The winning end-date window a week into the 2025 shutdown: 5.5%

Seven days into the 43-day shutdown of 2025, Polymarket gave 47.0% to an end by 18 October and 5.5% to the window it ended in, 12 to 15 November. In 2026 a market at 96.5% the day before resolved No on its rules.

- Traded on 12 November in the end-day market: $13.1m
- The February 2026 market the day before: 96.5%
- Traded on the January 2026 shutdown market: $157.3m

Observed 2025-10-07 to 2025-11-12, population: Yes prices of the date windows in Polymarket's When will the Government shutdown end? market.

Study: https://vultax.com/research/government-shutdown-odds-polymarket
Markdown: https://vultax.com/research/government-shutdown-odds-polymarket.md
Data: https://vultax.com/research/government-shutdown-odds-polymarket/data.json
Share card: https://vultax.com/og/article/research/government-shutdown-odds-polymarket
Live screen: https://app.vultax.com/predictions/topic/us-economy

Vultax Research Team, Government Shutdown Odds: A Week In, Polymarket Put 5.5% on When the Record Shutdown Ended, 2026-11-06, https://vultax.com/research/government-shutdown-odds-polymarket