{
  "schemaVersion": "vultax-public-research-data-v1",
  "articleUrl": "https://vultax.com/research/kalshi-quote-coverage-sensitivity",
  "datasets": [
    {
      "title": "Missingness needs its own table",
      "columns": [
        {
          "name": "Window",
          "unit": null
        },
        {
          "name": "Expected hours",
          "unit": null
        },
        {
          "name": "Valid quote pairs",
          "unit": null
        },
        {
          "name": "No returned candle",
          "unit": null
        },
        {
          "name": "Returned but invalid",
          "unit": null
        }
      ],
      "rows": [
        [
          "pre",
          "10,680",
          "8,076",
          "2,436",
          "168"
        ],
        [
          "post",
          "10,680",
          "2,790",
          "7,495",
          "395"
        ]
      ],
      "measurementContext": "The categories sum to the expected hours in each window. Invalid includes boundary, absent-side, crossed or nonfinite quotes.",
      "sources": [
        {
          "label": "Original Vultax incentive study",
          "url": "https://vultax.com/research/kalshi-liquidity-rewards-after-incentives-end",
          "note": "Frozen sample, original protocol, raw API responses and original limitations."
        },
        {
          "label": "Kalshi historical candlestick API",
          "url": "https://docs.kalshi.com/api-reference/market/get-market-candlesticks",
          "note": "Hourly bid/ask close fields; missing observations retained as missing."
        }
      ],
      "measurement": {
        "kind": "observed",
        "temporalCoverage": "2026-09-05/2026-09-15",
        "population": "445 selected Kalshi markets, 408 series, ending incentive runs",
        "methodology": "Exploratory sensitivity analysis of the published sample, using five paired valid-hour thresholds."
      },
      "id": "missingness-table",
      "kind": "published-table",
      "description": "In the same 445-market incentive sample, an 18-hour coverage rule keeps 36 markets and a two-cent median widening; complete coverage keeps 11 and a zero median change.",
      "articleUrl": "https://vultax.com/research/kalshi-quote-coverage-sensitivity",
      "sectionUrl": "https://vultax.com/research/kalshi-quote-coverage-sensitivity#missingness",
      "publishedAt": "2026-09-20",
      "modifiedAt": "2026-09-20",
      "version": "7cbe93e841a78558f5790852c7e54db8fcd550f95017e7d42aa08cc24882dcd0",
      "isLive": false,
      "limitations": "Published research snapshots and calculations; these exports do not contain current quotes or live account data. Observation windows and populations are stated in the source captions and methodology. Missing metadata is unknown, not zero. Exploratory reanalysis of a previously published sample. Same underlying observations; no independent replication, no matched controls, and no causal treatment estimate. Missing candles do not establish absent liquidity.",
      "downloads": {
        "json": "https://vultax.com/research/kalshi-quote-coverage-sensitivity/data.json?dataset=missingness-table",
        "csv": "https://vultax.com/research/kalshi-quote-coverage-sensitivity/data.csv?dataset=missingness-table"
      }
    }
  ]
}