{ "schemaVersion": "vultax-public-research-data-v1", "articleUrl": "https://vultax.com/research/how-long-polymarket-takes-to-settle-markets", "datasets": [ { "title": "Why the September median is 4.0 hours: 98% of the listings were sports", "columns": [ { "name": "Category", "unit": null }, { "name": "Median hours, 15 Aug to 10 Sep", "unit": null }, { "name": "Median hours, 11 to 18 Sep", "unit": null }, { "name": "Closed markets behind the September median", "unit": null }, { "name": "Still open when read", "unit": null } ], "rows": [ [ "All categories", "2.2", "4.0", "69,630", "1,468 of 121,432" ], [ "Sports", "4.0", "4.0", "67,786", "1,178 of 118,597" ], [ "Crypto, excluding up-or-down", "0.2", "0.2", "498", "0 of 518" ], [ "Finance", "0.4", "0.4", "556", "11 of 705" ], [ "Economy", "10.0", "10.6", "56", "0 of 75" ], [ "Tech", "6.1", "3.4", "45", "11 of 125" ], [ "Politics", "8.6", "2.3", "438", "230 of 893" ], [ "Geopolitics", "73.7", "39.5", "32", "12 of 74" ] ], "measurementContext": "Median hours from scheduled end to closing, for markets that closed at or after their scheduled end. The September check returned one esports listing and 444 with none of the topic tags; they count in the first row only.", "sources": [ { "label": "Polymarket Gamma API — closed events", "url": "https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/events/keyset?closed=true&tag_slug=politics", "note": "Closed markets with scheduled end, closing time and resolution states, read 13 September 2026" }, { "label": "Polymarket Gamma API — market list", "url": "https://docs.polymarket.com/api-reference/markets/list-markets-keyset-pagination", "note": "Open and closed listings with a scheduled end between 11 and 18 September 2026, read 19 September 2026" }, { "label": "Polymarket — Sweden next prime minister market", "url": "https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?slug=will-ulf-kristersson-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-sweden", "note": "End date and written resolution rule, read 19 September 2026" }, { "label": "Polymarket — resolution", "url": "https://docs.polymarket.com/concepts/resolution", "note": "Proposer bond, escalation to UMA; read 2026-09-12" }, { "label": "Polymarket Help Center — how are markets disputed", "url": "https://help.polymarket.com/en/articles/13364551-how-are-markets-disputed", "note": "Two-hour challenge period, discussion and vote timing, finality" }, { "label": "UMA — how UMA's oracle works", "url": "https://docs.uma.xyz/protocol-overview/how-does-umas-oracle-work", "note": "Commit and reveal voting periods" }, { "label": "UMA — Managed proposers update (Nov 2025)", "url": "https://blog.uma.xyz/articles/managed-proposers-update", "note": "Whitelisted proposers; incorrect proposals down 59%, disputes down 68% in the first month" }, { "label": "CoinDesk — Polymarket and UMA communities lock horns after $7M Ukraine bet resolves (27 Mar 2025)", "url": "https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2025/03/27/polymarket-uma-communities-lock-horns-after-usd7m-ukraine-bet-resolves", "note": "Disputed minerals-deal market" }, { "label": "Decrypt — Polymarket rules No on $237M bet over Zelenskyy's suit (9 Jul 2025)", "url": "https://decrypt.co/329210/polymarket-rules-no-237m-bet-zelenskyys", "note": "UMA ruling on the suit market" }, { "label": "Kalshi Help Center — market rules", "url": "https://help.kalshi.com/markets/markets-101/market-rules", "note": "Outcomes determined by Kalshi's markets team" }, { "label": "Vultax: Kalshi–Polymarket arbitrage after fees", "url": "https://vultax.com/research/kalshi-polymarket-arbitrage-gaps-after-fees", "note": "Where the two venues' rules differ" }, { "label": "Selected arithmetic checked in Lean 4.35.0", "url": "https://vultax.com/datasets/research-proof-library-2026-10-25/articles/how-long-polymarket-takes-to-settle-markets.md", "note": "Selected exact-rational calculations and displayed-value consistency checks, checked by Lean 4.35.0, Lean kernel replay and Nanoda. Not a proof of the underlying observations, statistical conclusions, legal claims or production code." }, { "label": "Per-article scope records and Lean package", "url": "https://vultax.com/datasets/research-proof-library-2026-10-25/README.md", "note": "Dated per-article scope records, Lean source, frozen permitted public inputs, checker logs and a reproducible ZIP. Covers only the scope stated in each record, not the whole study." } ], "measurement": { "kind": "observed", "temporalCoverage": "2026-08-15/2026-09-18", "population": "69,072 markets that closed after their scheduled end in the main window; 69,630 in the September check", "methodology": "Closing time minus scheduled end, median by first matching topic tag. The September check reads Polymarket's market list with open and closed queries; the closed query was read up to 120,000 records." }, "id": "september-median-table", "kind": "published-table", "description": "Vultax measured every Polymarket market that ended between 15 August and 10 September 2026. Most settled within hours of their scheduled end, 37% closed early because the result was already known, and 89 were disputed, rare overall but most common on geopolitics and big markets.", "articleUrl": "https://vultax.com/research/how-long-polymarket-takes-to-settle-markets", "sectionUrl": "https://vultax.com/research/how-long-polymarket-takes-to-settle-markets#september-median", "publishedAt": "2026-09-17", "modifiedAt": "2026-10-25", "version": "f3473a9df84daedc4f197b1d1d65106053bf052861ed6abea2992794bbdf9674", "isLive": false, "limitations": "Published research snapshots and calculations; these exports do not contain current quotes or live account data. Observation windows and populations are stated in the source captions and methodology. Missing metadata is unknown, not zero. Figures describe Polymarket markets with a scheduled end between 15 August and 10 September 2026, found through nine topic tags, and a second pull of listings ending 11 to 18 September 2026. Settlement times are closing times from Polymarket's data, not tested payouts. Nothing here is a recommendation to trade or financial advice.", "downloads": { "json": "https://vultax.com/research/how-long-polymarket-takes-to-settle-markets/data.json?dataset=september-median-table", "csv": "https://vultax.com/research/how-long-polymarket-takes-to-settle-markets/data.csv?dataset=september-median-table" } } ] }