$10,000 on a Polymarket long shot, paid above the screen price: 24 to 69¢

A prediction-market price is what a $1 contract costs, not a vote share. On seven thin midterm contracts in September 2026 a $10,000 buy paid 24 to 69¢ above the screen price, and political long shots won more often than priced. Five checks, and how Vultax will score 13,186 midterm contracts.

- Midterm races with a favourite at 90¢ or more: 402 of 507
- Favourite-longshot slope, Polymarket political contracts: 0.91
- Midterm scorecard manifest, SHA-256, first eight characters: 5b607bde

Observed 2026-09-12T18:51Z to 2026-09-13T23:21Z, population: 10 Polymarket midterm contracts from a study of 65.

Study: https://vultax.com/research/how-to-read-election-odds
Markdown: https://vultax.com/research/how-to-read-election-odds.md
Data: https://vultax.com/research/how-to-read-election-odds/data.json
Share card: https://vultax.com/og/article/research/how-to-read-election-odds
Live screen: https://app.vultax.com/predictions/topic/midterms-2026

Vultax Research, How to Read Election Odds: Five Checks Before You Trust a Prediction-Market Price, 2026-10-28, https://vultax.com/research/how-to-read-election-odds