "6 Nov", 33, 0.3, 43.5 ], [ "7 Nov", 29.5, 0.3, 40 ], [ "8 Nov", 32.5, 0.3, 49.6 ], [ "9 Nov", 27, 0.3, 63.1 ], [ "10 Nov", 51, 0.3, 15.9 ], [ "11 Nov", 89.5, 0.3, 7.8 ], [ "12 Nov", 97.3, 0.3, 2.8 ] ], "measurementContext": "Polymarket, daily readings at 12:00 UTC, 7 October to 12 November 2025. Percent.", "sources": [ { "label": "Polymarket: When will the Government shutdown end?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/when-will-the-government-shutdown-end-545", "note": "Settled on 12 to 15 November." }, { "label": "Polymarket: What day will the Government Shutdown end?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/what-day-will-the-government-shutdown-end", "note": "Settled on 13 November." }, { "label": "Polymarket: US government shutdown by October 1?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/us-government-shutdown-by-october-1", "note": null }, { "label": "Polymarket: US government shutdown Saturday? (31 January 2026)", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-there-be-another-us-government-shutdown-by-january-31", "note": null }, { "label": "Polymarket: Government shutdown on Saturday? (14 February 2026)", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/another-us-government-shutdown-by-february-14", "note": "Resolved No." }, { "label": "Polymarket: How long will the Government Shutdown last?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/how-long-will-the-next-government-shutdown-last", "note": null }, { "label": "Polymarket API: price history", "url": "https://docs.polymarket.com/", "note": "Daily Yes prices from the CLOB API. Vultax computed the readings." }, { "label": "Fox: Trump signs bill ending historic government shutdown", "url": "https://www.fox29.com/news/government-shutdown-coming-end-after-house-vote-bill-heads-trump", "note": "43 days; House vote 222-209 on 12 November 2025." }, { "label": "Nextgov: partial shutdown ends less than 4 days after it began", "url": "https://www.nextgov.com/policy/2026/02/partial-shutdown-ends-less-four-days-after-it-began/411166/", "note": null }, { "label": "ABC News: Trump signs government funding legislation, ending the partial shutdown", "url": "https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/wireStory/trump-signs-government-funding-legislation-ending-partial-shutdown-129829147", "note": "3 February 2026." }, { "label": "LeadingAge: DHS shuts down, no other agencies impacted", "url": "https://leadingage.org/dhs-shuts-down-no-other-agencies-impacted/", "note": "The lapse of 14 February 2026." }, { "label": "NACo: DHS funding set to lapse", "url": "https://www.naco.org/news/dhs-funding-set-lapse-putting-key-county-partners-risk-partial-shutdown", "note": null }, { "label": "Per-article scope records and Lean package", "url": "https://vultax.com/datasets/research-proof-library-public-2026-10-28/README.md", "note": "Historical scope records and selected Lean checks; the complete package is temporarily unavailable." } ], "measurement": { "kind": "observed", "temporalCoverage": "2025-10-07/2025-11-12", "population": "Yes prices of the date windows in Polymarket's When will the Government shutdown end? market", "methodology": "Last daily price at or before 12:00 UTC; the early windows are summed." }, "id": "six-weeks-of-soon-chart", "kind": "published-chart", "description": "Seven days into the 43-day shutdown of 2025, Polymarket gave 47.0% to an end by 18 October and 5.5% to the window it ended in, 12 to 15 November. In 2026 a market at 96.5% the day before resolved No on its rules.", "articleUrl": "https://vultax.com/research/government-shutdown-odds-polymarket", "sectionUrl": "https://vultax.com/research/government-shutdown-odds-polymarket#six-weeks-of-soon", "publishedAt": "2026-11-06", "modifiedAt": "2026-11-06", "version": "583d20f295ae84ae41ae33947dfaa8c08e23cf3c9cd46c16cd0d65906f6ee0c3", "isLive": false, "limitations": "Published research snapshots and calculations; these exports do not contain current quotes or live account data. Observation windows and populations are stated in the source captions and methodology. Missing metadata is unknown, not zero. A reading of public market prices at stated times; not a forecast by Vultax and not advice to trade.", "downloads": { "json": "https://vultax.com/research/government-shutdown-odds-polymarket/data.json?dataset=six-weeks-of-soon-chart", "csv": "https://vultax.com/research/government-shutdown-odds-polymarket/data.csv?dataset=six-weeks-of-soon-chart" } } ] }