{
  "schemaVersion": "vultax-public-research-data-v1",
  "articleUrl": "https://vultax.com/research/how-long-polymarket-takes-to-settle-markets",
  "datasets": [
    {
      "title": "Bigger markets are disputed more, not settled slower",
      "columns": [
        {
          "name": "Markets that traded",
          "unit": null
        },
        {
          "name": "Markets",
          "unit": null
        },
        {
          "name": "Disputed",
          "unit": null
        },
        {
          "name": "Share disputed",
          "unit": null
        },
        {
          "name": "Median hours after end",
          "unit": null
        }
      ],
      "rows": [
        [
          "Any amount",
          "110,576",
          "89",
          "0.08%",
          "2.2"
        ],
        [
          "$10,000 or more",
          "7,783",
          "17",
          "0.22%",
          "2.4"
        ],
        [
          "$100,000 or more",
          "2,196",
          "11",
          "0.50%",
          "1.8"
        ],
        [
          "$1 million or more",
          "300",
          "2",
          "0.67%",
          "0.7"
        ]
      ],
      "measurementContext": "Same markets as above, by lifetime volume. Median hours cover markets that closed after their scheduled end.",
      "sources": [
        {
          "label": "Polymarket Gamma API — closed events",
          "url": "https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/events/keyset?closed=true&tag_slug=politics",
          "note": "Closed markets with scheduled end, closing time and resolution states, read 13 September 2026"
        },
        {
          "label": "Polymarket — resolution",
          "url": "https://docs.polymarket.com/concepts/resolution",
          "note": "Proposer bond, escalation to UMA; read 2026-09-12"
        },
        {
          "label": "Polymarket Help Center — how are markets disputed",
          "url": "https://help.polymarket.com/en/articles/13364551-how-are-markets-disputed",
          "note": "Two-hour challenge period, discussion and vote timing, finality"
        },
        {
          "label": "UMA — how UMA's oracle works",
          "url": "https://docs.uma.xyz/protocol-overview/how-does-umas-oracle-work",
          "note": "Commit and reveal voting periods"
        },
        {
          "label": "UMA — Managed proposers update (Nov 2025)",
          "url": "https://blog.uma.xyz/articles/managed-proposers-update",
          "note": "Whitelisted proposers; incorrect proposals down 59%, disputes down 68% in the first month"
        },
        {
          "label": "CoinDesk — Polymarket and UMA communities lock horns after $7M Ukraine bet resolves (27 Mar 2025)",
          "url": "https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2025/03/27/polymarket-uma-communities-lock-horns-after-usd7m-ukraine-bet-resolves",
          "note": "Disputed minerals-deal market"
        },
        {
          "label": "Decrypt — Polymarket rules No on $237M bet over Zelenskyy's suit (9 Jul 2025)",
          "url": "https://decrypt.co/329210/polymarket-rules-no-237m-bet-zelenskyys",
          "note": "UMA ruling on the suit market"
        },
        {
          "label": "Kalshi Help Center — market rules",
          "url": "https://help.kalshi.com/markets/markets-101/market-rules",
          "note": "Outcomes determined by Kalshi's markets team"
        },
        {
          "label": "Vultax: Kalshi–Polymarket arbitrage after fees",
          "url": "https://vultax.com/research/kalshi-polymarket-arbitrage-gaps-after-fees",
          "note": "Where the two venues' rules differ"
        }
      ],
      "measurement": {
        "kind": "observed",
        "temporalCoverage": "2026-08-15/2026-09-10",
        "population": "110,576 closed Polymarket markets",
        "methodology": "Dispute share and median settlement time by volume tier."
      },
      "id": "by-size-table",
      "kind": "published-table",
      "description": "Vultax measured every Polymarket market that ended between 15 August and 10 September 2026. Most settled within hours of their scheduled end, 37% closed early because the result was already known, and 89 were disputed, rare overall but most common on geopolitics and big markets.",
      "articleUrl": "https://vultax.com/research/how-long-polymarket-takes-to-settle-markets",
      "sectionUrl": "https://vultax.com/research/how-long-polymarket-takes-to-settle-markets#by-size",
      "publishedAt": "2026-09-17",
      "modifiedAt": "2026-09-18",
      "version": "17382b3506efde6bc33eddf99de150f4d8aef8cb63b5a1919447f6cc28626531",
      "isLive": false,
      "limitations": "Published research snapshots and calculations; these exports do not contain current quotes or live account data. Observation windows and populations are stated in the source captions and methodology. Missing metadata is unknown, not zero. Figures describe Polymarket markets with a scheduled end between 15 August and 10 September 2026, found through nine topic tags. Settlement times are closing times from Polymarket's data, not tested payouts. Nothing here is a recommendation to trade or financial advice.",
      "downloads": {
        "json": "https://vultax.com/research/how-long-polymarket-takes-to-settle-markets/data.json?dataset=by-size-table",
        "csv": "https://vultax.com/research/how-long-polymarket-takes-to-settle-markets/data.csv?dataset=by-size-table"
      }
    }
  ]
}